Thread by @marknevitt

Should #NATO consider placing a #NoFlyZone over #Ukraine️ ? I flew in support of a NoFlyZone in Iraq prior to the Second Gulf War and have some thoughts from a #Legal/JAG + operational perspective that I unpack for @just_security here. 🧵

justsecurity.org/80641/the-oper…

2/ A #NoFlyZoneOverUkraine zone does not equate to a "no-combat zone." Quite the opposite. It does not magically occur by mere declaration. It requires a massive military presence and military enforcement, a point made 10 years ago by @Schmitt_ILaw and others.

3/I sympathize with the no-fly zone’s animating idea—to protect human lives—but a #NATO no-fly zone simply presents an unacceptable, escalatory risk to the United States and its allies. Why?

4/To enforce a no-fly zone, military air superiority is a prerequisite to protect #NATO pilots. Fmr. SECDEF Robert Gates made this point to Congress in 2011:

"A no-fly zone begins with an attack to destroy the air defenses . . . and then you can fly planes around the country."

5/Some officials have called on #NATO and the United States to implement a “limited” or “humanitarian no-fly zone” to protect fleeing Ukrainians. Don’t be fooled.

6/While I understand and share the noble, human desire to alleviate human suffering, there is not a meaningful difference between a “no-fly zone” and a #HumanitarianCorridor no-fly zone” in terms of their escalatory risk and implementation.

7/What has been our experience with recent #NoFlyZone ? In the last four instances (Iraq x 2, Bosnia,Libya) U.S. enjoyed air superiority + was *still* fired upon and returned fire. And each one had some level of #UnitedNations buy-in.

9/In the #RussiaUkraineWar Russia appears to have air superiority. To establish an effective #NoFlyZone , NATO must either achieve air superiority upfront by attacking Russian assets or place allied aircraft into an area to enforce a no-fly zone at great risk. A terrible choice.

END/

Unless conditions in Ukraine fundamentally change, U.S. and allied policymakers should remove any discussion of #UkraineWar no-fly zone from the table as a credible policy option.

@RadioFreeTom @bridgewriter @rgoodlaw @violagienger