Thread by @tomiahonen

My first analysis of Ukraine war so far/1

Let's do a Thread. I am not a war correspondent. I am not there in Ukraine. My sources are as incomplete as your sources, so relying on 24h news, BBC, CNN, etc and of course here on Twitter

But I have some thoughts, early analysis

First Ukraine War Thread/2

Be aware, information, misinformation & disinformation. In ANY war, there is misinformation. The so-called 'fog of war'. It is true, that the truth is always the first casualty of any war. It is DIFFICULT for us to know, accurately what is going on

First Ukraine War Thread/3

Understand BIAS in reporting on the war

Ukraine was attacked. Its defenders will try to project any good news - amplify it, and at times will try to suppress bad news. This is normal for any country in any war, incl USA in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan..

First Ukraine War Thread/4

But Vladimir Putin is a former KGB officer, expert in propaganda, and using DISinformation as a weapon. NOTHING said by Putin or Russian government will be 'honest' or near the truth. EVERYTHING from Putin is deliberate distortion or outright lies

First Ukraine War Thread/5

There is plenty of Western newsmedia in Ukraine, reporting live, and their coverage can be considered reasonably accurate BUT LIMITED. Ukraine is a large country, and the Invasion comes from three sides along borders 1,300 miles (2,200 km) long.

First Ukraine War Thread/6

The media will not be located in the spots where the fierce combat takes place, because early on, there are not enough war correspondents in place. So their stories at least initially will be 'random'. If war drags on for months, then media gets better

First Ukraine War Thread/7

The quality of military analyst views on TV has been patchy. Some are good, some are unqualified, and some are BIASED. The early misguided Republican support of Putin colored some military analyst views to give far too rosy prospects for Russia

First Ukraine War Thread/8

All of the above simply tells you, your humble T Dawg doesn't know what is going one, this analysis that follows is a lot of guesstimation, and reading between the lines. But I will tell you what I think, honestly, to the best of my ability

First Ukraine War Thread/9

Many start with Putin mismanagement. That is the WRONG starting point

The MOST relevant take-away is that Ukraine's political & military leadership was PREPARED, and acted smartly & well to the initial attacks in the first week. Ukrainians fight hard

First Ukraine War Thread/10

An attack into another country involving over 100,000 troops takes weeks to assemble. This was true of Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan, but then under Jimmy Carter, the US intelligence agencies MISSED the clues, along Afghanistan border.

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The US intelligence agencies learned from that failure in 1979. This time with Ukraine, President Biden was sharing intel including spy satellite imagery for weeks in advance, so we - and Ukraine - knew what was coming - and from where

First Ukraine War Thread/12

From how poorly Russian military has been able to advance into Ukraine, especially to Kyiv, we know this is not due to incompetent drivers on Russian convoys with several divisions of Russian troops

It's been Ukraine's planned & organized resistance

First Ukraine War Thread/13

There have been reports of thousands of military casualties (more dead Russian soldiers than Ukrainians). We do not KNOW (yet). But we DO know, a convoy the size of 4 divisions (40,000 soldiers) is stuck on a road 20 miles from Kyiv. For a week

First Ukraine War Thread/14

The Russian plan seems to have been, to lay siege to Kyiv, like Putin did to Grozny the capital of Chechnya, when Putin surrounded the city, laid a minefield around it, and slaughtered civilians in the city, by artillery, rocket & air bombardment

First Ukraine War Thread/15

That this convoy has not reached Kyiv, and Kyiv is not sieged (yet) is a MAJOR military advantage currently for Ukraine. But the mystery of the convoy is screaming for answers. Why? What is going on?

First Ukraine War Thread/16

We know a major bridge was destroyed by Ukraine to stop advance. There is reporting of fighting. There are reports of surrenders (by Russians). There was reporting of Russian drivers sabotaging their own vehicles. We do not KNOW if & how much happened

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Regardless, Putin had EXPECTED his army takes Kyiv in a few days. That did not happen. Ukraine has had time to evacuate children, women from Kyiv, and build defenses, if combat arrives to their Capital city - a beautiful city if I can add

First Ukraine War Thread/18

In the SOUTH-EAST (Donbas), Russians are consolidating the areas that were held by pro-Putin rebels. When you see 'red' on maps in the South-Eastern parts, so next to Crimean Peninsula, that's not 'military success' by Putin. It is substituting troops

First Ukraine War Thread/19

Russia HAS made advances in the South. They took the city of Kherson, and now are sieging Mariupol. So Russia is advancing, but Ukraine is fighting back, and typical of a war like this, is that some cities will 'exchange hands' possibly several times

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In the air, Russian air force outnumbers Ukraine's air force by more than 10 to 1. There are plenty of credible reports of Russian warplanes shot down but we do not have good numbers yet. Air war is incredibly expensive, Ukraine needs jets & missiles

First Ukraine War Thread/21

One of best items of news was Putin's admission that his war is producing deaths to Russian soldiers (when he promised them military pensions in televised speech). My read is, that Putin is disappointed in how poorly his war is going

First Ukraine War Thread/22

There have been reports of Pro-Putin Chechen warlord mercenaries having bounties (would be consistent with Putin bounties against Americans in Afghanistan). And one perhaps even 3 attempts to assassinate Ukrainian President Zelensky. Sounds like Putin

First Ukraine War Thread/23

This gambit of a 'ceasefire' for siege of Mariupol is classic Putin ruse. He had no intention of honoring it. And you can be sure, the Russian troops are hungry and low on medical supplies, they will raid any convoys of humanitarian aid to Mariupol

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My gut feeling: Putin had devised a 'quick' war plan. That plan was destroyed by Ukrainian determined defense. That shifts this war to a more grinding war of attrition. This war is likely to be long and bloody. But Ukraine will prevail

Slava Ukraini