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Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Mar 10 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD on new evidence showing (again!) that mask mandates in primary and secondary schools do reduce covid rates from the US Center for Disease Control (CDC)

(NB K-12 means kindergarten to yr 12 (17/18 yrs))

full report here: cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…

1/4
They compared schools with full, partial & no mask mandates over autumn 2021 in the state of Arkansas and also before & after in schools that switched from no masks to masks.

Using a single state means similar contexts, background infection rates, vaccination rates 2/4
They found clear evidence that full mask mandates were better than partial ones were better than no masks. Whichever way they looked at the data, they found the same effect.

On average full masks reduced transmission by 23% - a significant amount! 3/4 ImageImageImage
It's not credible to say that masks in schools don't help reduce transmission.

We've now had 2 terms of educational disruption & more evidence that immunity lasts less long in kids


We should keep masks in school until community rates are much lower. 4/4
And here is another very large study out of the US showing similar things

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Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 10
I wrote about 3 linked lessons from Covid that we need to learn for the future in this editorial for @ScienceMagazine

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

1/5
1. Massive, unwieldy, intransigent systems fundamentally changed because of the need to control Covid.

Implies that most sticky problems remain unsolved cos of "won't" *not* "can't" -> we must demand honesty from govts about which solutions are considered necessary & why 2/5 Image
2. Some sticky problems aren't even recognised as solvable! e.g. annual deaths from flu & pneumonia. These reduced massively last 2 years .

Instead of using flu as a benchmark for Covid, question the benchmark.

Instead of return to normal, ask if normal can't be better. 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 4
Quick THREAD on current Covid situation in UK

TLDR: cases, hospitalisations and deaths going down everywhere except Scotland where all are going up. BUT admissions going up last few days in England too.

1/8
Prevalence from ONS infection survey shows that it's falling everywhere *except* Scotland where it's going up quickly.

ALL nations are still much higher than at any point pre Omicron. 2/8 Image
Hospitalisations show exactly the same pattern with Scotland going up sharply.

While overall deaths within 28 days in UK are still falling, in Scotland they have started rising again.

Scottish cases increases have been in older adults H/T @PaulMainwood 3/8 ImageImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 2
THREAD on all the reasons why I think Omicron does *not* signal the end of the pandemic

TLDR: vaccines & mitigations can hasten its end but we're not done yet & Omicron is just another milepost on the road.

So here goes: Omicron is the 4th major variant to dominate here 1/10
But variants aren't single blocks either - Delta in the UK ended up being mostly subtype AY.4 and AY.4.2 was taking over when Omicron came - and now BA.2 is taking over from BA.1.1. which took over from BA.1. 2/10
Covid evolves rapidly, but this isn't straightforward.

None of the main variants evolved *from* each other - instead so far they are all distinct, becoming gradually fitter via subvariants until replaced by an entirely new variant. 3/10

H/T
Read 10 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 11
THREAD: quick overview of where we are with Covid in UK - and end of a dashboard era...

TLDR: going to move to using ONS infection survey only from now on, cases still high, trend uncertain, hospitalisations and deaths falling 1/12
firstly, vaccination isn't really happening - very low numbers of 1st, 2nd or 3rd vaccinations now 2/12
PCR tests are dropping like a stone - and this is what we used to calculate to positivity rates. So they are becoming more unreliable. And then, different nations are now changing how they are reporting nations and Scotland is stopping positivity reporting. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 10
THREAD: I keep being asked when we can go "back to normal" or "like it was before". My personal thoughts:

We've added a new disease to our population, more infectious and more severe than flu.

The world pre 2020 no longer exists - we may want it to, but it just doesn't. 1/13
Vaccines are amazing but do wane - esp vs sympomatic infection. Immunity from infection wanes too.

Surely Omicron has proven that high levels of antibodies in your population are no guarantee against v high levels of illness & disruption. 2/13
We *could* act as we used to & accept millions of people getting sick once or twice a year. Yearly education, business disruption. And gradually, a slightly sicker pop'n. That seems to be the current plan in UK and e.g. US.

But that's NOT the *old normal* - it's worse 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 4
THREAD - STATE OF COVID IN UK

Quite long but hopefully comprehensive thread on where we are...

TLDR: cases increasingly hard to interpret, hosp & deaths declining, schools big issue, new (but not more severe) subvariant growing 1/18
Vax - vaccinations have dropped off a cliff in 2022. 80K a day vs almost 1 million before Xmas.

And it's not cos we've finished! Esp NI has only 50% of pop boosted.

We need to keep trying to increase uptake - messaging that pandemic is over and omicron mild doesn't help. 2/18
PCR tests have dropped off massively too since we've stopped requiring confirmatory tests for LFDs. *Reported* use of LFDs is also dropping.

Some is less infection, but not all. Will make both reported cases & positivity rate (based on PCR) hard to interpret. 3/18
Read 19 tweets

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