Thread by @MichaelEWebber

@bradplumer Okay, here goes. We will solve this because:

1) customers demand it
2) employees demand it
3) investors demand it
4) many (but not all) policymakers at municipal, state/regional, and national levels are pushing for it. And those recalcitrant ones in opposition are losing hold.

@bradplumer The world has faced difficult global challenges before: WWII, the Cold War, the Ozone Hole. And we solved those challenges EVEN though there were significant stakeholders in opposition to change. Eventually those holdouts lost. The world came together and solved it.

@bradplumer People forget how hard the Cold War was. It seemed like a great unsolvable problem--it took multinational coalitions and 3-5 decades. But we did it. Climate Change is a multinational multidecade problem and we can solve this one, too.

@bradplumer But there are two key forces at stake:

1) younger people are on board with solving this and they are taking leadership positions everywhere (by "younger" I mean people 50 and younger).

2) The fossil fuel companies themselves are now pushing for change, usually quietly.

@bradplumer I work w/students from around the world. They're motivated. They are in despair by the mess we're leaving them and are determined to fix it. Because of that, they will fix it. Believe me when I tell you they work hard, they're smart, they're focused. I have so much faith in them.

@bradplumer But the thing I can see that most people can't see is what the corporate world is doing. I worked at one of the largest energy companies in the world and @ENGIEgroup has pledged to get to net-zero by 2045 for scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. I bet they hit the target early.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup Other companies under pressure from regulators, investors, employees and customers will follow suit. It's an avalanche that has already started and can't stop or turn back. Now it will be a race to see who can decarbonize the fastest. But there's more...

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup I now get phonecalls or emails atleast once per week from HUGE entities -- corporations you recognize, multi-billion dollar companies, some of the most important hydrocarbon families in American history: they call and ask about how to catch up with the energy transition.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup As one said it "the train left the station." These 3rd and 4th generation fossil fuel families don't want to be the ones that waste the family fortune clinging to a legacy. They want to be part of the future. They understand that the future is low-carbon.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup They feel tardy & in a hurry. Now they are anxious to catch up. SO MUCH MONEY is already flowing quietly and even more is about to flow loudly for renewables, storage, carbon capture utilization and sequestration, hydrogen, new infrastructure. The amount of money is phehomenal.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup To my eye these trends are irreversible. It's hard to get money for a coal mine. It's hard to get money for new large-scale hydrocarbon production. It's all changing. The O&G companies know it and are looking to pivot to geothermal, CCUS, offshore wind/solar.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup Some O&G companies like Orsted already made the change. Others are jealous.

There are some domestic independents who are holding out. They will struggle.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup A huge E&P company called me -- in their words they see 5-6 years of activity left for them -- not 20-30 years. They feel that speed is critical. Their view: they want to make O&G better, make money making O&G better, then use that money to get out of O&G.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup I'm in a unique position because I see what the students can do. I see what early- to mid-career engineers and business leaders want. I know the pressure a global company feels to reduce its emissions. It's real. And, y'all, it's a done deal: we're gonna solve this.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup BTW, this means we get to net-zero then we go net-negative to clean up 200 years of emissions. We're going to reclaim the atmosphere just like we've done with other environmental problems. The air quality in LA is better today than 40 years ago. We reclaimed it.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup Water quality in Cleveland is better today than 60 years ago. We reclaimed it. The ozone hole is smaller than 30 years ago. We reclaimed the atmosphere. We will reclaim it for its GHG composition, too.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup What's this mean for fossil fuel companies?

Coal will be reduced to critical needs: mettallurgical and material purposes.

O&G can have a great future if it wants, e.g. with subsurface engineering, carbon management, offshore, midstream, and fuels (such as H2 and carriers).

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup Electricity companies, renewables, materials companies, data and mining will thrive. THERE IS SO MUCH MONEY to be made from this multi-trillion dollar opportunity to remake the global economy and clean up our act.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup Ultimately, companies want to make money. And O&G has proved it isn't a money-maker or value-creator. As the worst performer over the last decade-plus in the S&P, money will chase better projects. The labor and capital markets have spoken.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup And when the labor and capital markets agree, it's game over.

The pathway is clear and baked in.

The only question is which countries and companies will lead.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup The USA can still lead. Texas could still lead. But its leaders might instead fight to protect our legacy rather than prepare for our future.

But those who move the fastest and smartest will make a lot of money. The deniers and laggards will lose. I hope that isn't us.

@bradplumer @ENGIEgroup But even if Texas and the USA stupidly pass up this opportunity, the world will still solve it. That much is clear.

Believe me, #energytwitter, I see it -- we've got this. And the swiftness with which it happens will be stunning. And it gives me hope. [END]