Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Thanks for this. I’m getting lots of comments from people saying it’s no good criticising the Russian military in hindsight. I agree. Though if I can say, I wrote a piece a month before the invasion saying Russia was too weak and would struggle with complex operations

https://twitter.com/poliitikasse/status/1506630513100005382

And that Ukraine would fight. Article was in @TheCriticMag . Here is a screenshot of what I was arguing.

Here’s a link to the whole article. thecritic.co.uk/the-new-appeas…

And btw, I was also really wrong on Putin. I thought the chance of the invasion imploding was so high he would never take the risk. Didn’t believe he would actually be foolish enough to try it until just a few days before (when he humiliated his advisers publicly).

So I’m wrong as much as I was right.

Basically I’m pretty good at understanding how war will develop, but crap at analysing dictator decision making.

It interesting, maybe because I see war from a systemic view (as developed in my research) I feel I have a grasp of how it can work. However individuals befuddle me as they can be capricious. So maybe don’t listen to me when I say I doubt Putin will use nukes…

But do listen to me when I try to point out important developments in the war. There.