Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

1. A thread (speculative) on what is the most important/least discussed strategic concept of the invasion so far: Ukrainian strategy. What the Ukrainians have done seems systematic, well-planned and very effective. This is an attempt to systematize it as a non Ukrainian.

2. One of the real problems so far is that the pre and post-invasion analysis has been dominated by Russian strategy people, who never bothered to look much at the Ukrainians as a serious force, which is why they expected, w/o evidence, that the Ukrainians would collapse quickly

3. What the Ukrainians have done is seemingly put in place a plan of action that has stymied a much larger war machine and inflicted the kinds of losses on the invaders that is rendering them ineffective. Here is what their plan might be.

4. Ukr started with denying Rus air superiority. This defense plan used some fixed wing aircraft with a range of different anti-air systems to keep Rus from controlling the air and leading to a very large number of Rus aircraft losses. wsj.com/articles/ukrai…

5. Rus can fly over Ukraine and drop bombs, but the Ukr have made it too difficult to maintain constant control, and forced the Rus to fly in a way that makes their attacks much less effective. This has allowed the Ukr to maintain mobility on the land and to use UAVs themselves

6. Having denied Russians air dominance, the Ukr were able to put into place a ground defense plan that has exposed brutal inefficiencies in Russian logistics, training, equipment and morale. To summarise this plan was:

7. Deny Rus easy land mobility by holding all the cities with their road networks and rail hubs. By holding places like Cherniv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mariupol, (see below), Ukr significantly slowed Rus advance from the very start, until it stopped almost entirely.

8. They also forced the Rus army to deploy forces to surround these cities and attrited the Rus army by forcing it to fight in a static environment. Also dared the Rus to come into the cities to fight, which is not great for Rus morale. This is why Ukr will not surrender Mariupol

9. Having denied Rus mobility through the cities, the Ukr seemed to Rus forces advance down certain roads to extend their supply lines and string them out. This is most famously the 40-mile column, but also the attack from Sumy to Kyiv.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1498566328415838208?s=20&t=No2EUpOugQP9Dt5ZxtaPtQ

10. By letting the columns deploy down roads, the Ukr strung them out so that when they finally did blunt the Rus forward movement, the Ukr could start chopping into the supply elements behind using SF, UAV, etc. Here is a good map of this.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1502889703397335045?s=20&t=No2EUpOugQP9Dt5ZxtaPtQ

11. These attacks on columns have led to high truck wastage for the Rus, which has led to serious logistical collapses all up and down there lines. Which is why their army has retreated more than advanced the last week. People just didnt get this earlier. theguardian.com/world/2022/mar…

12. This column strategy has forced the Russians supply system to collapse around Kyiv in places, causing large retreats. Here is the most recent UK MOD update.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1507248134879121408?s=20&t=2mtPtpjiQUKDhg1M1hOGmA

13. This combined Ukr strategy of forcing the Rus outside of cities, attacking their columns and hitting their supplies has also seemed to significantly hit Russian morale while causing major losses that have culminated in unprecedented casualties. businessinsider.com/nato-official-…

14. The effect of all this be seen by Ukr making significant advances in the last few days. Here is a great map of this.

15. So a summary of Ukr strategy could be. 1) deny Russian air supremacy. 2) Hold cities with road network and rail junctions. 3) Force Rus to surround the cities or dare them to advance in. 4) Allow Rus to head down roads to stretch out their columns.

16. 5) once that has happened cut into the rear/middle of the columns to cut supply, damage support, cause chaos. 6) Wait for this to sap Rus morale and effectiveness and then counterattack.

17) looked at in this analytical framework, we are seeing an overall Ukrainian, defensive strategy of the highest order

18) Quick follow up. Some people have asked about NATO aid to Ukr. Undoubtedly that helped--but this is Ukr's show. They have had to devise this strategy and put it into action so effectively (all while NATO is saying Ukr will not be admitted). Its Ukraine that stands out.