Ben Jacobs Profile picture
Mar 27 14 tweets 4 min read
Been looking into the next stage of the #CFC sale. Raine are hoping for close to $4.5bn. That's very high, essentially double the market value of the club. Offers are more likely to be within the $3.5-4bn bracket.
However, shortlisting in this manner and encouraging failed suitors to join other consortiums gives the club leverage to potentially get a higher price. There won't be much between offers, so important to stress #CFC will judge suitors on other criteria, too.
Bidders have two weeks to present their final offers. That's not a lot of time to do due diligence, which again gives the Ricketts family (who did some in 2018) a bit of a head start.
Once the preferred bidder is chosen they could then ask for a period of exclusivity to complete the sale, which would typically allow further due diligence & back and forth.
But Chelsea want (and need) a sale quickly so it's not likely the sale speed once one suitor is chosen will slow significantly. But the reality is takeovers usually take months and #CFC are trying to sell at super-speed.
Once the process is complete, the bid will be presented to the Premier League for the Owners '& Directors' Test. After the 18-month #NUFC saga, I am reticent to call this a 'routine' process... but it is typically quite quick.
It's such an atypical sale, but one thing that could (and should) be made public is where the money from the sale will go. EPL will have the right to confirm it doesn't go to Abramovich. Looks as if UK gov. will ultimately decide where the funds go.
What we do know is funds from the sale will go to victims of the war in Ukraine. But no more specifics have been given to date. UK gov. are expected to make some details public, but the exact specifics/allocation we don't know yet and won't under the suitor/fee is locked in.
From talking to the parties, there are some key differences in approaches.

Boehly is focusing on connecting with the fanbase and modernising the club. He's very 'value' or business-orientated and has always been skeptical of Abramovich's original valuation.
Broughton, Blitzer and Harris have outlined ways to balance Chelsea's books and further 'globalise' the brand.

Latter two have strong experience in fan engagement and partnerships. Their Palace links give them EPL knowledge but also cause all kinds of logistical headaches.
The challenge is whether EPL want to set a precedent where an individual can just dump shares to move to another club. Is that really a 'fit and proper' move, especially if done at such speed. Legally, it may be fine but it doesn't sit right.
Ricketts family will have to shift their pitch and win over the fanbase. But their original focus was on modernising Stamford Bridge.

The capital they'd bring is not in doubt but with the optics of the sale so important it's hard to see them being successful.
The least is known about Pagliuca's bid. A surprise move given he only recently purchased 55% in Atalanta. Like Blitzer and Harris he'd have to address this.
All parties must not only win over #CFC but present to the UK gov. On face of it, Boehly & Broughton are the leading two contenders. Ricketts family do have a strong pitch. But they're so unpopular. To not listen to the fanbase when picking an owner would be damaging to the club.

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More from @JacobsBen

Mar 25
Huge blow for the Ricketts family. The #CFC Supporters' Trust say concerns remain about the consortium's ability to run an "inclusive, successful football club." One part of the sale, from Chelsea's perspective, is optics & that's why the #NoToRicketts hashtag has been powerful.
The Chelsea fanbase should be applauded for making their feelings clearly heard. And the CST has done an excellent job of engaging directly with bidders (especially the Ricketts in this case) to ensure they are part of the process despite having no legal role.
Be interesting to see how the Ricketts family react to this and whether they are intent to win over the fanbase or pull out. No intel on the latter yet but I have asked the question post this statement. My understanding remains they are into to the next stage as it stands.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 13, 2021
A 🧵 of PIF's (KSA-specific... and yes there will be broader, too) strategic goals away from football. Imminent focus and fan interest will naturally be around staffing the football department and the next transfer window, but there are clear brand goals tied in to Vision 2030.
The first commercial task will be to find a front of shirt sponsor. PIF don't want a betting partner long term (sources have always admitted this) & British government could ban foreign gaming firms anyway. More details by end of 2021 on latter.
Saudi is launching a new national airline to rival Emirates & Qatar Airways. This or 'Visit Saudi' messaging are likely. Consortium will respect the Fun88 agreement, but it's very much a Mike Ashley deal they've inherited due to the takeover delay.
Read 16 tweets
Oct 6, 2021
A few extra bits on the #NUFC takeover.

Firstly, to reiterate, piracy has always been the main issue stopping a deal. It's largely why the EPL argue a lack of separation, since then they can tie PIF directly to the KSA State and the KSA State directly to beoutQ.
For 18 months a vocal proportion of #NUFC Twitter have dismissed piracy or failed to link it to the separation argument. But now beIN have their license back & a settlement, the most likely scenario is arbitration doesn't proceed since a takeover can be green-lighted without it.
The reason this may happen in 2-3 weeks (or even sooner) is because direct talks between PIF and the EPL have taken place since early September. These were led by Yasir Al-Rumayyan & Majid Al Qasabi.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 6, 2021
For people asking if EPL soften stance on piracy why it makes arbitration redundant...

Arbitration is on separation. But why do you think EPL argue PIF/KSA State are the same? Because EPL also argue KSA supported theft of their rights via the most advanced pirate network ever.
A lack of separation is a way of EPL directly addressing beoutQ having failed several times to get civil action started in KSA.

So if they're now content (and we don't yet know if they are) with today's progress then the landscape changes.
A large part of this whole saga has always been about piracy. EPL don't want to approve a sale to those they think helped steal their rights.

There are also other reasons why EPL may also want to test KSA State, but none are as personal as beoutQ.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 6, 2021
The Saudi GAC has confirmed the four-and-a-half year ban against beIN Sports will be lifted. beIN and KSA are also in the process of a settlement agreement for damages. This is part of $1bn arbitration case in London initiated by beIN.
KSA government has also pledged to work directly with beIN to shut down any offshoots of beoutQ. It is the first direct engagement between beIN and the KSA government and comes 10 months after the blockade was formally lifted.
beIN's sole objection to the Newcastle United takeover was over beoutQ and their own ban in KSA (their biggest market). The latter was purportedly for commercial breaches dating back to 2016... but clearly a byproduct of the political climate, too.
Read 13 tweets
May 6, 2021
It seems a little counter-productive for Mike Ashley to file an anti-competition law suit with arbitration still ongoing. Arbitration is about a pathway to acquisition. A damages case is a defeatist move from an owner fighting for compensation not a sale.
Key line in anti-competition suit reads, “[Ashley has] lost the immediate sale, or lost likely opportunity of an immediate sale of its shares... to the Consortium.”

This isn’t accurate if arbitration ongoing. & was #NUFC who added most significant delay by challenging Beloff.
Yes, arbitration & anti-competition cases can run concurrently... but if MA wins arbitration and PIF-led consortium assume control then he clearly isn’t going to win the other case so why start it?... unless perhaps there’s been a price drop or new time delay we don’t know about.
Read 10 tweets

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