Thread by @billroggio

1) A quick update on what is happening on the ground. Short answer, not a lot of movement by the Russians over the last several days, except in the east. The Russians appear to consolidating their lines/logistics for pushes against Kiev, and in the east and south. Map from @BBC

2) The Russians continue to attempt to push into the suburbs of Kiev, although it is unclear if these are probing attacks or full assaults. The Ukrainians continue to put up stiff resistance. The Russians appear to be increasing the shelling of the capital.

3) From @nytimes: "Vitali Klitschko (mayor of Kiev), announced a 35-hour curfew ... which has seen an intensification of Russian bombardment... residents are not allowed to move around the city except with special permission or to go to a bomb shelter."

4) As noted the other day, young Ukrainian men are being recruited and trained in 3 days, then pushed to the front or near it. Keep in mind that in Kiev, the city is on the front line.

https://twitter.com/billroggio/status/1503108143353679874

5) In short, the Ukrainians are preparing for a Russian assault on the capital. It is unclear if the Russians want to assault it, or starve it out. If the latter, the Russians have work to do, the southern door remains open.

6) The most worrying situation is in the far east, where Russian forces are close to encircling the region north of Luhansk. On the map you can see tendrils of Russian forces operating between Luhansk and Kharkiv. Also the Russians are pushing on Izium & Slovyansk (not shown).

7) Izium, Slovyansk, and Dnipro are key eastern cities to watch. The capture of Izium & Slovyansk would close off much of the region east of a line stretching from Kharkiv to Donetsk. The capture of Dnipro would essentially seal the fate of the entire east.

8) Russian troops are currently operating in villages outside of Izium. The mayor of Izium, from Ukrinform: “The city of Izium has been under siege for two weeks. No water, electricity, heat services, food, medicines, communication. The situation is not better than in Mariupol."

9) Continued, and note the second half of the sentence: "“The enemy is insidiously shelling the road towards Sloviansk, and the road towards Kharkiv is controlled by Russian occupiers." ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/343…

10) The Russians are also shaping the battlefield for a potential battle in Dnipro: From Ukriform: "Russian invaders fired missiles at Dnipro, destroying a runway and severely damaging infrastructure." The airport has only 1 runway...
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/343…

11) "'A runway was destroyed. A terminal was damaged. Large-scale destruction,'" Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration Valentyn Reznichenko posted on Facebook. Reznichenko noted that it would take a long time to restore the airport."

12) In the south, Mariupol remains defiant and under siege. Russia is preventing humanitarian relief. Russian forces appear to be expanding operations northwest of the city and are attempting to control the region.

13) Ukrainian forces in Mykolaiv also remain defiant and are putting up stiff resistance. The Russians appear to be working to surround the city. @CNN has a brief report with good details.
cnn.com/europe/live-ne…

14) From @CNN: "Both bridges leading into Mykolaiv were raised Monday morning, according to CNN’s team on the ground, closing the main routes in and out of city as Russian presence is currently active in the north and southeast regions, essentially encircling it."

15) This likely means the Ukrainians blew the bridge leading to Odesa: "The bridge leading west to Odessa has now come down."

16) Russian forces continue to slowly march north from Mykolaiv, but it is unclear if they are moving towards Dnipro, Kiev, or Odesa, or some combination, or all 3. It is a long road to Kiev and Dnipro from there, that kind of operation would take weeks or months to develop ...

17) ... Cutting off Odesa is easier. But Ukrainian resistance has made little easy for the Russians.