Blueprint is one of my oldest holdings. They have an outstanding CEO with Jeff Albers. Recently, they announced the CEO transition to Kate Haviland. Jeff will move to the Chairman role.
2/ Any time there is a CEO transition, there is reason for concern. I have been in companies before that were very successful under one CEO and then it was all down hill after the CEO changed.
3/ All I can say is Kate would have been my first pick for CEO. I have heard her present over the years at conferences, and I think she will do a great job.
4/ Science:
Blueprint has been focused over the years on intracellular signaling pathways. This has been one of my top themes for many years. They target the many pathways that mutate in cancer. This has been a very powerful space in targeted oncology.
5/ They have been focused on PDGFR and KIT with their first drug Ayvakit. This is approved for a rare mutation of D842V GIST. Its is also approved in advance SM with a D816V mutation. These are super small indications an sales are already maturing in these 2 indications.
6/ The next big indication will be indolent SM which is about 20x bigger than advanced SM market. That is currently in phase 2 trials with a data read out around mid year. They have several early development programs going on around EFGR, CDK2 and the follow on drug for KIT.
7/ Potential:
Their commercial programs are getting to the level of maturity around $200 million in revenues. The next big driver of potential will be indolent SM which could do up to $1.5 billion in sales and expand further with BLU-263 into all Mast Cell disorders.
8/ They have 3 early EFGR drugs in development with BLU-701 and BLU-945 which target Exon 21 mutations. They also have BLU-451 which targets Exon 20 mutations.
9/ These drugs could address a very large market as Osimertinib does over $5 billion annually in sales. Their last drug in development is for CDK2 mutant cancers.
10/ I am not sure yet what kind of market this would be. I think Blueprint is very small right now, but has multiple programs that could take them to $3 billion or more in long term sales.
11/ Value:
Blueprint seems to be a complete steal on valuation at $3.38 billion market cap. They have just over $1 billion in cash. They did $180 million in sales in 2021 and burned about $400 million when you back out the cost of buying Lengo.
12/ That gives them a good 2 years worth of cash. I expect that costs will continue to go up as they develop all these new programs. The big risk here lies in the success of their early programs and the new management.
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I have been in C4 Therapeutic for about 8 months now. I don't know the CEO Andrew Hirsch all that well. He seems to be doing good so far. The biggest issue I have is with the high level of risk in their strategy.
2/ They are highly focused on using Protein Degraders in already very proven indications and targets. This means they will have to show strong superiority over current therapies on efficacy or safety to really stand of chance of capturing any market share.
I have been in Arvinas about 9 months, and I am still undecided about John Houston. I don't like the idea they started in ER and AR which are highly competitive spaces.
2/ Their best programs have been sitting in the preclinic for years going nowhere. They fall further and further behind in those best indications like tau or KRAS. I am still hopeful they will impress me someday.
I have been in Kymera for about 9 months now. I think Nello Mainolfi has done a good job so far. Its still early stages so don't know how well he will navigate the regulatory and commercial aspects of the business.
2/ Science:
Kymera is working on Targeted Protein Degradation. This uses the Proteasome of the cell to target and breakdown unwanted proteins. This can be harnessed to target proteins that can be therapeutic to inhibit.
I don't know Mark Goldsmith very well. I have only been in Revolution Medicine about a year. That isn't a lot time to really know a management team. So far, I think he has done and excellent job.
2/ All their programs are still very early so it is hard to see how well they will navigate the regulatory and commercial parts of the business at this stage.
Mirati is one of my older holdings along with Blueprint. They were lead by founder and scientist Charles Baum. I think he did a really good job developing the company up to this point.
2/ He created Sitravatinib and in-licensed Adagrasib for KRAS G12C. Recently, they changed management by moving Baum to Chief of Research. They brought in David Meek as the new CEO to take them into the commercial phase of development.
I have been a bit cautious on the management of Schrodinger. I think Ramy Farid is a software guy and doing a good job with the software business. I don't own the company because of the software as I don't believe it will be that big of a business.
2/ I do see what the software could do for the company with its own drug discovery business. I think Karen Akinsanya is doing an excellent job on the biotech side of things.