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Anatoly Karlin (🅉,🅉) Profile picture
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Mar 25 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Sorry to break it to you, but Julia Ioffe makes the rules in your society, not Azov-respecting marginals. 🤷
Like it or not, if you're "dissident right" in the West, you're associated with Putin, a Russian defeat will be seen as the wages of runaway nationalism and you will be more marginalized than you already (people love winners, hate losers; you will be losers by association).
I'm certainly not reading lectures on what opinions any foreigner should or should not have, it's irrelevant anyway at the end of the day (because dissident right has no power), just drawing out some seemingly obvious at least to me consequences.
LOL.
I don't think this is actually true. There'll be some of that, but fundamental rule of politics is people like winners & hate losers, ethics are secondary at best, victory will great increase Russian prestige with corresponding effects on foreign behavior.

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Anatoly Karlin (🅉,🅉) Profile picture
Mar 25
This is the same sort of charade people are engaging with as the earlier "softening" of Russian demands in negotiations. Well what happened to that narrative, Russian rhetoric and demands have sharply increased since then.
Ironically this non-stop triumphalist copium reduces the chance of an *actual* peace deal from very low to zero, since it's not only Ukrainian nationalists who are willing to torpedo any such but also Ukrainian normies under the impression they are winning. So more power to them.
Again, my position from the start was that if Putin is to blink, the vast bulk of the sanctions are not going away (can someone cogently explain why would Western politicians waste huge amounts of political capital on assuaging a loser country??).
Read 4 tweets
Anatoly Karlin (🅉,🅉) Profile picture
Feb 28
Powerful take incoming: The main lesson China actually learns from Russia/Ukraine is to strike the US military bases at Guam and Japan when invading Taiwan FROM THE OUTSET.

Current WW3 hysteria is stupid. But as of today, risks of a Pacific War II have gone up drastically IMO.
There is a wave of social media hysteria driven demands for an NFZ. Despite Biden ruling out intervention in Ukraine, the EU of all entities has decided to play hardball, up to the point of apparently sending fighters and pilots to fight in Ukraine
Currently, China has a choice between limiting the operation to just Taiwan from the outset, but risking failure in the event of a US intervention *should it materialize*; or crippling American assets first, and only then proceeding with the invasion with a higher success chance.
Read 5 tweets
Anatoly Karlin (🅉,🅉) Profile picture
Feb 28
Critical fact about information battlefield is that Russia doesn't want to spread pictures of Ukrainian dead to dampen Ukrainian rage, whereas Ukrainians have an interest in milking every Russian corpse (real; their own in friendly fire; or invented) for all its worth.
There's a logic to this. Ukrainians know they're outmatched, so when the victory propaganda reaches some critical level of incredibility, they will collapse dramatically. Previously objective Western mil-analysts like Kofman support Ukraine & tow this line.
This creates a warped impression of the facts on the ground. But maps tell the story. You cannot accomplish this over 4 days if you're having your columns lighted up every hour.
Read 4 tweets
Anatoly Karlin (🅉,🅉) Profile picture
Feb 24
Czechia bans issuing visas to all Russian citizens and Britain forbids them from keeping >50k GBP in 🇬🇧 banks. What's really funny is that London & Prague might have the world's two most anti-Putin Russian electorates (80%+ vs. in 2020 Constitution vote). rbc.ru/politics/02/07…
So it is the most cosmopolitan and anti-Putin Russian demographics are being punished hardest, as is usual with such sanctions. Not that I am complaining, but it really is very funny.
UK ban on Aeroflot possibly one of the most idiotic sanctions in world history. Does BoJo have access to a world map?
Read 9 tweets
Anatoly Karlin (🅉,🅉) Profile picture
Dec 27, 2021
Egor Prosvirnin (@Empire1721). 1986-2021.

Certainly not an obituary I expected to have to write in 2021. I extend my condolences to his wife @M_Prosvirnina, his family, and his close friends.
Prosvirnin was perhaps the single most important figure in mainstreaming intellectual Russian nationalism & "rehabilitating" the Russian Empire amongst Russian millennials & zoomers in 2010s through the Sputnik & Pogrom journal, with its stellar aesthetics & historical longreads.
The influence of sputnikipogrom.com extended even to the Russian diaspora. It was to him above all others that I owe my transition from "normie" pro-Putin vatnik to Russian nationalism.

In person, he was larger than life. Rolled 10/10 on the Charisma stats. Huge loss.
Read 12 tweets
Anatoly Karlin (🅉,🅉) Profile picture
Oct 16, 2021
For the first time possibly since some random year in the late Middle Ages, Moscow (right) will have lower homicide rate than prestigious London (left) in 2021.

London: 1.4/100k murders in 2020, no change this year.

Moscow: 1.4/100k murders in 2020, down 21% this year to date. ImageImage
This is a drastic improvement not just relative to "The 1990s", but even the late Soviet period. genby.livejournal.com/680949.html

Late 1980s: ~5/100k
1990s: ~25/100k
2010: ~5/100k
2015: ~3/100k
2020: 1.4/100k
2021: Will be ~1.1/100k on current trends Image
Moreover, some part of Moscow's murders will still be of the middle-aged alcoholics knifing each other during vodka binge tradition (if much less than before due to rapid decline in alcoholism), so "the streets" have de facto been safer than London's for quite a while now anyway.
Read 7 tweets

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