If the FG removes fuel subsidy, is there any guarantee that the "savings" would be used for development projects for the people? The answer is No Technically the "savings" will reflect in a lower budget deficit from N6 - N4 Trillion. Those projects must already be in the budget.
It is important for Nigerians to know that the pathway to any sustainable development for the people must go through appropriation and the budget process. This fiscal reality also means we must be prepared for other "realities" (like debt serving) to take precedence over SDGs.
I don't kid myself in expectation that a removal of subsidy will suddenly bring the Eldorado we seek. That it'll provide govt more funding as it logically shd or that everything will pan out as planned. I'll rather work with the conservative view that it may or may not. #Diesel
Manage your expectations and maybe you won't be too disappointed. One thing is sure, to cushion the effects of any subsidy removal, the things that affect people the most, must already be in place. Good & affordable mass transport + food, good healthcare & availability of power.
Que - How do you achieve this without first spending money you don't have?
Ans: 1) By taking loans (higher budget deficit) 2) By increasing non-oil revenue (Higher tax collection: raising taxes or expanding tax net) 3) Selling Assets 4) Cutting size of govt 5) All of the above
The next administration has its work cut out. The first task must be to manage people's expectations by explaining to Nigerians the true challenges and the road to overcoming it rather than lies wrapped in the cloak of political speech or campaign.
But can we handle the truth?
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If something cost N200 and you're asked to pay N150, you're literally being given N50 to spend as you wish. That is exactly the case with Fuel subsidy. For every litre of subsidized PMS you buy or benefits derived from it, the FG is giving YOU money to use on anything YOU want.
This is what makes the issue of subsidy very personal. People can at least feel like they're benefiting something from the govt for a product produced in their country. The benefit is direct and personal and they feel it's about them. Call it their own slice of the National Cake.
The contrast is the case when subsidy is removed. When subsidy is removed, Govt is essentially asking people to pay the full cost so that it can save the money to build roads, rails, hospitals and infrastructure for "us". It's not direct or personal, it's indirect and impersonal
There are 3 main elements I think we need to consider.
1. You can't discuss the review of the current revenue sharing formula without discussing the restructuring of Nigeria. To achieve an equitable formula along the lines of your argument will require a constitutional amendment
Why do I say so? Just look at the 2nd Schedule of the Nigerian constitution which contains 68 items on the Exclusive Legislative List, as against 30 items on the Concurrent list. There is no way, you can have an equitable formula without reviewing this list and amending the CFRN.
2. While FG takes 52.68% of revenue, the effective rate is the same rate as 1999 48.5% (CRF). The remaining is allocated:
‘Let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us.’
Hebrews 12:1 NIV
1. The story is told of a traveller who met a guru along the road and asked him, ‘Where’s the road to success?’ The bearded sage didn’t speak but instead pointed to a place off in the far distance. The man, thrilled at the prospect of quick and easy success, rushed off in the...
2...appropriate direction. Splat! Down he went! He limped back, bruised & stunned. Assuming he must have misinterpreted the message, he repeated his question & again the philosopher pointed silently in the same direction. So the traveller took off once more. This time the splat..
"Being rich for us was something else. Rich for us was food to eat, drink to drink. You have a big plate in the middle of the table with some jollof rice and some chicken? You are rich that day, my friend" - Antonio Rudiger
"For me, football was not about dreaming. It was about survival. It was almost like choosing to become a plumber or a baker or a lawyer. It was a way to provide. I would be lying to you if I said that I dreamed of having big cars or playing in the Champions League or whatever."
"I was in the kitchen one morning and I asked my mother for a little bit of money. I think it was for a school trip or something. It was just a few euros. But she couldn't give it to me. And I remember exactly what hurt me. It wasn't that she said no. It was the look on her face"
"Why did the press, fans & players all come together to stop the Super League in 48hrs, but when there is racist abuse at a stadium, it's always “complicated”?
Maybe because it's not just a few idiots in the stands.
One day I was walking down the street near my building when I saw an older German lady carrying some grocery bags. She was like a grandma, very weak and struggling. So I went over to help her. I said, “Here, I’ll help you with the bags. I can take them up.” And I will never...
...forget this lady turning to me, and the look of fear on her face. She thought that I was trying to steal her bags. She really thought that I was robbing her. It was just a moment. But you can’t get that moment back. The innocence ― it’s gone.