The most frequent comments in the past week have been about Russia slow progresses, bad coordination/com/logistic, etc.
All true but we are now in a new phase, where Putin reassessed, is hitting to weaken Ukraine core too, hiding its Kyiv convoy, closing on Mariupol & others.
All true but we are now in a new phase, where Putin reassessed, is hitting to weaken Ukraine core too, hiding its Kyiv convoy, closing on Mariupol & others.
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1502540275238985729
This may be the beginning of the West defeat. Ukrainians stood up valiantly for 2 weeks, while Russia was trying to limit the damages.
Now that santions are on and only hurtful in long term, Putin hit civilians& infrastructure while West finance daily his war buying Oil & Gas.
Now that santions are on and only hurtful in long term, Putin hit civilians& infrastructure while West finance daily his war buying Oil & Gas.
EU, once again, is far behind. After the 3 golden days 25-27/02 when strong/quick decisions were taken in a united front, today we hear only threats, *if* the war continues.
History will recall the probable 10 000 deads in Mariupol or maternity bombed in Kharkiv were not enough.
History will recall the probable 10 000 deads in Mariupol or maternity bombed in Kharkiv were not enough.
Once Mariupol falls, one way or another, the East front will quickly deteriorates. Especially if now Russia is fully taking the sky.
Then all become simpler for Russia, soon Dniepr would replace Kharkiv as the extreme front city. Putin will have East & South.
Then all become simpler for Russia, soon Dniepr would replace Kharkiv as the extreme front city. Putin will have East & South.
I can't blame Biden for not wanting US involvement in Ukraine.
Not when Europeans are to afraid to go first.
In this scenario, Europeans will only have to blame themselves for deaths, refugees, terrible economic crisis.
For what result?
To me Putin will use his usual method :
Not when Europeans are to afraid to go first.
In this scenario, Europeans will only have to blame themselves for deaths, refugees, terrible economic crisis.
For what result?
To me Putin will use his usual method :
Instead of occupying the whole Ukraine, he will keep whatever he has, tranform it into a grey area, harass any vocal opposition, send Zelensky in jail or kill him "accidentally".
"But what about the sanctions/RU ?"
The West lives in fantasy land where "The whole world condemned
"But what about the sanctions/RU ?"
The West lives in fantasy land where "The whole world condemned
Putin/Russia war" which is only half true. 1) noboby cares about UN, dead since long.
2) Instead of a list, look at a map of the vote :
That large yellow/red area covers more than half of the world. They need to feed their population. To maintain their raw material supply
2) Instead of a list, look at a map of the vote :
That large yellow/red area covers more than half of the world. They need to feed their population. To maintain their raw material supply
to sustain their economy.
Who can think they will stick to the West front ? When the US did not close a deal with Iran nor Venezuala yet ?
Do we think overpopulated Egypt will not take the first chance to make a deal with Putin, to feed 100 million people ?
Why would they suffer
Who can think they will stick to the West front ? When the US did not close a deal with Iran nor Venezuala yet ?
Do we think overpopulated Egypt will not take the first chance to make a deal with Putin, to feed 100 million people ?
Why would they suffer
for Ukraine when EU is incapable of sending troops to defend it ? If France, by ex, can't send its Rafales to at least balance forces ? Pressure Putin in sparing Mariupol ?
"EU is avoiding WWIII"
By sacrificing people at the front in Ukraine ? By lauching a deep economic
"EU is avoiding WWIII"
By sacrificing people at the front in Ukraine ? By lauching a deep economic
World eco war on ressources ?
You think Pakistan, 226M, has no problem to compete on LNG with Germany, aka "I discovered my energy issue 2 weeks ago" ?
In the pessimistic scenario, Putin will reach a point where he controls enough of Ukraine and say "I want peace now". Many will
You think Pakistan, 226M, has no problem to compete on LNG with Germany, aka "I discovered my energy issue 2 weeks ago" ?
In the pessimistic scenario, Putin will reach a point where he controls enough of Ukraine and say "I want peace now". Many will
applaud. More will ask "Can we talk about ressources deal now ?" and this is how he wins. Long enough to weaken, maybe decisively, the Ukrainian/EU dream.
Eco or Military, West must act tough fast.
You don't bring a knife to a gunfight.
Eco or Military, West must act tough fast.
You don't bring a knife to a gunfight.
P.S : My fear is that too many *brilliant* specialists / analysts we can read, worked too long in their own, intellectual, field and underestimate how Putin may be sticking to simple ressources calculations.
A thesis by @pascalperri ab Ukraine's richness:
lesechos.fr/idees-debats/c…
A thesis by @pascalperri ab Ukraine's richness:
lesechos.fr/idees-debats/c…
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