Luckily for freedom and the people of Ukraine, the war is going reasonably well for Ukraine (horribly badly for Russia) in a general sense, after first two weeks.
Slava Ukraini, Heroiam Slava
But this is VERY early, and much..
The Ukrainian leadership was prepared, and has led the early war well. Ukrainian soldiers are fighting bravely & hard
Russian battle plan was ... perhaps too optimistic (at least in North) and bogged down. In South has had very hard time making slow progress.
Russia dominates in air but with heavy air losses, seems to be moving to night flight operations
As the Russian army seems to be getting its ass kicked in numerous battles, they are turning in a cowardly way to bombard civilians instead. That is barbaric #JeSuisMariupol
The early support from neighbors, Europeans, Americans and rest of world has been promising and numbers reasonably strong
The delivery of much-needed Mig 29 fighter jets (initially from Poland) is a total political mess that has to be resolved fast
I am afraid that this will be a relatively long war, months, possibly years. And as Russia fails to reach military objectives, they will turn to ever worse atrocities towards helpless civilians
Russian invasion of Ukraine involves a 40 mile (64km) long convoy of Russian military vehicles, that has been stalled for 2 weeks outside Kyiv the capital city of Ukraine. Some of the convoy is dispersing. I said convoy was a military mystery. Let's dig into it.
Convoy Thread 2/
From a military point of view, a convoy of military vehicles is a HIGH PRIORITY target, an 'easy' target. And prone to ambush. Ambushes are standard warfare against convoys. For example convoys of Soviet invasion to Afghanistan were regularly ambushed by Taliban
Convoy Thread 3/
The way to ambush a convoy is to stop it at a congested road like mountain or forest road. Destroy first vehicle & last vehicle. Prevent escape. Then destroy whole convoy
Finland vs Soviets in Winter War, Battle of Raate Road is classic case of how this is done
Here is your solution to Polish Mig 29 'transfer point' problem
Take a flight of 7 C 5 Galaxies from 436th at Dover. Fly them empty to Poland. They can fly 54 tons on the Atlantic route. That is 4 Mig 29s per Galaxy
Buy the Polish Mig 29s at 100 dollars per jet. Remove wings. Plane weighs 11 tons empty & will fit in the hold. Load 4 Migs each to seven C 5s. Fly them to Dover. Roll Migs out with Polish markings. Have Polish Ambassador & press present. Hand over. Paint them with USAF insignia
Roll the AMERICAN OWNED Mig 29s in US markings back into the C 5 Galaxies, while world press watches. Refuel the Galaxies. Fly them back to Europe. Now fly over NATO air space to Ukraine. Fly a NATO E3 Sentry AWACS plane in escort, behind the Galaxies to see their flight is clear
The International Red Cross has confirmed promised 'humanitarian corridor' offered to Ukrainian civilians trapped in city of Mariupol, had been mined by Russia. Landmines to maim civilians
I need to explain this industrial scale sadistic torture
Mariupol is a city of nearly half a million. Same size roughly as Tampa or Minneapolis, a bit bigger than New Orleans or Cleveland. It is at SouthEastern edge of Ukraine near Russian border so Russian army quickly encircled the city. Laid siege to it
Mariupol Minefield Thread 3/
Immediately on invading Ukraine, Putin shut down electricity, gas, food & water to Mariupol. And cut off the HEAT. Mariupol is about same latitude as Toronto, Ottawa and Winnipeg. It is winter & Mariupol is colder than Detroit, Chicago or Minneapolis
Let me explain the plan to send Mig 29 jets from Poland (and Romania etc) to Ukraine's air force
This photo has both jets, in Polish insignia. The two planes in middle are US made F 16 Fighting Falcon jets. The outer planes Russian made Mig 29 Fulcrums
Mig 29 and F 16 Thread 2/
The Ukrainian air force is SEVERELY outnumbered, more than TEN to ONE. Ten Russian fighter jets for every one Ukrainian fighter jet. They need desperately, urgently DOZENS of jets, just to help the odds a LITTLE BIT (to about 9 to 1 against)
Mig 29 and F 16 Thread 3/
This is the Mig 29 Fulcrum, a Russian-made jet fighter from the 1980s, that Ukraine's air force flies, in Ukraine air force colors. It is their best jet fighter. In very rough terms, is comparable to early models of F 16 Fighting Falcon of US Air Force
Let's do a Thread. I am not a war correspondent. I am not there in Ukraine. My sources are as incomplete as your sources, so relying on 24h news, BBC, CNN, etc and of course here on Twitter
But I have some thoughts, early analysis
First Ukraine War Thread/2
Be aware, information, misinformation & disinformation. In ANY war, there is misinformation. The so-called 'fog of war'. It is true, that the truth is always the first casualty of any war. It is DIFFICULT for us to know, accurately what is going on
First Ukraine War Thread/3
Understand BIAS in reporting on the war
Ukraine was attacked. Its defenders will try to project any good news - amplify it, and at times will try to suppress bad news. This is normal for any country in any war, incl USA in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan..
How's your war? I see lots of pretty explosions on TV. I'm miserable. Bill Barr says my genius plan to overturn the election was run by clowns. Roger Stone calls me the greatest mistake in history & I pardoned that moron! I miss your voice. If you'd just call
My Dearest Trumpy-Pumpkin
Daddy is busy now, invading Ukraine. My convoy with 4 divisions has gotten stuck on a road 25 miles from Kyiv. Bill Barr is correct, but you knew that. Giuliani is a clown, remember Four Seasons Total Landscaping? Ignore Roger Stone. Just eat some Goya
Dearest Chairman Kim Jong-Un
My people are deserting me. Roger Stone says I was the greatest mistake in history. Bill Barr called my lawyers clowns. And you know Giuliani, obviously they're clowns, but Bill shouldn't be saying that!