#Equinox is also the moment when the incoming energy balance shifts from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere, and it was marked this year with some extraordinary temperature anomalies in the Arctic and Antarctic. Both caused by atmospheric rivers.
And this year the northern hemisphere #extremeweather season has a Herald, a designated tropical disturbance which the JTWC had thought might become a cyclone. Whilst early this morning a cyclone formation warning was cancelled, the storm appears to not be giving up so easily.
This @zoom_earth animation shows the last six hours of explosive convection which picked up quickly after the storm moved back over the sea in the Bay of Bengal.
If it what Wikipedia is currently calling Deep Depression Bob 2, may yet still become Cyclone Asani, which means "rebellion" in Swahili. [ref. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nort…]
Here are some additional pictures from today of Bob/91b. In the final one you can also see Tropical Cyclone Charlotte which is heading south towards Western Australia.
Here you can see the impact that Charlotte is set to have on Australia and NZ, contributing to significant possibly #extremeweather flooding events in both New South Wales and NZ. This is a PWAT anomaly plot showing a forecast of usually wet pars of the atmosphere.
These 16 day long range model forecasts of PWAT anomaly provide an easy way to identify possible #ExtremeRainfall events at a glance. And at very large scale the physics of atmospheric water appears to be highly predictable (with the exception of cyclones).
Weather like history seems to rhyme at times, and whilst also different, this rain event has some similarities (in terms of causation and timing) to last years devastating NSW floods (see attached thread).
Namely, this finding in November 2021. "We found that the probability of long duration high water vapor transport over Sydney, as in March 2021, may increase by 80%."
One which has proven to be true in February and March 2022.
Now this is an usually clear example we see hear in NSW of Climate Change Now. But it is far from the only one. Increasing cyclone seasons - duration, number of storms and intensity - is obvious now in the Atlantic, West Pacific and South Indian Ocean.
Here we have a16-day PWAT forecast for the North Indian Ocean - which had a dangerous 2021 cyclone season.
We can see what may become Cyclone Asani at the start, followed by intensification of the SEA monsoon, creating conditions which may soon bring rain to India's East Coast.
Water in the atmosphere is a correlate of energy/heat, which is why flooding events were so prolific in the Northern Hemisphere summer - catastrophically so in China and Western Europe in July.
And the Equinox signals the beginning of a sharp rise in Nth Hemisphere energy.
As mentioned earlier, PWAT anomaly model forecast data is a useful way to quickly identify upcoming #extremeweather precipitation events, resulting from unusual concentrations of atmospheric water.
This animation shows a 16 day model forecast for Africa.
There are two interesting concentrations in this forecast, albeit not harmful. The first one shows an monsoon burst to the north over the Western Sahel, and the 2nd at the end shows a lot of moisture over the Eastern Sahel.
This satellite animation shows the Western Sahel today.
In the animation you can also see a lesser anomaly over the Horn of Africa where rains are beginning to build slightly earlier than they did last year. (See also attached thread on this.
Here we see the North Amazon today, a major source of atmospheric water, one of the largest.
The 16 day forecast for South America shows the monsoon strengthening but not significantly yet.
This animation shows the impact of Tropical Depression 91b BoB (Bay of Bengal) 2. on China. The take out for me from this is that a tropical storm need not become a cyclone for it to have a significant impact on weather - in this case in Southern China.
This animation shows the West Pacific tropical belt, which produced several dangerous typhoons last year, most notably Super Typhoon Rai in the Phillipines and Super Typhoon Infa in China.
Here is the West Pacific 16-day PWAT anomaly forecast, which is fairly spectacular and contains significant extreme rain events for Beijing, Korea and Japan.
The wider angle Eurasia plot of this data shows this event along with some downstream consequences of the Saharan water transport event noted earlier.
Moving further east the stormy weather being experienced in the United States looks set to continue unabated.
Atmospheric water traffic jams and rivers in the North Atlantic have been a feature of the winder and they continue to be. The fairly stationary blocking low seen here over New Foundland is not particularly typical though.
The immediate cause of this is two high pressure systems centered over Scandinavia and Poland - which can also be seen a significant atmospheric height anomaly.
Albeit one that is not likely to withstand the impact of the torrent of atmospheric water coming across the Atlantic for long.
As we can see here in the 16 day PWAT anomaly animation for Europe, the calm will not last long. Italy Greece and the Balkans look set to potentially have significant rainfall when an atmospheric river from the Nth Atl. collides with one coming in over the Sahara.
Whilst there is nothing in the model of note here water wise over the Middle East. The PWAT anomaly over Sudan is interesting and unusual, particularly its direction of travel.
This section of the IWVT model data allows us to identify the source of this water - a flow of moisture up the Red Sea which turns west over Sudan and contributes to the build up in atmospheric water seen earlier over the Eastern Sahel.
The North Indian Ocean presumably also has something to do with this. Unfortunately these two dimensional plots do not do a particularly good job of illustrating the complexity of these water flows - which are often simultaneously in multiple directions at different altitudes.
Again the IWVT (integrated water vapour transport) plot resolves the mystery. And the explanation is complex. It will be interesting to see this play out.
Full relevant plot image here....
Finally we return to the West Pacific/SEA/China area which is where we the most significant convective atmospheric water transport activity originates.
But as we can see here, water coming in from the North Indian Ocean and the Atlantic/Amazon via the Sahara is also significant.
Here we see the raw PWAT data and the source of so much of this water, convection over the Pacific Ocean tropical corridor which has moved north and is now moving water westward just north of the Equator.
The return leg of this water in an arc over the Philippines and then north east past China and Japan is (I think) a significant contributor to the stormy weather conditions in North America - these water flows can be seen here in a PWAT anomaly plot of the massive North Pacific.
To end this special northern Hemisphere #Equinox special #ClimateChangeNow thread here are a series of corresponding 16-day accumulated rainfall plots for land masses in the Northern Hemisphere.
THREAD: Some thoughts on October 7th and the importance of their being global transparency over what we know about what really happened on that terrible day.
1/ This (see screenshots in the first few posts in this thread) is one of the most important pieces of conflict related journalism published in recent years.
It relates to the orders given to soldiers on October 7th to fire on any vehicle seeking to return to the Gaza Strip to prevent the taking of hostages and was published on July 7th, 10 months later in Haaretz.
2/ As @IsraeliPM Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to address congress it is vital that the public in the US, Israel and globally is fully aware of what exactly happened on October 7th in Gaza.
3/ The account in this story published by Haaretz is at this time still behind a paywall and it has therefore not been read by the very large number of people who ought to have done so. I have not seen very many reports containing the detail of this report elsewhere though I presume there are many.
OK so clearly #HurricaneBeryl is not the same as #HurricaneHarvey. But there are some striking similarities in terms of what has made it so much more persistent than either forecast or as modeled.
This thread is going to look at this issue a bit more deeply.
- The overall cloud mass of the #HurricaneBeryl thunderstorm complex proved much more resilient than expected once it came over land. Why?
- Also Like #Harvey Beryl did slow down after making landfall and continued to spin over land. Why?
- I think the answer to both questions relates to the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Like Harvey back in 2017, Beryl has been fueled by a constant stream of warm wet atmospheric flows of energy off of the Gulf of Mexico.
- This is obvious in part simply from observing the astonishing expansion of the cloud field after #Beryl made landfall early this morning.
A clue to understanding this can be found in looking at the the astonishing growth progression of #HurricaneBeryl's cloud field over landafter Beryl strengthened and formed itself into a Hurricane in the period after making landfall south of Houston.
Over the course of the rest of the morning you can see in these images how much the wind field expanded.
Like Harvey #Beryl also grew and strengthened itself by feeding off of the gulf of mexico, specifically the area between the Texas coastline and what looks like the outer boundary of the convection field which expanded extremely strongly to the north.
The only source for all this additional atmospheric moisture can be the oceanic convection which took place in what is a fairly clearly bounded 136,000 km2 area of ocean which as you can see in this animation is very closely bound to the rest of the circulation.
This is a much much larger area than the area of active rainfall which settled over the city and metropolis of Houston for the morning and which is finally starting to move off to the north now.
This version of the graphic shows the comparative sizes of the area of water which is responsible for the astonitising growth of post landfall #HurricaneBeryl - and the area of the storm that remained over the ocean and which is almost certainly responsible for both why this storm was so persistent and why it (like Harvey) slowed down after coming ashore.
#HurricaneBerylis not expected to give up lightly as it moves onshore and turns north eastward over Texas and then heads north east across the great planes towards the great lakes.
Typically we expect hurricanes to weaken rapidly over land - especially wind wise. But #Berylis not forecast to behave as normal - probably because like Harvey, its tail over the Gulf is keeping it fueled. - the currently forecast pattern from Fox News's exclusive model shown in these images was present in some of the simulations of Beryl after it crossed the Yucutan a couple of days ago.
To my mind questions ought to be asked about the accuracy of the forecasting for this storm, as - like the last super destructive Texas Hurricane, Harvey in 2017 [] Beryl is proving to be a LOT more destructive in its impacts than initially forecast.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane…
The final image in this sequence of screenshots of Fox Weather Graphics is worth drawing attention to as it shows how much broader the impacts of this hurricane are expected to be as it moves across the great planes roughly speaking heading up the Mississippi river, and continuing to dump potential flooding rain as it goes.
This image shows the forecast expected severe weather threat from the remnants of #HurricaneBeryl in Arkansas and Missouri up as far as Saint Louis.
ALERT: High Target News Environment in play - numerous consequential news events with global implications.
1. British elections - (Thursday July 4th-Friday July 5th): Delivering an unprecedented landslide win to the left's @UKLabour Party + strong showings for the Liberals and Greens . The UK Chancellor @RachelReevesMP will shortly set out her economic policy in a speech.
2. French elections (Sunday July 7th) deliver a remarkable 2nd big win for the left in politics in France - dashing the hopes of Marine le Pen's hard right wing "Rassemblement National" of first parliamentary victory
3. Overnight (7th-8th July): an unprecedented huge Hurricane , #Hurricane Beryl - makes landfall in Houston as a Category 1 Hurricane, its main threat to the epicenter of the global fossil fuel industry will be flooding. It is still night in Houston at present.
Hmmmmmm…. Why is the audio of the @youtube version of the UNSG office daily briefing for 1st July missing sound from 5:24 to 6:07?
Afghanistan, Lebanon, Myanmar & other topics - Daily Press Briefing (1 J... via @YouTube
The content of this portion is available as it is simply a quote from written remarks of UNSG @antonioguterres made to a meeting in Austria. But the missing YouTube audio is unprecedented in my experience and hard to explain.