Mirati is one of my older holdings along with Blueprint. They were lead by founder and scientist Charles Baum. I think he did a really good job developing the company up to this point.
2/ He created Sitravatinib and in-licensed Adagrasib for KRAS G12C. Recently, they changed management by moving Baum to Chief of Research. They brought in David Meek as the new CEO to take them into the commercial phase of development.
3/ As always, I am very cautious whenever there is a management change.
4/ Science:
Mirati is focused on the intracellular pathways that drive cancer growth. Their first drug is Sitravatinib affects the Tyro, Axl, and Mer (TAM) family of kinases. They play a role in immune cells and are in development in combination with PD-1 inhibitors.
5/ Their second program is Adagrasib which is their KRAS G12C inhibitor. KRAS is a key GTPase in the MAPK pathway that drives cell growth and proliferation. They also have an early KRAS G12D and PRMT5 inhibitors in development.
6/ Potential:
Adagrasib will be their first drug to reach commercial if it gets approved by its December PDUFA date. It could be worth $1.5 billion up to $2 billion depending on the market share they can capture vs Amgen.
7/ This space is about 10,000 to 13,000 patients in Lung cancer and more including Pancreatic and CRC. Sitravatinib could be worth about $500 million in combination with PD-1 inhibitors as it only helps about 20% to 25% of the patients.
8/ The early KRAS G12D indication could double their potential for the overall KRAS space to upward of $3 billion.
9/ Value:
Mirati is really looking cheap at $4.48 billion market cap. They have $1.5 billion in cash. They burned about $600 million cash in 2021 which gives them at least 2 years of cash.
10/ A lot depends on them getting approval at the end of this year. They could quickly drive sales and reduce their cash burn. Any delays will cause them do another large financing.
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I have been in C4 Therapeutic for about 8 months now. I don't know the CEO Andrew Hirsch all that well. He seems to be doing good so far. The biggest issue I have is with the high level of risk in their strategy.
2/ They are highly focused on using Protein Degraders in already very proven indications and targets. This means they will have to show strong superiority over current therapies on efficacy or safety to really stand of chance of capturing any market share.
I have been in Arvinas about 9 months, and I am still undecided about John Houston. I don't like the idea they started in ER and AR which are highly competitive spaces.
2/ Their best programs have been sitting in the preclinic for years going nowhere. They fall further and further behind in those best indications like tau or KRAS. I am still hopeful they will impress me someday.
I have been in Kymera for about 9 months now. I think Nello Mainolfi has done a good job so far. Its still early stages so don't know how well he will navigate the regulatory and commercial aspects of the business.
2/ Science:
Kymera is working on Targeted Protein Degradation. This uses the Proteasome of the cell to target and breakdown unwanted proteins. This can be harnessed to target proteins that can be therapeutic to inhibit.
I don't know Mark Goldsmith very well. I have only been in Revolution Medicine about a year. That isn't a lot time to really know a management team. So far, I think he has done and excellent job.
2/ All their programs are still very early so it is hard to see how well they will navigate the regulatory and commercial parts of the business at this stage.
Blueprint is one of my oldest holdings. They have an outstanding CEO with Jeff Albers. Recently, they announced the CEO transition to Kate Haviland. Jeff will move to the Chairman role.
2/ Any time there is a CEO transition, there is reason for concern. I have been in companies before that were very successful under one CEO and then it was all down hill after the CEO changed.
I have been a bit cautious on the management of Schrodinger. I think Ramy Farid is a software guy and doing a good job with the software business. I don't own the company because of the software as I don't believe it will be that big of a business.
2/ I do see what the software could do for the company with its own drug discovery business. I think Karen Akinsanya is doing an excellent job on the biotech side of things.