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Michael E. Webber Profile picture
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Mar 12 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
I'm making a list of energy options for the power sector whose availabilities vary w/ the weather and those that don't:

Weather-dependent:
Natural Gas
Coal & Biomass
Nuclear
Wind
Solar
Hydro

Not Weather-dependent:
Geothermal
Tidal
Fuel Oil & Diesel

What did I miss?
Geothermal is the only option for the power sector I can think of that is:

Available 24/7
Doesn't depend on the weather
Is low-carbon

It also leverages a lot of know-how from the O&G sector.

Seems like a global opportunity waiting to happen.
Oops. One more 24/7 option that is low-carbon...

Efficiency!

Should've started with that one.
Natural gas can fail if it gets too cold.

Coal & Biomass can fail if the piles of fuel freeze or get soaked or if there is a drought that limits the cooling water.

Nuclear can fail b/c of flood, freezes, heat waves or drought.
Wind availability changes with diurnal and seasonal air flow patterns.

Solar availability changes with level of cloud cover and astronomical conditions like position of the earth relative to the sun.

Hydro changes with rainfall, snowmelt and evaporation.
Tidal: Gravity doesn't change w/the weather.

Geothermal: The heat of the earth doesn't change w/the weather (works in hot Hawaii and cold Iceland).

Fuel oil and Diesel: Often used as back-up for gas and coal (esp. w/air-cooled turbines or gensets).

A reliable grid needs a mix.
So, if we care about...

1) renewability
2) reliability despite weather
3) low emissions
4) affordability (e.g. immunity from oil/gas price spikes)
5) security (e.g. immunity from fuel supply cutoffs)
6) 24/7 dispatchability

...then geothermal is at the top of the list.🌎🔥

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More from @MichaelEWebber

Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Aug 23, 2021
@bradplumer Okay, here goes. We will solve this because:

1) customers demand it
2) employees demand it
3) investors demand it
4) many (but not all) policymakers at municipal, state/regional, and national levels are pushing for it. And those recalcitrant ones in opposition are losing hold.
@bradplumer The world has faced difficult global challenges before: WWII, the Cold War, the Ozone Hole. And we solved those challenges EVEN though there were significant stakeholders in opposition to change. Eventually those holdouts lost. The world came together and solved it.
@bradplumer People forget how hard the Cold War was. It seemed like a great unsolvable problem--it took multinational coalitions and 3-5 decades. But we did it. Climate Change is a multinational multidecade problem and we can solve this one, too.
Read 22 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Aug 20, 2021
I am waiting to board a plane to Iceland, and frankly I’m a little disappointed that no one‘s dressed as a Viking in the waiting area. Image
Update: we landed in Iceland before breakfast and the first thing we did after we got off the plane was take a hike up a mountain to check out this volcano that’s newly active after 800 years. Incredible.
Also, check out the tires on this cool Mercedes in Iceland: I would love to see it drive on @EvilMopacATX Image
Read 10 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Jul 14, 2021
It is very costly for the TX power producers (wind, solar, nuclear, coal, and gas) to underperform.

But for TX gas suppliers it is very lucrative to underperform. TX gas production down dropped 50% (80% in the Permian!) yet profits skyrocketed.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
This is the heart of the problem: Wind, solar, nukes, coal & gas power providers have a strong $$$ incentive to winterize & improve reliability b/c their lack of production was costly.

Gas suppliers made a handy profit from the flimsiness of their system. So why winterize?
BTW, I need to be clear here to differentiate local gas distribution companies (your gas utility) who delivered gas consistently to our homes (saving lives) and the gas industry that extracts and moves gas from wells/storage to the customers (including those gas utilities).
Read 8 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
May 3, 2021
Texas vs California 2009 & 2019 @TheEconomist

TX today is like 1980s CA in terms of population (~30M) & politics (Republican).

Other than stints in Paris & Lausanne, Switzerland I have lived in TX or CA my entire life so this tension between their two examples fascinates me.
NOTE: California is symbolized with a surfboard in both instances. Texas with a cowboy hat. And, Texas has a petroleum-fueled jetski for transportation while CA's mode is propelled by renewable wave energy.
I've lived in TX for 3+ decades and in CA for 1+ decade. Both are amazing states.

A key difference: Texans are obsessed w/ CA, but Californians don't think about TX at all.

TX politicians rant about CA all the time for example w/slogans like "Don't California My Texas"
Read 16 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Apr 30, 2021
Looks like someone made enough money from high gas prices over a few days during the Texas energy crisis to reduce debt and increase dividends.
BTW, buried in this story is that Chevron raised its dividend and Continental Resources reinstated its dividend. It's heartwarming to know that Texans freezing to death is good for business.
I'm reading through the filings for Continental Resources. They swung from a Q1 2020 loss of $200M to a Q1 2021 profit of $400M DESPITE producing 15% less energy. Keep in mind that Q1 2020 was barely touched by COVID. This shows how profitable the Texas Energy Crisis was.
Read 10 tweets
Michael E. Webber Profile picture
Apr 23, 2021
The Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA) paid ENVERUS to prepare a report.

The report says gas = good & wind/electricity = bad

Are you surprised that a consulting company gave its customer a report that makes them look good?

The report is highly flawed. Let’s dig in. [THREAD]
Main problem: It says that gas supply disruptions were because of power outages rather than the other way around.

But that doesn’t make sense from an engineering perspective: gas supplies started to fail Feb 10-12 & load shedding in ERCOT didn’t begin until 1:20 a.m. Feb 15.
The report makes a fundamental mistake, confusing OUTAGES for LOAD SHED. There are always outages, but rarely load shed.

This mistake undermines the entire logic of the report's conclusions. This sequence (gas failed first, power failed second) is critical, yet they missed it.
Read 13 tweets

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