1/10 New @COVIDSciOntario modelling released today. Key findings: We‘ll likely see a bump in hospitalization as public health measures cease – probably less than in January if we change behaviours slowly. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u… Image
2/10 Slides 3 & 4: Wastewater signal isn’t dropping anymore. Ontario is probably seeing 15,000 to 20,000 new infections every day. #COVID19ON Image
3/10 Slides 5 & 6: Test positivity has also stopped dropping and in some populations is growing a bit. #COVID19ON Image
4/10 Slide 7: Poor neighbourhoods are still hardest hit, as they have been since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. #COVID19ON Image
5/10 Slide 8: Ontarians have already started moving around more – a sign of more contacts. #COVID19ON Image
6/10 Slides 9 & 10: Nonetheless, we’re likely to see less of an increase in hospitalizations than in January. We can keep it low by getting vaccinated, wearing good masks when inside, and increasing contacts only moderately. #COVID19ON Image
7/10 Slides 11, 12 & 13: Third doses (not to mention first & second) are as critical as they have ever been. But they’ve plateaued – and are especially low among poorer Ontarians. #COVID19ON Image
8/10 Slide 14, 15: Immunity is Ontario’s best protection against a future variant. And masks are still key to reducing spread. #COVID19ON Image
9/10 Slide 16: We can’t forget what we learned during the emergency, & we need to maintain the tools we’ve built. #COVID19ON Image
10/10 Slide 17: The global pandemic isn’t over & Ontario remains vulnerable. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u… Image

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More from @COVIDSciOntario

Dec 24, 2021
1/7 New slide deck released today “Ask Ontario’s Science Table: Omicron Edition” covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/a… which answers questions on how to stay safe and protect our communities this holiday season. Share, screenshot & print.
2/7 Given sharply increasing case counts and the transmissibility of Omicron, consider postponing gatherings, moving them outdoors or virtual. If you do gather, keep it as small as possible and use multiple layers of protection to stay safe.
3/7 Think of these layers of protection as slices of Swiss cheese. No single action is perfectly safe, there are holes. But like Swiss cheese, more layers means fewer holes.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
1/10 Today's Omicron briefing . A 5-pt plan to blunt Omicron (slide 16): (1) Cut contacts by 50%; (2) acc boosters to HCW & vulnerable; (3) masking, distancing & ventilation (4) put treatments where they are most needed; (5) act now. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
2/10 Slide 4 & 5: Cases are rising across Ontario & Omicron will be dominant this week. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
3/10 Slide 6 & 7: South Africa itself – sometimes cited as evidence of O’s slower severity -- is now seeing hospitalizations rise with Omicron. But the rise in death there is less steep than in previous waves. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Read 10 tweets
Dec 15, 2021
1/4 Pls take note: Omicron Rt is now 4.29. Every person with Omicron is infecting more than four other people. By comparison, anyone with Delta in Ontario currently infects only 1 other person. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
2 / 4 Omicron is doubling in Ontario every three days. Every. Three. Days. We have no evidence that this is a less severe form of COVID-19. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
3 / 4 Time to accelerate boosters (that yellow line at the bottom). Boosters won’t stop Ontario’s 5th wave right now; they take time to protect a population. But they WILL protect you. Book one as soon as you can, six months after your 2nd shot. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Read 4 tweets
Dec 13, 2021
Omicron is here 1/5 We’re now following Omicron closely on our dashboard. Some key figures: Rt for Omicron is 3.32 (!!!), compared to 1.27 for all variants combined…. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Omicron is here 2/5: Just. Look. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Omicron is here 3/5 21% of Ontario’s cases are now Omicron. The number of Omicron cases here is doubling every three (!!) days. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo…
Read 5 tweets
Sep 28, 2021
We’ve just released new COVID modeling. We’ll take you through it in eight tweets. You can get the deck here: covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u… #COVID19ON
Slides 3/4/5: We’re walking a narrow ledge. Positivity down but not consistently across ages & 19/34 PHUs have growing cases. We’re ok for now, but we have no wiggle room. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 6 & 7: Vaccines are our most important weapon & we have to reach more Ontarians. But until vaxx rates are much higher, the combo of current vaxx rates & public health measures are helping to control cases. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Read 10 tweets
Aug 22, 2021
There appear to be some rumours that the Science Advisory Table is withholding a consensus model of COVID-19 in the Fall. To be absolutely clear, that is not true. Pls read thread 1/4
We are now working to understand how COVID-19 may affect Ontario in coming months. As always, that means integrating the views arising from *many* models done by *many* teams and reviewing those results *across* teams until we generate a reasonable, scientific consensus. 2/4
Anything less is not rigorous science, and risks either underestimating or overestimating the real dangers we may face. A lot of mathematical and scientific work goes into generating a modelling consensus that Ontarians can count on; we move quickly, but not prematurely. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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