No large unmanned aircraft options to supply cities under siege exists under these circumstances. No medium sized workable solutions exist. Nothing with a large capacity for sorties at all. Stand-off distance is an issue. I report on leading edge of unmanned systems for a living.
That being said, the US has both a manned overt and covert capability to do this. Covert is more limited in capacity and higher risk. Overt you are back into the NFZ non starter territory.
I am not familiar with this author, he could be brilliant and a great guy, but on this, it’s not reality and a lot of people clearly take it as otherwise. It’s no ill will towards him at all, but people of notoriety are just throwing crap out there, it’s exasperating.
Also, remember this is not about manned or unmanned at this time. No NATO aircraft of any kind are operating over Ukraine for a reason. Even if you had the assets to do this you would be risking them and them being unmanned, Russia would go after them full on….
A C-130, manned or not, careening on fire is a massive fuel air bomb/exploding projectile that can kill many on the ground. Huge targets for Russian air defenses even those in Russia. Anyways, you get the idea, I’ll stop here.
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Russia does not possess the weapons or networking capability to hit moving targets like weapons convoys with standoff cruise or ballistic missiles. This means in order for them to interdict or destroy these shipments they will not only need actionable intelligence, but...🧵
They will need to be willing to risk manned aircraft in highly contested airspace and/or special operations forces deployed deep in territory that is not even near areas under Russia's control. This greatly complicates achieving the objective of stopping even some...
of these shipments. Otherwise, they will be limited to standoff attacks like the one today that take hours to prepare (likely days for them) and sacrifice standoff weapons that are increasingly in short supply, some of which won't even hit their targets...
MiG-29s are focus, which has been unfortunate, because what Ukraine really needs is more air defense systems they already operate, including highly mobile ones that can reposition quickly and keep Russian airpower forced into the MANPADS envelope. Big feature on this coming soon!
The impact a couple dozen Fulcrums will have eventually when they actually get there is debatable. And they will be a prime highly centralized target on the ground. Then there is the risk issue sure. But medium+ alt SAMs provide a far more enduring and persistent threat.
And enable the massive MANPADS arsenal now in country.
👀 vids on Star Wars Starcruiser. Corny/$$$/fully interactive 2-night stay. Been compared to Westworld, but after watching for a bit, it hits me: Whole deal was the robots were trapped in tortuous loops to entertain tourists in Westworld, but on this thing, they are real actors!
I can't imagine how much energy it would take to do this with hundreds of people that have paid big bucks day in and day out. It's sort of mind blowing and freaky. People say they are totally exhausted getting off this thing, imagine being the main characters?!?
And literally, these are total loops with finite storylines and many mini storylines within that reset every two days when a new crop shows up for the experience. Just like Westworld.
What's a positive endgame for Russia now? I don't see 1 maybe aside from proclaiming securing the newly recognized states, expanding grip on Donbas, & obtaining a Crimea landbridge a victory & calling it a day by exiting the conflict via negotiation. Otherwise Russia gets what?🧵
A puppet government nobody listens to under constant attack via a horrific insurgency funded by the richest countries on the planet with a huge stake in seeing Russia ground down to a bloody stump? Oh and this only came via:
-Killing massive civilians and throngs of your own troops in a horrific urban conflict
-Turning all goodwill towards your country that existed globally into straight-up hatred
-Absolutely destroying your economy near term and the prospects for any growth long term
For an urban fight, Ukraine needs unguided rockets, like AT4, M72, or Carl Gustaf recoilless rifles. Javelin not as useful in tight, running, urban battle. You can also buy big numbers of these for the price of a single Javelin missile. AT4 & M72 Run around $1400-2500...
A single Javelin in recent budget runs $216K-265K for missile alone, not the CLU targeting unit. Lowest I have ever heard it is $75k, likely a misrepresentation but still. So you can deliver scores of these other weapons for the cost of a single Javelin...
But not even about the $ it's about what is most useful for different combat environments. Javelin still absolutely critical as most the fighting won't be in highly urban areas. Javelin is incredibly effective.
If there was ever an advertisement for nuclear proliferation, this would be it.
The world has failed miserably in making denuclearization/non-proliferation the smart move in the new millennium.
A lot of arms control folks are brilliant, but some of them seem to be totally lost in idealism over reality.
Relying on someone else's 'maybe' nuclear umbrella seems less of a good bet than it was a couple decades ago too. Pieces on the board have moved significantly. Asia in particular.