1) The Ukrainian military is training young men for three days, and putting them on the front lines. There is just no way you can teach a person how to be a soldier in 3 days, and expect him to survive what is to come. bbc.com/news/world-eur…
2) Some quotes from the @BBC article: "I got used to my gun. I learned how to shoot and how to act in the battle, also many other things that will be very crucial in the fight with the Russians."
3) "I feel much more confident than I was before, because we get enough knowledge in tactics, in martial arts, in tactical medicine and in how to do something on the battlefield."
Let's be clear, you cannot become even moderately proficient in any of those tasks in 3 days.
4) Also, there is more to being a soldier than the most basic of training. How will they react under fire? Can they fight as a unit and maintain unit cohesion when the bullets, rockets, and artillery fly? Etc.
5) Again, the Russians are clearly having their own tactical problems. This @BBC article highlights a very serious manpower & training problem for the Ukrainians.
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1) A quick update on what is happening on the ground. Short answer, not a lot of movement by the Russians over the last several days, except in the east. The Russians appear to consolidating their lines/logistics for pushes against Kiev, and in the east and south. Map from @BBC
2) The Russians continue to attempt to push into the suburbs of Kiev, although it is unclear if these are probing attacks or full assaults. The Ukrainians continue to put up stiff resistance. The Russians appear to be increasing the shelling of the capital.
3) From @nytimes: "Vitali Klitschko (mayor of Kiev), announced a 35-hour curfew ... which has seen an intensification of Russian bombardment... residents are not allowed to move around the city except with special permission or to go to a bomb shelter."
1) @nytimes continues to publish its excellent battle maps. This series focuses on 3 fronts: Kiev, Kharkiv, and the wider south. I will also look at the east/Donbas front.
2) First, Kiev. Russian forces don't appear to have made major gains here, but appear to be positioning for an assault or siege of the capital. The mayor of Chernihiv said the city is now surrounded. Russian forces appear to be bypassing the city & are pushing southward to Kiev.
3) Chernihiv province is close to being enveloped. The Russian column in the northeast that we've heard so much about is reported to be fanning out across the countryside & deploying artillery/rocket launchers that oriented at the capital.
1) On urban warfare. This in no way should be interpreted as a defense of Russian-inflicted civilian casualties (it will anyway), which I condemn. The harsh reality is that when you decide to defend cities, you will incur civilian casualties & damage to civilian infrastructure.
2) Both sides chose to fight in an urban setting. From Mayor Vitali Klitschko: "Kyiv has been transformed into a fortress. Every street, every building, every checkpoint has been fortified." bbc.com/news/live/worl…
3) There are numerous photographs & videos from the capital and other cities that show armed checkpoints and defensive positions in or around civilian buildings & areas. I've seen video of Ukrainian troops firing anti-tank missiles from apartment building rooftops.
1) On Russian generals dying in battle. This is going to be perceived as a "pro Russian" threat, but it isn't. Ukraine is claiming that it has killed the 2nd Russian general , this is being touted as evidence of a defeated Russian military. It isn't. thehill.com/policy/interna…
2) The Russians are having problems among its front line units. When this happens, senior officers should move to the front to deal with it. This can often fix things. It appears this is what the Russians are going.
3) Leading from the front isn't something a cowardly or incompetent commander does. Leading from the front means you risk dying at the front.
10) ... it makes sense the Russians will hold a line stretching south from the west of of Kiev down to somewhere along the Moldavian border (Transnistria). Or west of a line along the M05 highway. This would completely cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, a strategic objective.
11) The M05 highway runs north-south from Kiev to Odesa. Again this is an operation that would take weeks or months to develop. But if Kiev falls this changes the timeline calculus.
12) Kiev is without a doubt a strategic objective for the Russians but by no means the only objective. A look at the RUSMIL offensive shows this operation was not launched in haste because Kiev didn't fall and Zelensky didn't capitulate on day 2.
1) A look at the military situation in eastern and central Ukraine, & around the capital of Kiev. This will use several maps, from @nytimes & @Bcc. First the overall picture, using map from @nytimes. The strategic situation for Ukrainian force in Kiev & to the east is not good.
@nytimes@Bcc 2) There hasn't been a lot of movement by the Russians overall (compared to the first week that is), however it appears the Russians are consolidating their positions, preparing/positioning, and moving with the goal of the encirclement of several key regions.
@nytimes@Bcc 3) Russian forces are moving to cut off the far eastern areas close to the Donbas region, both northeast of Mariupol, and east of Izyum.