1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 24: There has been little change to the overall strategic situation in the past 24 hrs. Russian forces remain static and appear to be transitioning to defensive operations, signaling a change in the character of the war. #UkraineRussianWar
2/ Today’s update will focus on the Kharkiv-Donbas area, providing a brief overview of the three critical areas of Kharkiv, the Donets River, and Mariupol. This is meant to set conditions for a more in-depth study of each AO as the war enters a protracted campaign.
3/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 4.2 million, with over 1.85 million IDPs, mostly in western Ukraine. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted, blocked, or attacked by Russian forces.
4/ Weather assessment. In Donbas region, visibility and wind speed are favorable for VKS and the UAF to execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 10/-5 C, with rain showers latter in the week making river crossings impracticable.
5/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments. There has been no change to the situation in eastern Ukraine over the past 24 hours. Russian forces still face difficulty in overcoming Ukrainian defenses on the Donets River, yet they are not an insurmountable obstacle. #Kharkiv#Mariupol
6/ Kharkiv Area. Russian forces do not possess the material capability, logistical reach, or tactical acumen to assault and seize Kharkiv. The only operationally sound course of action is to contain Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv area with aviation and UAV strikes.
7/ Kharkiv will remain in Ukrainian hands for the foreseeable future. It does not appear the Russians have the desire to conduct a Mariupol-style siege on the city, this is simply beyond the means of the Russian military to do at the present time.
8/ Donets River Line. Russian attacks along the Donets River have failed. Although the Russians can make small-scale tactical assaults and gain some ground, they do not have sufficient combat power to penetrate prepared Ukrainian defenses and push toward Sloviansk.
9/ Events on the Donets River Line will be the clearest indication of Russian success or failure in eastern Ukraine. Even if Mariupol falls Ukrainian forces are still in an advantageous position to maintain the Donbas defense, unless the Russians can penetrate south of the Donets
10/ Siege of Mariupol. The Russian & Separatist assault of Mariupol has been a mix of standard Russian practice toward seizing an urban area and siege tactics learned from operations in Syria targeting the civilian population to coerce surrender. #Mariupol
11/ The fall of Mariupol is an unfortunate inevitability, that is if the Ukrainian military does not mount a serious counteroffensive to relieve the city. The closest Ukrainian forces are 100km away and would require a serious effort with a considerable number of forces.
12/ Aerospace Assessment. In the Donbas, attack aviation may come to play a larger role to reduce VKS fixed-wing losses as well as allow for reallocation of fixed-wing sorties against higher value political targets.
13/ Tomorrow’s update will focus on the Kyiv Area of Operations. I will soon post an in-depth look at the first month of the war, analyzing how the Ukrainian response to the Russian invasion resulted in a strategic victory for Ukraine & why the Russian military has so far failed.
14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
15/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. The mud season will continue to impede maneuver, especially in severely restricted terrain. The weather favors small-scale assault forces. Night operations will continue to be difficult.
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Luhansk OD. Russian forces press their attack in the Kreminna area. Svatove has been reinforced by the 98th GABD, signaling a Russian intent to push toward Kupyansk soon. UKR forces will continue to defend in depth & transition to the offense when opportunities arise. #Luhansk
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-7 FEB 23. The first week of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive move into full swing as major pushes were made in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The Russians made some gains but Ukrainian defenses held. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Luhansk OD. Svatove remains a critical pivot of operations for both sides. Action over the past week did not see major changes to the line of contact north of Novovodyane. To the south the Russians launched a sustained offensive out of Kreminna towards Yampolivka. #Luhansk
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions.
3/ Luhansk OD. This OD remains an important disruption zone for Russian & Ukrainian forces. For the ZSU, the Luhansk OD still presents the best opportunity for victory in the Donbas. Expect continued Ukrainian efforts to liberate Svatove. #Luhansk
1/ UTVD Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in Kharkiv, 10-12 Sep 22. The past 48 hrs continues to see ZSU forces exploiting their breakout from the T2110 Hwy line between Balakliya & Semenivka. The resulting advance has caused the defeat of the SVRF in Kharkiv.
2/ The successful liberation of Kupyansk by ZSU forces on 10 September provided the necessary pivot of operations to turn the weak left flank of OGORF-V and attack to seize the decisive geographic points of Velyki Burluk & Vovchansk on 11 September 2022.
3/ The defeats in Kharkiv & Izyum has forced the Russians to form a defensive line along the Oskil River. The ZSU has achieved a major political objective, the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast. pointhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569243133925367809?s=20&t=dtlIhdkgAeudyYrl2G2Qvw
1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive#UkraineWillWin
2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum.
3/ By taking the time to properly shape the conditions for success, the ZSU has in one-week undone months of VSRF operational progress. As of the timing of this assessment, ZSU forces have already pushed further north into northern Kharkiv Oblast toward Velykyi Burluk.