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Mar 15 • 2 tweets • 2 min read
The climate spiral, showing changes in global temperature since 1880.

2022 edition, by @marksubbarao and NASA SVS.

svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4975
@marksubbarao This new version is based on an original from 2016, which ended up being used in the Opening Ceremony of the Rio Olympics.
The story of the original, with @janfug & @taranfn: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…

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Ed Hawkins Profile picture
Dec 19, 2021
How do scientists assess policy-relevant risks?

A short thread.
When making policy decisions with uncertain information, the most likely outcome is usually not the most relevant.

This is because unlikely events do happen. And these unlikely events can have severe consequences.

Policy-makers need to avoid severe consequences occurring.
With covid, the potential severe consequences are that health services are overrun with patients, causing cascading effects with staff off sick, cancelled appointments, deaths, more long-covid and knock-on effects throughout society.
Read 9 tweets
Ed Hawkins Profile picture
Aug 18, 2021
Some figures from Chapter 1 of the new IPCC AR6 physical climate science report: ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…

1/ Baselines and reference periods. Ever been confused about different climate baselines? Figures 1.11 and 1.12 may help, along with the discussion in Section 1.4.1.
2/ Climate variability. Short term fluctuations in the climate can temporarily obscure or enhance longer term trends. The size of the fluctuations depends on the variable of interest and spatial scale.

Figure 1.13 and Section 1.4.2 may help explain this.
3/ Emergence. Both the rate of change & the size of climate fluctuations matter for how climate change is experienced. The tropics tends to warm less but has smaller variations so has a larger 'signal-to-noise' ratio; the change is more apparent.
See Figure 1.14 & Section 1.4.2.
Read 15 tweets
Ed Hawkins Profile picture
Jul 16, 2021
Dear @BBCNews: this phrase, used in several recent articles, is not a fair representation of the science on extremes.

”Experts say that climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, but linking any single event to global warming is complicated.”
How about “Experts say that climate change is already increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, and many single events have been shown to have been made worse by global warming.” instead?
Perhaps @BBCAmos, @MattMcGrathBBC, @RHarrabin or @davidshukmanbbc could chat (again?) with the news team? The science has moved on and it would be great to see that reflected in the news coverage of extreme weather events, rather than the current inaccurate stock phrase.
Read 4 tweets
Ed Hawkins Profile picture
Jun 21, 2021
How have the #ShowYourStripes graphics been used to start conversations about climate change in the past? (1/n)

Worn by Senators during the 2020 State of the Union address in the US: bbc.co.uk/news/av/scienc…
Displayed by @ENTERSHIKARI during Reading Festival to thousands of music fans. The lead singer @RouReynolds discusses what they mean and why they are important during the performance, stimulating new conversations. (2/n)
Made into dress form by @huprice, and worn when visiting policymakers to discuss climate change. (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
Ed Hawkins Profile picture
Jun 21, 2021
The planet is warming due to human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels & deforestation.

Climate change is happening here & now, and is already affecting everyone. The consequences will get worse for each bit of further warming.

#ShowYourStripes ShowYourStripes.info
Today is #ShowYourStripes day, when people around the world share how the climate is changing where they live. These graphics start conversations about our changing climate and what we can do about it.

Here are my stripes. Download yours: ShowYourStripes.info
TV meteorologists around the world are joining #ShowYourStripes to discuss how climate change is affecting their countries.

Here is @mollenweather showing the stripes for Uganda:
Read 9 tweets
Ed Hawkins Profile picture
May 13, 2021
Two years ago there were 65,000 sheets of paper containing hand-written measurements of rainfall taken all across the UK & Ireland before 1960. Virtually all of the 5.28 million observations on these sheets were unavailable to climate scientists as they had never been digitised.
Thanks to @metoffice archives, these sheets were scanned & made openly available, but how could the observations be extracted?

The answer? Ask for help: bbc.co.uk/news/science-e…

16,000 volunteers stepped forward during the first UK COVID lockdown to transcribe every observation.
After a year of continued effort by a small team of volunteers we can now release the data!

Rainfall Rescue dataset v1.0.0:
doi.org/10.5281/zenodo…

3.3 million observations have been quality controlled, and combined into time series from 8485 rain gauges from 6095 locations.
Read 7 tweets

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