Thread by @ganobi

As expected, explained in economic reports for months, the Egyptian pound over a night lost about 12% of its value ($1 USD = 17.5 instead of 15.7). Currency fluctuations, not volatility, are normal. Here's a small thread 🧵🧵about what the gov't and @IMFNews should address.

Lack of transparency is stark + harmful. The gov't doesn't inform its citizens about things even though every economic expert or paper was talking about the anticipated step. Opacity obviously is a defining character of Sisi's authoritarian gov't + it reflects fear & paranoia.

This "simple" example shows that economic, not just political, policies are drawn largely based on the gov't narrow interests, not public interests. And that regime survival is goal number one even if it undermines social & economic lives. The well-known authoritarian paradox.

When I meet colleagues from IFIs I say: Listen. Loans are a burden on generations to come. Egypt's foreign debt is already in unprecedented levels. To truly support Egypt then press for genuine anti-corruption conditions otherwise it might do more harm. foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/03/sis…

IFIs like the @IMFNews need to give up using kids gloves, use its leverage to tie the gov't to clear accountability / anti-corruption benchmarks before pouring more money. Already $20 billion was thrown on Sisi's gov't since Nov 2016 with little improvement of lives.

it's unfortunate that some in the @IMFNews board of directors, @EBRD & @WorldBank, copying leaders of Western gov'ts, have given Sisi's gov't a free pass & squandered opportunities to leverage real change in policies. Here are main areas where IFIs need to seriously step in:

Egypt needs IFIs help (i.e conditions) to address urgent reforms:
1- Taming the military's dominating, harmful role in economy.
2- Pressing for ending the whole crackdown on civil society & upholding the rule of law
3- Institutionalizing anti-corruption.carnegie-mec.org/diwan/86363

When IFIs say "we're not a human rights group" I feel they're just justifying their failures to meet the conditions in the loan agreements. Yes sir/madam, it's your responsibility to talk about rule of law, anti-corruption & "sensitive" military economy. transparency.org/en/press/egypt…

at @HRW & other rights groups we've raised the flag time and again: this road leads no where, @IMFNews & others money meant for economic reforms accumulate as a debit burden while small reforms are quickly reversible because of lack of fundamental pillars. hrw.org/news/2020/11/3…

Update: USD passed already 18 EGP by midday today. It will probably take a few days or a week to see where this will stop. It's vital now that gov't postpone any plans to lift/decrease food subsidies. Ensure that everyone has access to enough nutrition.hrw.org/news/2022/03/2…

And the basic recommendation: since the @IMFNews is in talks with the #Egypt-ian gov't about possible new deal, please also consider staying "closely engaged" with civil society & the business community, not just the "authorities." You need them. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…