Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
Mar 19, 2022 9 tweets 17 min read Read on X
Real time #DataforUkraine on #civilianresistance, #humanrightsabuses, #internallydisplacedpeople & #humanitarianneeds #RussianInvasionOfUkraine. Hourly information 4 jurnos, citizens, NGOs, & policymakers working in/on #Ukraine check it out mlp.trinity.duke.edu/dataforukraine… 🧵 1/7
#DataForUkraine we know 3 hrs sooner than media of potential warm crimes with this data on human rights abuses. The spikes mean a significant event has occurred. Our detailed data= when what & how & will be helpful to @DmytroKuleba @ICJ_org @ECHR_CEDH @hrw @HRF @UNHumanRights 2/7
#DataForUkraine we know 3 hrs sooner than the media can report of major internal displacement & displaced people fleeing on the move. Again, spikes mean a significant event of displacement has occurred. Our detailed data let’s us know where that is happening. 3/7
#DataForUkraine again we know 3 hrs sooner than the media has a chance to report new humanitarian needs as well as successful support being delivered. Our detailed data let’s us know if it is needs or support and it’s location. 4/7
#DataForUkraine This map graphs the incidence of reporting on our four event types across the districts (rayons) of Ukraine. More specifically, it shows the percent change in reporting over the last hour in each rayon. 5/7
#DataForUkraine The broader network of tweets we collect on the war in Ukraine allow us to identify the most significant sources of Russian mis/disinformation. These are the 30 most tweeted accounts spreading mis/disinformation. Coming soon: mlp.trinity.duke.edu/disinformation… 6/7

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More from @oonuch

Jun 12
A 🧵ON NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE May/June 2024 @MOBILISEproject

70% of Ukrainians agree Zelenskyy should continue as president during martial law. Support ranges from 65% in the East to 74% in the South.

Full report with analysis here: mobiliseproject.com/wp-content/upl…

Image
NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE @MOBILISEproject

Zelenskyy's approval at 56%. Voting intentions show a tie between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi at 27%, with Poroshenko at 7%. Image
NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE @MOBILISEproject

Enthusiasm for Zelenskyy dropped from 33% in July 2022 to 8% in May 2024. Sympathy remains stable at 18%. Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 8
Correcting bad takes on Amb. Zaluzhnyi & dozens of media request

🧵of my analysis (I’m on record voiceing this in briefings in Whitehall/Wesrminster 3 weeks back)

1) Those who r surprised by Zaluzhnyi being in the fold don’t know full back story & haven’t been privy to info
2) Importantly tensions were blown up to be larger than they were. Not least, as reported in @washingtonpost some of the reports were part of a Russian disinformation campaign from 2022.

Disagreements existed but not in way some interpreted.
3) Zaluzhny is a patriot and is committed 2 being part of the team & Zelensky wants him in the fold, just in a different role. You might not agree what role but that is not up to you.

Ukraine’s allies also want Zaluzhny in the fold. More on that to come.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 14
Shame @TorontoStar publishes such uninformed a-empirical navel grazing about what is & is not „rational.” See exert👇by some who has never studied Ukraine or the region properly.
1) If it is a war of attrition it is certainly also 1 that Russia cannot win. Image
2) Reminder in a democracy what citizens wantmatters - 80%+ of Ukrainians = vehemently opposed to ANY territorial concessions as @MOBILISEproject data show
Image
Image
3) But to be clear not only does popular will matter in a democracy normatively & de jure, it also should be a major concern of any serious (be it realist or ratchoice) analysts when suggesting a likely war game outcome.

Understanding human capital in a democracy 1 also understands limits of possible & probably actions actors - the analysts purport to know - can make.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 3
On the 9th day of new Ukrainian Christmas
@MOBILISEproject
#poliscinerds gave to me
9 main news sources
8/10 civilian resistance
7 citizen facts
6 language facts
5 years of financial data
4 priorities
3 leaders
2 preferences
1 support 4 democracy
Image
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MOBILISE PROJECT PANEL DATA
Nationally Representative Survey
Collected by KIIS
CATI mode N= 1,200 - 2,000
Margin of error is no greater than 3.3% for 50%+
All data nationally representative of the 18+ population
All data weighted to the population
What media do Ukrainians consume for political news?
The main story here is that TV viewership has gone down and significantly whilst internet use for new has gone up from 64% of those using the internet for news in 2019 to 90% in 2023. Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 3, 2023
Who is @rustem_umerov you might be asking & how should his replacing @oleksiireznikov be interpreted?

“The Ministry needs new approaches &…formats of interaction with both army & society… Fall is a time to strengthen.” Said @ZelenskyyUa in his address.

Small 🧵

1
Umerov was Holos Party MP & not Ze or Sluha inner circle & is Crimean Tatar
His appointment is signal of
- constructive cooperation with pol factions that are at times very critical of Ze
- 🇺🇦 won’t give up on - a pushback to mistaken US analysts trying to force negotiations.
2
Umerov was a participant in the March 2022 peace negotiations. He is not an outsider. He is not inexperienced. He is not unknown among Ukrainian leaders (political or military), Ukraine’s allies or among the Russians. But he also has respect & contacts in Turkey & Saudi Arabia
3
Read 8 tweets
Jul 20, 2023
When reporting on Russia’s announcement of their blockade of grain shipments from Ukraine through the Black Sea please remember the following a🧵

1. Instead of using language such as “halted” “deal” make sure you use language that explains that this is “Russia’s blockade” 1/n
2. Not only is this an aggressive Russian blockade on 🇺🇦 grain shipments raising global grain prices (benefitting major grain producers that ramped up production 🇷🇺🇧🇷) it is also a tactic used to terrorize poorer countries in global south that are dependent on these exports. 2/n
3. 🇷🇺 is makes money from these actions.
RU remains 1 of the largest global exporters of grain.
RU increased production & signed deals with countries 4 shipments of grain.
RU benefits from blockade sparked price rises.
THERE ARE NO SANCTIONS ON 🇷🇺 ARGICULTURAL SHIPMENTS.
3/n
Read 10 tweets

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