O B Profile picture
Mar 19 7 tweets 3 min read
Seriously... $RIG is a high risk company... high utilization on long legacy contracts producing this:
Adjusted EBITDA was $250 million, compared to $245 million in the prior quarter
vs
the blue bars below:
Night and day vs VAL's Risk vs Reward imo.
When you are done adding together the blue bars and comparing that to the EBITDA their great backlog is giving them.. you can compare it to having more cash than debt and the debt being due 2028
Dividends anytime soon? More likely more new ATM shares issued I would guess.
Seriously, what am I missing here? Is the huge backlog full of contracts that will gradually re-set higher? I mean, they can not have booked a huge backlog with stuff like this? What is the path to a huge improvement?
That A LOT of debt compared to what they manage to earn. I can only repeat... what is good about a huge backlog? Unless someone can present large annual stepups in rates coming years...
"Adjusted EBITDA was $250 million, compared to $245 million in the prior quarter"

Q4 "Interest expense, net of amounts capitalized, was $107 million, compared with $110 million in the prior quarter"
$RIG does not need a current huge backlog.. they need to get out of current contracts and make new ones at much higher levels. This in order to afford interest & amortizations.

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More from @OriginalBraila

Mar 19
Age profile of $RIG
Note that they have included the newbuilds under construction to reach this. Image
Age profile of $VAL ships in the same segment:
Note that little "1". Means they exclude the options they have to take a couple of newbuilds (they are very likely to take that before end 2023). Image
But VAL also have a unique arrangement with the key players in Saudi so they also work with normal & higher spec Jackups. A very profitable JV that I guess we could see spun out eventually to shareholders. Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 19
This is one of my 3 key oil Co holdings: vermilionenergy.com
In oil 1 of the most interesting things now is divestments at low prices from majors like below: Equinor to $VET
Besides the NA export risk, I am really not fond of the "no growth" policy pushed by investors there.
So besides preferring international assets outside of NA I also want companies that are not afraid to grow organically or by merger, preferably before even more inflation invades the space. I am less fond of companies sitting on 20y reserves... never likely to be used.
The fact that most Canadian & US oil investors seem to take the opposite view on most of the above is quite interesting. IMO means they are likely to give away opportunities, scarce resources for expansion and the better valuations that I think will soon be awarded to growth.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 23
What are the reasons to buy $RIG instead of $VAL?
Read 4 tweets
Feb 23
I trade this one a lot but yesterday, despite knowing the flooding & winter effect, I took the position upwards to 4% portfolio weight yesterday. Despite being a ketchup company like no other, the potential is huge while being quite low risk imo.
tasekomines.com/assets/docs/Q4…
I do expect Florence to get its permit soon and I do expect it to work, be the most environmentally friendly "mine" in the world as well as very profitable. The pipeline after that is world class. Some small positive noise about New Prosperity lately imo despite confidentiality.
"The dialogue is not complete but it remains constructive, and the parties have therefore agreed to extend the standstill for a further year so that they and the Province of British Columbia can continue to pursue a long-term and mutually acceptable resolution of the conflict."
Read 4 tweets
Feb 21
This chart makes sense to me. Starting at the cost of a newbuild and the first 6y which are the ECO vessels staying close to linear and then dropping like a stone for 2013 and older. Clearly brokers acknowledge the ECO value closing in on IMO2023 regulations.
(Clarkson) Image
But here is the Clarkson and general broker view on large tankers, it doesn't make sense to me. There is no acknowledge that 0-6y ECO's should stay close to linear depreciation. Quite the opposite. And note that this is not due to new vessels not being able to get profit charters Image
According to $OET, if you start with a NB value of 120musd (their chosen example) and stick to linear for ECO vessels (meaning 2014 and younger) their NAV is above 150 NOK today.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 16
VLCC scrubber saving 9k
Eco saving 15ton x750usd= 11k
In motion 80% (hidden additional advantage is that Eco's will have less standstill)
16k usd daily advantage
Advantage increases in a better market with speed causing higher consumption
Means less bleeding while wait for upturn
This chart is more than VLCCs it is "tankers" but it illustrates the point where we soon have no orderbook and beyond "old tankers savior Iran" faces this every quarter. And this is +20y, that is really scrapping material. Y-day we saw 2 Capes 19y scrap in arguably a good market
The above is a chart showing when and number of tankers that have to do what is a very expensive dry dock. A very natural end date for a +20y tanker if you do not have the Biden trade anymore.
Read 7 tweets

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