Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Mar 20 to Mar 26 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
#BA2 wave of #COVID19 cases, with [very high] high/med-low mortality:
Surging/Rising: [FL (R-eff=1.10)]; IT=1.23; FR=1.21/UK=1.19; IRL=1.19;AU=1.13;LUX=1.12;BE=1.11; CH=1.10;
Increasing: DE=1.07;
(Slow) landing: [DK; ICL]; NO; SE;(NL; PT=0.93; SP=0.94).

3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise-increase/plateau in #COVID19 cases with high mortality in Greece (R-eff=1.12); Croat=1.12; CZ=1.09/Rom=1.04; Bulg=0.96; Belarus=0.96;Lith=0.98; Pol=0.97;Bulg=0.96; Slov=0.95; Serbia=0.94;
- Landing in Russia;
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24.

4/9 - Africa -
Plateauing in Tunisia (R-eff=0.99), with low mortality;
Safe everywhere else in #COVID19 contaminations;
Underreporting in many areas.

5/9 - Middle-East
- Cyprus (R-eff=1.18), close to the sub-region, is rising with high mortality;
- Plateauing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with med/low mortality in Jordan=0.99/Israel=0.98;
- Safe elsewhere.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Surging-rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Vietnam (R-eff=1.12); Laos=1.46; Bhutan=1.25, with low mortality;
- Plateauing in Thailand=1.04, medium mort;
- (Slow) landing in (Malaysia=0.90); Brunei.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in [South Korea (R-eff=1.19)]; Australia=1.23, [very high] low mortality (both: 87% 1 dose);
- Peaking in New Zealand=1.01, medium mort;
- [Slow] landing: [Japan=0.92]; Singapore; China=0.84;
- Safe: Taiwan=1.08.

8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.90) is landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, low mort, 86.8% 1 dose. Green in Sask; BC; red (R-eff>0.90) in Ont; ALB; MAN; QC;
- USA=0.88 (76.6%) are landing, high mort. Green in 15 states, red in 21, orange elsewhere.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region shows improvement in its #COVID19 new cases, with high-medium mortality;
Surge/rise in Bolivia (R-eff=1.22)/Cuba=1.10;
[Plateauing] landing in [Uruguay=0.97]; Chile; Argentina; Brazil;
Safe in Colombia; Ecuador; Mexico; Paraguay; Peru.

10/9 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0