Thread by @Osinttechnical

Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing thread for 3/25

"So nothing really significant to talk about with respect to Kyiv. The Russians -- we still hold them no closer than they were the last time we talked. They're in defensive positions. It looks like they have stopped really any interest in terms of ground movement towards Kyiv...

...but obviously air attacks, bombardment and long-range strikes continue to occur."

"they have not made any advances towards the city, either from the north or northwest. To the east of Kyiv, we still hold them about where they were before. We had talked about how the Ukrainians had pushed them further east, and we still estimate that they remain right there."

"...Makariv. We -- it's not a completely clear picture, but -- but we believe that it's at the very least contested, and may now be in Ukrainian control."

"in Chernihiv, we've observed that Russian forces appear to be closest to the north of Chernihiv, but not much... no real progress there. And it does look like we've seen reports that the Ukrainians are making incremental progress in terms of turning back attacks on Chernihiv."

"Swinging on around to Kharkiv, again, no progress by the Russians. They're still attempting to blockade the city. Ukrainian forces are obviously very, very heavily engaged there, and have been able to -- to forestall any additional movement by the Russians near Kharkiv."

"we do believe that the Russians have likely been able to break through the Ukrainian forces along a highway near Izyum and they have actually moved to the southeast of Izyum. It's difficult to say exactly how much -- around 10 kilometers or so to the southeast of Izyum."

"And this gets at what we've been talking about for a while, that we think they're trying to cut off the Donbas area... coming south out of Kharkiv, now south out of Izyum and trying to move to the southeast to really sort of cut off that joint force operation area in the Donbas"

"A Russian Ministry of Defense official said as much today, they are prioritizing the Donbas... they've publicly, now, acknowledged what we talked about the other day, that they are putting their priorities and their effort in the east of Ukraine...

...And that's where still, there remains a lot of heavy fighting, and we think they are trying to not only secure some sort of more substantial gains there as a potential negotiating tactic at the table, but also to cut off Ukrainian forces in the eastern part of the country."

"No real changes in Mariupol. Obviously, vicious -- vicious fighting continues there and -- and still, long-range -- long-range strikes, so lots of heavy fighting there. I don't really have anything new there."

"They [Ukraine] did strike a Russian LST while it was pier-side in Berdyansk, and it appears from the imagery, we've seen that they destroyed that ship. We don't know how many casualties; I don't know how many people were on the ship when it got hit."

"And our assessment is that that ship was there in Berdyansk as a -- on a resupply mission."

"We've seen reports of resistance there in areas that were previously reported to be in Russian control. We can't corroborate exactly who is in control of -- of Kherson, but the point is it doesn't appear to be as solidly in Russian control as it was before...

...The Ukrainians are trying to take Kherson back, and so it's -- we would -- we would argue that -- that Kherson is actually contested territory again."

"On Mykolaiv... we continue to see Ukrainians defend the city. They're focusing on keeping their supply lines open, so no major developments there. Russian forces still appear to be outside the city, about 15 kilometers, again, to the south and southeast."

"In the air, again, no major changes; contested airspace. We do see that the Russians are concentrating their airstrikes to Kyiv, Chernihiv and the joint force operation east, where they said they were going to prioritize it."

"No signs that Odesa is under an imminent threat of an amphibious assault, or frankly, a ground assault. They can't break out of Mykolaiv, and we haven't seen anything noteworthy in terms of naval activity in the -- in the Black Sea."

"No updates with respect to Belarus, no signs or indications that the Belarusians are about to -- planning to -- to go in"

"assessed available combat power, we -- we hold the Russians less than 90 percent, somewhere between 85 and less than 90 percent of their assessed available combat power."

"I will say that we've seen our first indications that they are trying to send in some reinforcements from Georgia. And so we have seen the movement of a number of troops from Georgia. We don't have an exact number. I couldn't tell you whether it's a full BTG or how many troops"

"we do assess that there's heavy fighting in the vicinity of Bucha and Irpin, northwest of Kyiv... we have seen heavy fighting there and the Ukrainians trying hard to dislodge the Russians from Bucha and from Irpin. I don't have more of an update for you on that."

"on Kyiv, what I would say is it appears that the Russians are, at least the moment, not pursuing a ground offensive towards Kyiv. They are digging in, they are establishing defensive positions, they don't show any signs of being willing to move on Kyiv from the ground."

"There is a lot of heavy fighting in the Donbas area... they're trying to take Mariupol and then be able to break off north from there, to do that from the south...

...Now, that's why they're frustrated, and frankly, we think that's of a piece of why they had LSTs dropping off supplies in Berdyansk, to try to reinforce their efforts to take Mariupol."

"So the defensive crouch that they're now taking in Kyiv we think is consistent with their desire now to be more on the offense and to be more aggressive in the east. It's interesting that the bulk of their air activity is really only on Kyiv, Chernihiv...and then the Donbas."

"So again, all of that sort of reinforces this idea that, at least for the moment, they don't appear to want to pursue Kyiv as aggressively, or frankly, at all. They are focused on the Donbas."

"we're seeing the Ukrainians really go now on the offense around Kyiv. That includes to the west of it. So the -- I would just again say the Russians are in a defensive position around Kyiv on the ground."

"the thing they're running the lowest on are cruise missiles, particularly air-launched cruise missiles. But they still have the majority of their inventory available to them. They still have more than 50 percent...

...But that air--launched cruise missiles in particular are the thing that they're the lowest on... we do see signs that they are that their [dwindling stocks] of precision-guided munitions are beginning to be a factor."

In response to a question that was almost certainly about @oryxspioenkop "I don't have an assessment of how many tanks the Ukrainians have captured or even proof that they have. I just don't have that level of detail, so I don't even want to guess at that."

@oryxspioenkop "We think they have experienced failures in some of their missiles, particularly cruise missiles, either failure to actually launch or failure to hit the target... it's hard for us to assess that perfectly, in terms of numbers, but we have seen some failures."

@oryxspioenkop "Clearly, they [Russia] overestimated their ability to take Kyiv, and frankly, they overestimated their ability to take any population center and they clearly underestimated Ukrainian resistance."

@oryxspioenkop "So I think it's safe to assume that they -- that they face some intelligence failures of their own. Whether the -- they're now changing their strategic goals or not, I -- I think, is difficult to say."

@oryxspioenkop "Again, all we can do is tell you what we're seeing and what -- what we talked about two days ago, a prioritization of the Donbas was confirmed by the Russians themselves today, saying that that was what their priority was going to be."

@oryxspioenkop "that would be significant if the Ukrainians were able to take Kherson back. I mean, it is a strategically located city... we talked about its significance on the map there in the south and the opening on the Dnieper River to the Black Sea so it's a significant port city."

@oryxspioenkop "It would also put at much greater risk, the Russian positions around Mykolaiv. And, again, if they have ground desires on Odessa losing Kherson and... being sandwiched between Ukrainian forces in Kherson and then those in Mykolaiv...

@oryxspioenkop ...would make it very, very difficult for them to make any kind of ground movement on Odessa"

@oryxspioenkop "they [Russia] have tried to make up for the fact that they haven't been able to move well on the ground by the increasing use of airstrikes and missile strikes and artillery strikes on population centers... their frustrations are laid bare for the world to see"

@oryxspioenkop "We are continuing to work with other allies and partners who have long range air defense systems that the Ukrainians know how to use, and we're trying to get them there."

@oryxspioenkop "On the $800 million package, yes, another flight arrived in the region today... so we have already a couple initial shipments have been sent to the region. I don't know about whether they've actually been prepared for shipment by ground into Ukraine"

@oryxspioenkop "over the next three days, there'll be an additional three flights. And, again, we're prioritizing on these things. It's the kind of material that -- that we know they're using in the fight every day, got Javelins and Stingers and that kind of things."

@oryxspioenkop [On the prioritization of Donbas] "So on the prioritization, I mean this is a relatively new decision by the Russians. We're just seeing them become much more aggressive in the Donbas area."

On the 85-90% available combat power claim-

really was too long to put into a tweet so I'm putting the full excerpt.

"It's a range, and the ranges I've seen in the press anywhere from 20 to 60 percent. I would not push back on that... it's a range and it varies, you know, nearly from day to day. But we have seen... they have experienced a significant amount of failure in their missiles."

[on generals killed] "Can't confirm the numbers that have been reported out there by either side, except to say... it's not surprising to us to see that there are generals on the battlefield, given the way they man and organize themselves and that they don't delegate very well."

"They don't have -- they do not invest a lot of responsibility in their junior officer corps, and they don't have a non-commissioned officer corps to speak of the way we do, so there's not a lot of battlefield initiative."

"And not to mention, they're suffering -- continue to suffer from significant command-and-control problems that -- both in terms of an individual leader's ability to command his troops in the field, but also the ability of commanders to speak to one another."

Full transcript defense.gov/News/Transcrip…