Mafevema #CommonGround Profile picture
Mar 14 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
đź‘Ť analysis on #ProgressiveAlliance
"Even the one piece of constructive news comes with alarm bells. Labour & the Lib Dems have clearly agreed a non-aggression pact but they have seemingly failed to reach any agreement about the use of proportional representation"
Summary 🧵
The Lib Dems finally have some leverage now; they should use it while they can to secure assurances on electoral reform.
The basic error of the two parties excluding the Greens should ring another alarm bell.
The Greens have virtually no chance to win a 2nd MP but environmental issues are prominent enough that the Greens will peel off votes from a significant number of Labour or Lib Dem & allow Conservatives to win
This is the car crash that the “traffic-light” parties are heading for. It’s happened before, but they seem to have learned nothing. Further "the seething hatred between Labour and the SNP means they refuse to face the fact that Labour-SNP cooperation could be crucial."
To avoid the next car crash, the progressive parties need to do two things. First, they must bring the Greens into the Lib-Lab non-aggression pact. Second, the Lib Dems should be driving a hard bargain with Labour for electoral reform, with a proportional-voting system agreed now
The commitment to electoral reform should be part of a platform of core policies that make it into Labour, Lib Dem &Green manifestos, so anyone wanting to vote for one party can vote tactically for another & still support the main themes.
The list of core policies doesn’t have to be long – it could be just four or five – and they can be worded differently in each
But the bedrock has to be PR for the House of Commons. It is no magic bullet, but it’s the only way the smaller parties can cooperate. The Greens in particular have no incentive to pull back from their spoiler campaigns if they’re not offered PR
Labour has so much to gain by embracing it – not just electorally, but to ensure a the achievements of a Labour-led government aren’t undone in the next swing to the right.
How is it that all this which is OBVIOUS to many of us who have been advocating it for months still seems to bypass the leaderships of the 3 parties????

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More from @mafevema

Mar 13
I found terrifying -thinking of India, Pakistan, Iran, Israel-that the West has now set the precedent that if a leader is mad enough or cynical enough to threaten nuclear force, then he can destroy the country next door & commit atrocities while the world watches the gory details
It seems to me - but of course I am no expert- that the West - for this read the US, the only power who has vastly superior forces to his own- should have reacted to Putin's threat differently. Calmly but leaving him in no doubt that threatening humanity placed Russia beyond
the pale & that any attack would be reciprocated 10 times while at the same time bringing massively more troops on Ukraine borders - 10,000 is a joke, at least 150,000 are needed to constitute a threat - to make him pause.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 2
The EU is banning 70 per cent of Belarus’s exports to the bloc including all potash, a vital component of fertilisers, over its support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The UK 👇...well...
The EU will stop imports of wood, cement, steel, potash and other materials worth more than €4bn annually. EU companies have three months to wind up contracts with Belarusian suppliers.
It will stop imports of wood, cement, steel, potash and other materials worth more than €4bn annually. EU companies have three months to wind up contracts with Belarusian suppliers.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
Very interesting piece in @ft on the effects of the sanctions on the Russian Central bank & the SWIFT ban.
1.foreign exchange reserves are a key pillar of Russia's economic strength. The western allies are attempting to undermine its ability to tap the stockpile
2.A large chunk of Russia's foreign exchange stockpile is held overseas in the US, Germany, France, UK, Austria and Japan.(see right graph)
3. Withour access to the FE reserves, the CBR will be hamstrung in its ability to defend the rouble. It could eventually lead to bank runs. Russians have already been flocking to banks to withdraw cash
Read 12 tweets
Feb 27
Totally agree.
Democracies have behaved well, far better than Putin expected.
They acted collectively, accepted to take very big hits in principle (particularly Germany & Italy but also to their financial sectors) & showed resolve & determination. 1/4
Now they have to show long term resilience under public pressure, no doubt agitated by Russian propaganda & pro-russians collaborators within ,( @MLP_officiel @ERICZEMMOUR2022 @matteosalvinimi @Nigel_Farage ) 2/
In the UK, UKG must in particular follow through on oligarchs money. 👇 will greatly help but it will be tough & require Opposition vigilance in Parliament. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
Les pourvoyeurs de haine et de peur @ERICZEMMOUR2022 @MLP_officiel ont eut une TRES mauvaise semaine. 1/
Les democracies soit disant impuissantes:
1. ont ce soir gelé tous les actifs en monnaie étrangère de la Russie, le trésor de guerre de M. Poutine dont les médias nous rabattaient les oreilles. Complètement inutilisable...2/
2. ont envoyé armes, fioul & munitions à l'Ukraine. Même l'Allemagne qui a répudié (au moins momentairement) une décision stratégique de plusieurs décennies
3.ont accepté le risque de coupures d'energie et mis fin à Nord Stream II
4. Loin de s'Ă©craser devant Pourine, 3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 26
Great, great news!
This may not turn out so well for M. Putin after all.

His war chest is useless & mostly inaccessible.

His army isn't winning & demotivated by strong resistance 1/
on.ft.com/3vn7gMQ via @FT
His close entourage is under sanctions & so is he (the cosy retirement in a Putin's Palace is no longer an option)
His whole Duma of laqueys under sanctions too ( & likely furious).
A courageous proportion of his population is protesting & many others do not support his war 2/
The "weak democracies" turn out to have guts after all & are harming his economy, personal finances & arming #Ukraine

Some will start to question his judgement openly & turn against him.
Maybe not yet. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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