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Mar 26 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
12/20 Parking lots didn’t present any challenges, but as the rider I was aware that close maneuvering and people walking around made these areas ripe for small accidents.

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More from @IntrinsicInv

Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Mar 26
1/20 My driver on a recent morning spin around the suburbs of Phoenix was none other than Google’s Waymo self driving taxi service, which has been operating for over a year giving paid rides to the public. This is a thread describing my experience. $GOOGL
2/20 Pick up in a parking lot went smoothly with the car stopping in a safe area and waiting for me to get in.
3/20 Parking lots turned out to be more challenging than you might expect, with people ignoring any rules and wandering in front of the car. But the Waymo handled it all smoothly.
Read 12 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Mar 19
1/25 You can’t predict the economy, but understanding the macro context is critically important for bottom up stock pickers. Whether you like it or not your company specific outlook includes a ton of implicit macro assumptions.

The current macro situation demands your attention.
2/25 A lot of company level forecasts are just a form of trend analysis. Most macro trends are usually long duration and slow moving, so you just need a sense of whether macro drivers are above/below mid cycle and how soon/much they might mean revert.
3/25 In a typical cycle, while there are early, mid, and late cycle companies (those that thrive best at various points), all companies are operating within a relatively homogeneous economic context.
Read 25 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Mar 19
This is a pattern across many aspects of the US economy. Rather than current levels being high, in many cases the real issue is that the levels post GFC were very low. 1/4
This debate isn’t actually new. Whether the New Normal, low growth of the 2010s was a permanent secular trend or a decade long hangover from the Financial Crisis was a live debate prior to COVID. 2/4 intrinsicinvesting.com/2018/08/23/ret…
And you can’t understand the current inflation debate without taking into account the way that the New Normal decade caused radical reductions in what economists believe is the potential economic output of America. 3/4 intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/06/11/inv…
Read 4 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Feb 16
[New post] Pricing Power and Inflation (1/n) intrinsicinvesting.com/2022/02/16/pri…
"Pricing power doesn’t mean raising prices in an inflationary environment. When consumers expect higher prices on their regular purchases, companies with and without durable competitive advantages can raise prices without much concern for losing business." (2/7)
"[True] pricing power is the ability to confidently raise prices at times when your competitors need to have a prayer session before they would consider raising theirs." (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Jan 24
A thread, 1/9: In our just published post, we offer a deep dive into Netflix's recently announced results and guidance. We do not believe that the evidence supports a wholesale reevaluation of the company's growth prospects. intrinsicinvesting.com/2022/01/24/net…
2/9 Q4 results ranked alongside the company's best quarterly subscriber additions, setting aside the massive additions seen in the early days of COVID while the world sheltered in place at home.
3/9 1Q guidance was clearly week. But also represents a level of subscriber additions reported in 3 of the last 16 quarters. The guidance is weak, not catastrophic.
Read 9 tweets
Ensemble Capital Profile picture
Jan 7
We've recently discussed as a team the impact of internal promotions to CEO versus external hires into the role. When is either a positive or negative signal?

Academic research is inconclusive on the subject. (1/n) gsb.stanford.edu/sites/default/…
Our general take is that the more unique the corporate culture - and assuming it is virtuous - the more an internal promotion makes sense.

In this case, outside CEOs are less likely to be accepted by the existing culture and more likely to want to do things their way. (2/n)
In contrast, external hires make the most sense when the culture is bland/destructive, the strategy is broken, or the company is missing a key set of skills.

Ex here is $CMG where Brian Niccol brought in operational and tech expertise after CMG's foodborne illness crisis. (3/n)
Read 4 tweets

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