[New post] Pricing Power and Inflation (1/n) intrinsicinvesting.com/2022/02/16/pri…
"Pricing power doesn’t mean raising prices in an inflationary environment. When consumers expect higher prices on their regular purchases, companies with and without durable competitive advantages can raise prices without much concern for losing business." (2/7)
"[True] pricing power is the ability to confidently raise prices at times when your competitors need to have a prayer session before they would consider raising theirs." (3/7)
"By communicating with its customers that in order to continue its superior service it needs to maintain a spread over cost, $ODFL has grown revenue per shipment at a 5% annualized growth rate while cost per shipment grew 4% over the period." (4/7)
"Historically, this pricing discipline has been rare in the LTL industry. Competitors often used price in response to capacity shortages or oversupply...While ODFL’s competitors may have taken temporary share by dropping prices, the long-term results are miles apart." (5/7)
"As long as our companies continue to deliver superior customer value propositions, we have no concerns about their pricing power or ability to manage through challenging economic times." (6/7)
Today's post is also available in podcast format (7/7) open.spotify.com/episode/17bpvE…

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More from @IntrinsicInv

Jan 24
A thread, 1/9: In our just published post, we offer a deep dive into Netflix's recently announced results and guidance. We do not believe that the evidence supports a wholesale reevaluation of the company's growth prospects. intrinsicinvesting.com/2022/01/24/net…
2/9 Q4 results ranked alongside the company's best quarterly subscriber additions, setting aside the massive additions seen in the early days of COVID while the world sheltered in place at home.
3/9 1Q guidance was clearly week. But also represents a level of subscriber additions reported in 3 of the last 16 quarters. The guidance is weak, not catastrophic.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 7
We've recently discussed as a team the impact of internal promotions to CEO versus external hires into the role. When is either a positive or negative signal?

Academic research is inconclusive on the subject. (1/n) gsb.stanford.edu/sites/default/…
Our general take is that the more unique the corporate culture - and assuming it is virtuous - the more an internal promotion makes sense.

In this case, outside CEOs are less likely to be accepted by the existing culture and more likely to want to do things their way. (2/n)
In contrast, external hires make the most sense when the culture is bland/destructive, the strategy is broken, or the company is missing a key set of skills.

Ex here is $CMG where Brian Niccol brought in operational and tech expertise after CMG's foodborne illness crisis. (3/n)
Read 4 tweets
Jan 6
It's hard to believe we started Intrinsic Investing 5 years ago. Sharing our thoughts on investing has greatly improved our own thinking, forced us to better understand our own ideas and triggered excellent feedback from other investors.

A thread of some of our top posts of 2021
We started the year laying out our portfolio construction/position sizing framework in detail. intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/01/05/pos…
We looked at how business quality, not just paying a low price for a stock, is a form of "margin of safety". intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/01/13/the…
Read 12 tweets
Nov 5, 2021
One of the more challenging aspects of investing in consumer businesses, especially ones that make products that you yourself enjoy, is separating your personal feelings from the investment thesis. Not easy to do.
To be sure, there's value in having an "inside" view, but it can go too far or be misguided, especially if you are not the incremental customer.

There had to be a few die-hard fans of Kodak photographic film who just didn't understand why people were flocking to digital.
Alternatively, those with a strong "outside" view risk being too dismissive of, or not realizing, certain factors that add value.

You might think Starbucks coffee tastes bad, but there are 24.8m Rewards members in the US that disagree and account for 51% of sales.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 28, 2021
At Ensemble we are obsessed with returns on captial/equity. But it is high and *sustainable* returns we care about. We agree with much of this thread’s point that removing too much slack from corporate business models has led to a less resilient corporate sector.
You want management teams to optimize returns on a cross cycle basis, including preparing for unusually negative down cycles, not optimizing for a pro forma world in which disasters never strike.
The management of the optimal level of slack in an organization is a critical issue. Optimal levels of slack are often non-intuitive, as pointed out in this post about wait times at banks and the number of tellers. johndcook.com/blog/2008/10/2…
Read 4 tweets
Oct 11, 2021
Here is our five part growth forecasting series. While the series focused on forecasting growth for faster than average growing businesses, the margin for error is often *less* for slow growth companies. See our prior series on slow growth risk at the end of this thread. 1/x
Growth is to investors what the song of the Sirens was to Odysseus. Yet investors shouldn't just ignore growth potential as traditional value investing often implied. 2/x intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/10/04/for…
But growth forecasting is plagued by systematic, excessive optimism. So investors must find a way to control for this as it is the key reason growth investors underperform. 3/x intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/10/05/for…
Read 10 tweets

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