Thread by @cybersoroka

Putin miscalculated about Ukraine- because he was certain that there’s nothing to calculate.

But he didn’t miscalculate about the west.
🧵👇

It’s been a solid month and we see one thing - Putin doesn’t understand how to “war”. You didn’t think he would have to. Russian typical arrogance played a cruel joke with them; no war recorded by humans has an example where terror strategy would have worked.

So what’s next?

Putin leverages things he knows better than war: manipulation and intimidation.

If there’s one thing he got right about west is that it suffers different degrees of cowardice. No need to be a big KGB brainer:

✔️ losing a lifestyle
✔️ nuclear winter

It might seem as if the fear of nukes is more reasonable them the fear of losing Saturday shoppings.

In reality both fears are absolutely equally irrational.

Whatever you explain your poltroonery with: lifestyle of radioactive blows - Putin got your numbers right.

If you’re afraid that war in Berlin or Paris will mean that your way of living will be disrupted by tanks in your city - you’re doing exactly what Russia wants; you think that the most you have to lose is your security. And it’s buyingboutin valuable time.

Anyone who still believes that this war, perched right on top of post pandemic economic struggle, will not ripple across the globe with its catastrophic consequences - is already coming from the wrong starting point with their reasoning.

Yes, Verden or Toulouse won’t have missiles. For a while at least. But gradually you will start noticing that your social benefits are dwindling, bank issue less credit, shopping won’t be as casual as before.

A cup of coffee will be a noticeable purchase.

Russian missiles is something that one can easily see and fight against.

The painful and irreversible economic decay that you choose today - instead of arming Ukraine to win this war faster - is a worser prospect because you won’t really be able to do anything against it.

Put it in much simpler words: don’t be afraid to lose your comfort because you will lose it anyway.

If you get comfortable with this though and decide to help and fight, nuclear threat is the next red card Putin pulls out to show you.

It seems like nothing is worse than Hiroshima.

Right?

Wrong. Chernobyl was 400 times worse. 👇

The uncomfortable and horrifying truth is that a nuclear warhead will cause less deaths than a power plant accident. And has a much less likelihood of being fired.

Ukraine has 4 nuclear plants, including the largest in Europe. Missiles fly above them ever day.

Putin pulls out the nuclear threat like a thief pulls out a knife. Just a gleam of the that blade paralyzes the west into handing him over anything that he wants.

But brought on the table once - this will be an argument at any time and for any Kremlin official.

My opinion? A nuclear exchange is not going to happen because it fits neither Putin’s plan to restore Russian glory, nor the west’s desire to survive.

One fact remains - the west is driven into a dead end by the scare and Putin milks it like a boss.