UPDATE: Russia 🇷🇺 conducted a number of air strikes early this morning in western Ukraine 🇺🇦 near the cities of Lutsk, Dnipro, and Ivano-Frankivsk.
These areas have been largely left untouched by the war up to this point.
(2) Based on the videos I’ve seen, and the ensuing explosions, I’d speculate that at least some of the targets were munitions depots.

Reportedly, the airports near Ivano-Frankivsk and Lutsk were also targeted.

So far, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service has reported only one
(3) death as result of the strikes.

Based on what I’ve seen in the past two weeks, Russia appears to have incredibly poor real-time ISTAR capabilities. This is why we see heavy indiscriminate attacks on well defended cities like Kharkiv and Mariupol.
More precision strikes
(4) have occurred on fixed targets, like airfields, etc., or lesser contested areas where HUMINT can play a more significant role.

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More from @LtTimMcMillan

Mar 13
UPDATE 🧵(1/5): Russia conducted a number of early morning air strikes in western #Ukraine, hitting the #Yavoriv training Center near the border with Poland.
Yavoriv is where US troops, namely from the Florida Army National Guard were training with Ukrainian forces just… ImageImage
(2/5) before the war. So far, there are no reports of fatalities or injuries as result of the strikes.

Because Yavoriv is such a prominent fixed military target, it is unlikely that Ukraine had many, if any, meaningful military equipment at the training center. Ultimately, Image
(3/5) further suggesting Russia has exceptionally poor real-time ISTAR capabilities.

Defense officials tell me that the Ukrainian intelligence services have increased monitoring of civil communications, as it is likely that Russia’s primary ISTAR right now is coming from Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 12
I’ve been covering Russia and Putin for years. One of the things that often surprises casual observers the most is to find out, Putin is actually a really little fella.
He’s like 5’6-5’7 and 150lbs.
They stage photos - like putting him on a small horse- to make him look Image
(2) like he’s actually bigger than he is. Or he doesn’t stand close to other foreign leaders. Like this photo op with his bestie the Butcher of Syria Bashar al-Assad. Image
(3) I however don’t think it is fair to say that Putin has Napoleon syndrome.
At least Napoleon actually led his armies into battle. Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 11
UPDATE: FFS! The Russian ambassdor to the UN just held up images he said was “evidence” that victims of Russia’s missile strike on the Mariupol maternity hospital were crisis actors. Image
Waiting on Russia to call up their star witness any moment.
Meanwhile China still:
Read 4 tweets
Mar 6
VIDEO: All across Russia, thousands came out to protest the invasion of #Ukraine. This was after the Kremlin passed new draconian laws against anti-war sentiment.
Now, here's the problem. Chances are high Putin is going to need to mobilize Russia if he wants to continue the
(2) the war against Ukraine. The quagmire here is Putin has told the Russian populace he's only conducting a "limited special military operation." How do you go from that to full-mobilization?
In my opinion, the chances are better than 50/50 we see a false flag attack on Russian
(3) soil to justify mobilization and try and establish a "total war" mindset amongst the Russian people.

I think a lot of people in the West are making the same mistake the Allies did with Hitler in WW2. They are viewing Putin like he's a rational thinker. Absolutely no one
Read 4 tweets
Mar 6
BREAKING: A second attempt at a ceasefire to establish a humanitarian corridor and allow for the evacuation of civilians in Mariupol will be attempted again from 10am to 9pm today.
A ceasefire and civilian evacuation was supposed to take place yesterday from 9am to 4pm,
(2) However, Russian forces continued to shell Mariupol, forcing Ukrainian officials to call off the planned evacuations.
Mariupol has been surrounded by Russian troops for days, and reports indicate the city is without power, water, heat, and food supplies are running low.
(3) Mariupol has also faced intense, indiscriminate shelling for nearly a week, causing catastrophic damage to residential areas and likely significant numbers of civilian casualties.
So far, Russia has remained content to use stand-off bombardments to slowly choke Mariupol into
Read 6 tweets
Mar 5
BREAKING: Mykolaiv Oblast Governor Vitaly Kim, reports all Russian forces have been eliminated in Mykolaiv, roughly 40 miles north of Kherson. #UkraineUnderAttaсk #Mykolaiv #UkraineRussiaWar
(2) Waiting on visual confirmation, but this would be a pretty big blow to Russia’s southern Crimea axis, their only reasonably successful line of advance so far.
(3) Yesterday, I predicted the southern axis would start to collapse if Russia continued to try and move on 3 divergent axes, instead of a mutually supportive single objective. Evidently, Russia didn’t read my article.

thedebrief.org/the-worst-is-y…
Read 4 tweets

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