Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Building a new thread on this, Ukraine and the long-war and why a peace deal, even a very messy one, would be the best solution even if it gives Putin an off ramp (in other words, be careful before you push for maximalist Ukrainian demands)

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1506521786229403650

As someone who has been very critical of Russian military performance and complimentary of the way the Ukrainians have defended themselves, I do think we need to be careful arguing that Ukraine can somehow easily take on a long war or make extreme demands in a peace treaty.

If a long war will tax Russia tremendously (first thread) it is not easy for Ukraine. The fighting is on Ukrainian soil and the civilians being brutalized are Ukrainian. The fact also remains that Ukraine cannot conquer Russia, so whatever happens, there will have to be a deal.

Certainly if Putin falls, that would be best for reaching a deal--but it would be very rash to base your negotiating strategy on that possibility. Getting rid of dictators is not easy, precisely because they tend to be paranoid, bloodthirsty bastards who protect themselves

So if Ukraine, as it seems to be doing, can cripple the first Russian invasion, that would present an opportunity for a negotiated deal, and those who talk about Ukraine keeping fighting should understand that.

In a thread from a few weeks ago I supported the following deal that did not please everyone, but still I think would be a way forward.

1) Ukraine forgoes NATO membership but the door is opened to EU membership. This provides some important security guarantees going forward, not as much as NATO, but lets see what the EU becomes and Russia will take ages to recover from this

2) A ceasefire and Russian withdrawal to the invasion jump off points. Yes that means that Russian forces stay in Crimea and Donetsk/Luhansk for now.

3) Internationally run plebiscites in Donetsk/Luhansk and Crimea to establish their political allegiance. This will be controversial for many--but is there a better way to handle this that doesnt involve a long, bloody war.

4) Reparations to be paid to Ukraine through a percentage of Russian oil/gas sales being diverted to a Ukrainian rebuilding fund.

Most of these points have actually been trialled by the Ukrainian government at some point--so hopefully people dont jump down my throat for trying to come up with a plan they would never want.

This seems to me to be a way out of this horrible, bloody war. I would take it if it were on the table.

Its worth noting that about equal numbers of people are saying that the Ukrainians would not agree to this or that the Russians would not agree. In that way, maybe it is a middle ground

adding this here. A very well reasoned analysis by @LawDavF outlining the real strengths that Ukraine would have in any peace negotiations and the dilemma that Putin's personal position has placed him in. Worth a read. samf.substack.com/p/losing-wars-…