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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
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Mar 15 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Wow, what a scoop by @johnismay. Russia has been firing Iskander missiles with penetration aids to fool missile defenses, meaning we get to see the Russian PENAIDS themselves. I never expected to see these.
In this case, the penetration aid appears to be a radio transponder to spoof or jam radars and a flare to fool infrared sensors.
The Iskander can release PENAIDS from six ports in the base of the missile. You can see the ports in this image -- they are the big circles around the base on this training dummy.
Russia fired Iskanders during the 2008 war with Georgia, but I didn't see any PENAIDS in the debris. @DuitsyWasHere and I wondered if the Russian's removed them prior to use or people just didn't recognize them.
We also didn't see any PENAIDS during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, although Azerbaijan displayed some debris that included some Iskander parts. I doubt very much that Russia exports the Iskander with PENAIDS.
caspiannews.com/news-detail/fr…
If you are interested, @CAT_UXO has a nice write-up of the PENAID, which it calls the "9B899". I suspect this page will be regularly updated as we learn more.
cat-uxo.com/explosive-haza…

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More from @ArmsControlWonk

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Mar 4
The answer to the question is: "I am not sure, but I don't feel great about it."
inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.150…
As of right now, radiation levels are normal. You can see them online:
npp.zp.ua/en/safety/arms
Here is an archived image from the past so you have some reference for normal "not being attacked by Russia" levels.
Read 8 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Feb 24
According @googlemaps, there is a "traffic jam" at 3:15 in the morning on the road from Belgorod, Russia to the Ukrainian border. It starts *exactly* where we saw a Russian formation of armor and IFV/APCs show up yesterday.
Someone's on the move.
To clear up a misconception: The traffic data is most likely NOT from soldiers carrying smartphones. Instead, civilians are probably getting stuck at roadblocks and @googlemaps is recording that.
The "traffic jam" now stretches to the border with Ukraine. @madwonk and @triciawh1te have been sitting here watching creep down the road.
Read 6 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Feb 11
Saudi Arabia got released some footage of "Iranian missiles in Yemen in 2017" that turned out to be "Saddam's missiles in Iraq from 2003" that someone stole from a documentary, #SevereClear A short thread on a wild story by @garymbaum in @THR.
The Saudis showed a satellite image of a port in Yemen where the claimed, followed by "secret" video showing the missiles. @miis_ford translated the slides. ImageImage
The problem, as many online observers pointed out, is that the video of the missiles is taken from a documentary about the invasion of Iraq called "Severe Clear." The Saudis showed a brief excerpt three times; the full clip that I added shows the full clip with US soldiers.
Read 9 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Feb 11
The idea that international pressure can indefinitely keep Iran as a nuclear threshold state strikes me as one of the dumbest ideas I I have ever seen held by a government official.
Reminds me when I told a Japanese official that North Korea would test an ICBM and a thermonuclear weapon soon.
"Be patient, we need to give sanctions a few years to work."
"You don't have years."
That was November 2016.
Iran as a threshold state is almost certainly going to end up as Iran the opaque proliferator. I seem to recall some other state in the region that made that particular journey.
armscontrol.org/act/2007-06/fe… The general picture from th...
Read 5 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Jan 30
A brief guide to DPRK missile watching online.

North Korea is going to be launching a lot of interesting stuff again. Here's the information we get, where we get it from and when.
Within minutes, the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff usually texts an announcement to reporters first. This appears in @YonhapNews, ROK's state media, which will update the story repeatedly through the day, adding details each time. Yonhap has issued four versions of the story already. Image
The details usually include the time of launch, place, distance and apogee. The ROK used to give flight-time; lately they've been giving burnout velocity in the form of a Mach number. These estimates are rounded and often don't match what the North Koreans will later say.
Read 9 tweets
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Jan 30
It's probably a 4,500 km-range Hwasong-12 IRBM based on the trajectory. Compare:

Hwasong-12 test on May 14 2012:
787 km range
2,111.5 km apogee
~30 minute flight time.

UI missile test on January 29, 2022
800 km range
>2000 km apogee
~30 minute flight time Image
North Korea has tested a lot missiles recently, but this is a big step. In 2018, Kim announced a moratorium on intermediate- and intercontinental-range ballistic missile launches. North Korea has now broken that moratorium. ICBM tests are almost certain to follow.
I should say: The ROK/GOJ numbers could turn out to be wrong. Or it could be a new missile, like a solid, with a similar range as the Hwasong-12. We won't know until we see pictures tomorrow. So, caveat lector. But for now, it looks like a Hwasong-12.
Read 5 tweets

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