We've recently discussed as a team the impact of internal promotions to CEO versus external hires into the role. When is either a positive or negative signal?
Our general take is that the more unique the corporate culture - and assuming it is virtuous - the more an internal promotion makes sense.
In this case, outside CEOs are less likely to be accepted by the existing culture and more likely to want to do things their way. (2/n)
In contrast, external hires make the most sense when the culture is bland/destructive, the strategy is broken, or the company is missing a key set of skills.
Ex here is $CMG where Brian Niccol brought in operational and tech expertise after CMG's foodborne illness crisis. (3/n)
How do you think about internal/external CEO appointments? Is each case unique or are there good rules of thumb?
In general, we think that the wrong "sort" of appointment increases uncertainty of outcomes, but doesn't necessarily mean success/failure is inevitable.
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It's hard to believe we started Intrinsic Investing 5 years ago. Sharing our thoughts on investing has greatly improved our own thinking, forced us to better understand our own ideas and triggered excellent feedback from other investors.
One of the more challenging aspects of investing in consumer businesses, especially ones that make products that you yourself enjoy, is separating your personal feelings from the investment thesis. Not easy to do.
To be sure, there's value in having an "inside" view, but it can go too far or be misguided, especially if you are not the incremental customer.
There had to be a few die-hard fans of Kodak photographic film who just didn't understand why people were flocking to digital.
Alternatively, those with a strong "outside" view risk being too dismissive of, or not realizing, certain factors that add value.
You might think Starbucks coffee tastes bad, but there are 24.8m Rewards members in the US that disagree and account for 51% of sales.
At Ensemble we are obsessed with returns on captial/equity. But it is high and *sustainable* returns we care about. We agree with much of this thread’s point that removing too much slack from corporate business models has led to a less resilient corporate sector.
You want management teams to optimize returns on a cross cycle basis, including preparing for unusually negative down cycles, not optimizing for a pro forma world in which disasters never strike.
The management of the optimal level of slack in an organization is a critical issue. Optimal levels of slack are often non-intuitive, as pointed out in this post about wait times at banks and the number of tellers. johndcook.com/blog/2008/10/2…
Here is our five part growth forecasting series. While the series focused on forecasting growth for faster than average growing businesses, the margin for error is often *less* for slow growth companies. See our prior series on slow growth risk at the end of this thread. 1/x
Growth is to investors what the song of the Sirens was to Odysseus. Yet investors shouldn't just ignore growth potential as traditional value investing often implied. 2/x intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/10/04/for…
But growth forecasting is plagued by systematic, excessive optimism. So investors must find a way to control for this as it is the key reason growth investors underperform. 3/x intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/10/05/for…
This dynamic of top talent viewing flexible hybrid work environments as a *requirement* is going to really test some top performing, but old school investment firms. wsj.com/articles/if-yo…
If an analyst is looking for a job, an investment firm that views remote work as a “perk,” requires permission, or has an arbitrary limit, will likely be seen as a firm that is out of touch, doesn’t trust their staff, or is at minimum a slow to adapt organization. Major red flag.
Our guess is there will be a couple year window where top talent incrementally shifts from older established firms to younger, more digitally native, adaptable investment organizations. Then the older firms will capitulate.