Thread by @jonboybeats

NCAA #MarchMadness Bracket Trends thread…based on tournament data since 2010

Here’s a ton of trends that have held steady over the last 10+ years of madness. I typically use this as a tool to backcheck against once my bracket is filled out.

Here we go…

There has been an average of 9 upsets in the Round of 64 each year

2015 had the least with 5, and 2016 had the most with 13. There has been 4 years since 2010 that had 10 first round upsets

This one’s a no-brainer, make sure you aren’t just picking the lower seeds every game!

There has been an average of 2 wins by 13/14/15 seeds in the Round of 64

2021 had the most with 4, and 2017 had the least with 0. Every other year there was been at least 1 win!

So it’s wise to pick one or two cinderellas…but how do we best identify them?

Typically these higher seeds are Automatic Bids from some of the smaller conferences. Because of this, they usually have pretty good records. There’s some small edges when the 13 thru 15 seeds have a better regular season record than their opponent

44 games (33%) over the past 11 tourneys have included a 13-15 Seed with a better record than opponent. The Cinderella’s have an 8-36 record which accounts for 36% of their wins

Small edge, but worth taking a shot

This year: Vermont, Mont St, Longwood, Chattanooga, S. Dakota St

Every year there is an average of 3.6 wins by 11 or 12 seeds in the Round of 64.

No tourney has seen less than 2 of these wins.

This is because typically the 5 & 6 seeds are some of the weaker at large bids, while the 11 & 12 seeds are the strongest auto-bids

In 8 of the last 11 tourneys, there has been a Round of 32 matchup between two double digit seeds. The 2012 tourney had two of these matchups.

Make sure your bracket includes one of these “bracket buster” matchups!

The 7-10 and 8-9 matchups are typically coin flips between two really similar teams. Usually the spreads are close and you are really just trying to find the winners who are going to face the #1 & #2 Seed powerhouses in R32.

How to guess these coin flips?

The team with the better reg. season record has a 54-34 record (61%) in the Round of 64 matchups between the 7-10 and 8-9 seeds. From 2010 thru 2018, they ran at a 69% win rate.

This year: Davidson, Boise State, Murray State, North Carolina, Loyola Chicago, Seton Hall, USC, SDSU

Now let’s get crazy…

Do you have a region in your bracket that’s filling out all chalk? Meaning the #1 thru #8 seeds all are winning their first round games?

Probably wise to switch that up. We haven’t had a chalk first round region in 10 of the last 11 tourneys

What about a region on your bracket that has 3 or more R64 upsets? In nine of the last eleven years, there’s been at least one of these Regions. On average there’s 1.6 regions w/ > 3 upsets and we’ve seen three ea. in the last 2 yrs

Best to pick one region that’s an explosion!

Momentum is a helluva drug in March. With 28% of the R64 games ending in upsets, this trend Carrie’s right into the Round of 32 where we see 28% of upsets there as well.

Best to pick at least 4 teams to advance to the Sweet 16 as underdogs. What about those Cinderella’s though?

Since 2010, we have seen 26 teams make the Sweet 16 as a double digit seed.

On average 2.4 double digit seeds make it past the first weekend

Every tourney except for 2019 has seen at least 1

Remember how picking all chalk in the R64 wasn’t smart? It’s also not smart to do this for the Sweet 16.

In 44 Regions since 2010, there’s only been 5 where the #1 thru #4 seeds all made it to the Sweet 16.

Lean into those underdog picks and ride them into next weekend!

Every single tourney since 2010 has had a Final Four team that higher than a #4 seed. Odds are it’s not going to be all the #1’s battling it out in New Orleans

The reg. season record relative to Region actually plays out well

On average 2 of 4 Final Four teams have come from the cohort that makes up the 2 best records in each region

West - Gonzaga, Vermont
East - Murray St, Baylor
South - Arizona, Houston
Midwest - S Dakota St, Auburn

Lastly, the four conferences that send the most teams to the Big Dance every year usually make up about 40% of the field.

However, they make up 58% of the Final Four participants since 2010.

This year…the top 4 conferences are Big Ten (9), Big 12, Big East, and SEC (6 each)

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