"Realists" still fail to understand that for Putin, this war is not about Nato per se but about the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. A successful democratic Ukraine that is connected with the West is unacceptable for him, he wages this war to force Ukraine into submission
https://twitter.com/DrJJanes/status/1505963034971418625
Putin's problem with Nato is that Nato membership puts countries he thinks Russia has the right to control out of his reach -- not that Nato is threatening Russia. That's a propaganda narrative which never fails to fall on fertile ground in the West.
That's why this war will not end if Ukraine declares neutrality and the West tells Russia that Ukraine won't enter Nato. That's not the point of Putin's war.
The point is Ukraine's sovereignty and independence.
Any peace agreement, if it's there to last, will have to find a way to protect Ukraine against Russia in the future -- make Russia respect Ukraine's borders.
This can be done either by Ukraine itself or by others, or by a mix of both.
The problem is that those who could protect Ukraine against Russia don't want to take the risk to enter into conflict with Russia over Ukraine.
In the ongoing negotiations, Ukraine calls for security guarantees namely by the permanent members of the UN security council plus Germany and Turkey.
Given their unwillingness in the past, it seems unlikely that they will agree.
But maybe there can be a temporary arrangement: a window of opportunity during which the West can help Ukraine to build an effective capability to deter Russia in the future.
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