#Ukraine_EU: Macron has openly questioned the rationality of starting Ukraine's accession procedures now. However, he suggested that Ukraine should not be rejected either. This means that the EU is ready to signal an EU perspective in a veiled or direct way. It is important to ⤵️
note that Macron has positioned himself in favour of a regional perspective (to be translated as the "in package" approach) that includes Moldova and Georgia. He focused on Moldova and opposed abandoning it, stressing the energy vulnerability and the problem of Transnistria ⤵️
(as leverages ins Russia's hands). Macron could not be more explicit in indicating that Moldova and Georgia will receive similar treatment to Ukraine in terms of the EU perspective. ⤵️
However, he made it clear that the EU project must be reformed geographically speaking, without going into too much detail about the future "multi-speed Europe" in which Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia can have a seat at the table.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Mar 10
#Russia_Sanctions: Faced with technological sanctions, Moscow is restricting the re-export of previously imported goods (200 items), including IT, medical equipment, transport, etc. Restrictive measures are in effect until the end of 2022. ⤵️
Putin also agreed to the initiative to introduce "external management" of companies (about 60 entities) that left Russia in solidarity with Ukraine or for fear of the consequences of sanctions.
The import substitution measures are emerging. The Moscow administration opened a credit line of 500 million rubles (nearly 4 million euros) to finance the establishment of local fast-food chains (probably to replace the temporarily closed McDonald's restaurants, etc.).
Read 6 tweets
Mar 10
#Russia_Sanctions: The pro-Kremlin organization “Public Consumer Initiative” drafted an anti-sanctions list of Western companies that closed their businesses in Russia. Against them it is proposed to apply 3 types of measures: asset freezing, external governance or⤵️
nationalization. The initiative is not transposed into law. According to the authors, the prosecution will have to enforce it. The list will be completed with the names of new companies coming out of Russia. At this point, the initiative refers to 59 companies, including⤵️
Volkswagen, Apple, IKEA, Microsoft, Shell, McDonald's, Porsche, Toyota, H&M, etc. The Russian side claims that these companies made commitments to the Russian state, labor, customers, etc. , which is worth 40 billion euros.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
#Russia_War: The Ukrainian authorities are organizing the evacuation from Odesa by train (towards Ismail) to Romania under ship control (the port city of Tulcea). This means that the Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Odessa or planning to mount airstrikes ⤵️
(which will cause destruction of the city that Russia would like to avoid because of the significance of Odesa to the "русский мир"). In any case, if Odessa falls under Russian occupation then they reach the Transnistria region (Moldova). This in no way means that ⤵️
Russia wants to invade Moldova (as some analysts insist). The most that can happen is that the Russian forces in Ukraine receive some support from Transnistria or even enter the separatist region if necessary. Yesterday, in a conversation with a Swiss journalist, I explained ⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Mar 9
#Russia_War: The scale of destruction of the Russian invasion of Ukraine indicates that Moscow is deliberately incurring massive costs for the future reconstruction of Ukraine. In addition, it makes it inhospitable by causing the depopulation of the destroyed areas. ⤵️
The effects may be far from just demographic changes if the refugee flows reach the estimated 5 million people or even higher. This will put anti-corruption reform and other structural reforms in the background. Consequently, democratic institutions can also take a hit. ⤵️
Putin knows that very well. As Zakharova confessed, Russia is not interested in changing the ruling forces in Ukraine (any longer). If this can be trusted, then Russia's approach is to occupy the south, where possible, and destroy the urban areas of northeastern Ukraine. ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
#Russia: The Central Bank introduced limitations on commercial banks to sell foreign currency to the population for 5 months from May 9. In the same period, the population will be able to withdraw up to 10k dollars from each of the accounts opened in any of the Russian banks.⤵️
Amounts above this threshold will be issued in rubles at the existing exchange rate (ie a highly valued ruble). It is worth remembering that the main Russian airlines suspended international flights from March 8. However, the media reported that Russian citizens are flocking to⤵️
Armenia, Georgia and other countries near Russian borders, are likely to avoid the fallout from Western sanctions. However, ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
#Russia_Sanctions: The "yuanization" of Russian banking operations is inevitable. Banks plan to issue loans in yuan. Due to the low circulation of Chinese currency at the moment, customers will still use rubles. At this time there is no mechanism to make customer payments and ⤵️
transfers in yuan in the national banking system. If consumer demand grows, banking authorities will give the yuan a leading role as payment currency, replacing the dollar. This comes as a result of ongoing "de-dollarization" under the sanctions ⤵️
for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia is already using the Chinese international payment system UnionPay to replace Visa and MasterCard which have suspended operations for Russian customers.
Read 4 tweets

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