/2 Gov of AB wants us to believe COVID cases are not so high comparatively, and anyway it's "just" Omicron, the 'mild' one, right? Seems safe enough, esp for those who vaxxed and/or were recently infected (the combination being over 80% of all Albertans) alberta.ca/stats/covid-19…
/3 It's a trick. An optical illusion.
Low prevalence leads to low case numbers.
But so does low testing. AB cut testing to ludicrously low rates. AB has the lowest per capita testing of all the large provinces in Canada, 1/2 the national avg.
/6 Actually, it's already past previous (non-Omicron) peaks and climbing very, very fast.
Just look at the wastewater data. It's one of the only metrics being provided regularly now. covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca
/7 Even so, if COVID were a trivial disease, perhaps it wouldn't matter that "everyone will get it" or that AB won't even do us the courtesy of keeping us informed with timely, fulsome, transparent data.
After all, how many ppl have said "I got Omicron (BA.1) and I am fine."
/8 We REALLY need to stop pretending COVID is not dangerous.
Based upon all of us getting infected just once next year, COVID will kill 10x as many ppl as the flu. It will be the third leading cause of death in Canada.
/10 Even when we survive our "inevitable" COVID infections, we face increased risks of heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, brain damage and all manner of Long-COVID (PASC) symptoms and ailments.
Even with asymptomatic infection for young healthy ppl.
/11 Gov of AB insists testing needs to be strictly limited in order to ... something. Keep our healthcare system running? Ensure timely access for the 0.5% we actually test?
They say most ppl don't need to know if they are C+, just stay home if you are sick.
/12 This is used to justify restricting testing, which leads to alarmingly high test positivity rates. Lack of access to testing precludes most diagnoses, & makes tracing, isolating or getting care for PASC nearly impossible.
/13 Yet AB inexplicably has much better access & surveillance for Influenza. It's now climbing to 1% positivity rate (for flu), compared to 27% + (for COVID).
Remember that deaths for COVID are expected to be OVER 10X WORSE for COVID than the flu.
/14 Considering that COVID testing is throttled down to ~1/12 of peak testing capacity now, it is curious that resources sufficient to surveil influenza w/ such extreme scrutiny are prioritized.
One might suspect we are being manipulated to underestimate COVID for other reasons.
/15 Could the reason relate to
"FREEDOM" ? Or leadership reviews in the UCP?
I wonder. It certainly doesn't relate to science.
Because wave 6 (Omicron BA.2) is going to be even harder to control than previous waves, because it is so infectious.
Demand access to testing. Demand timely, accurate, complete data - incl realistic, cautious messaging. Demand protections that are NOT lockdowns.
Demand good ventilation, CO2 monitors indoors in public, UVGI and good filtration.
/19 Demand social distancing, free top-quality N95 respirators, with almost universal indoor use in public.
Demand airborne infection controls and proper air-gapped isolation in all medical settings to prevent further outbreaks and loss of HCW availability.
/20 Increase vaccine uptake. Socially distance, limit capacity indoors or in high-risk situations.
Insist on institutional/financial supports for sick days, isolation and safe work/study environments.
Ensure the vulnerable are not left behind or at risk.
/21 And (in ADDITION to institutional improvements)
Do what you can personally to be protected. Mask 100% when indoors in public w/ best respirator you can (no 'cheating'). Vax. WFH/stay home when you can. Filter your air. Open a window.
AB has abandoned almost all COVID protections already, and decided to go even further and reduce reporting and transparency, with updates only 1/wk. The justification?
It's time. Our two years is up. We're basically safe enough now.
"We need to be able to hold two realities at the same time – one is that COVID is still a threat to take seriously and the other is that the COVID population risk has been reduced and we can move to seeing COVID as one risk among many."alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…
"COVID population risk has been reduced"
Reduced compared to what precisely? Certainly the population risk is not lower than the risk at earlier times in the pandemic here.
Shall we compare our performance in Wave 5 to previous waves to determine population risk?
#COVIDisAirborne this level of transmissibility will rip through communities and increase to very, very high prevalence. Without major changes in policy/behavior, it could eclipse Wave 5 peak.
Previous infection w/ BA.1 may provide some measure of protection, but not reliably.
2-dose vaccines are better than nothing, but nowhere near adequate protection. Booster protected ~70% for BA.1, and should hopefully be in the same ballpark for BA.2.
(But protection levels from vax and previous infection wane over time. So keep that in mind.)
Cases counted "active" for 14 days if not hospitalized, or 10 days after discharge/follow-up. Excepting long hospitalizations > 4 days (a small % of all cases), new cases (in past 7 days) can be viewed as a percentage of active cases. When new cases are ~50% active cases, Rt=1.
When new cases> 1/2 active cases, exponential growth is occurring. When new cases < 1/2 active cases, Rt < 1 and cases are receding.
Ex. Calgary zone: 1211 new cases of 2172 active. (55%)
That means 961 cases from 8-14 days ago, & 1211 new cases this week. 1211/961 = 1.26
CORRECTED: COVID is NOT MILD for KIDS. Early in the pandemic, kids seemed safer. Not now. Kid COVID Death Rate > Diabetes, 🫁Flu,🔥Fire, Falls,🏊♂️Drowning,☠️Poison,🫀Heart Disease &😰CANCER. It rivals🚗Car &🔫Gun Deaths! You'd use lifevests & kidproof locks, so wear a😷respirator.
Yesterday, I released an incorrect version. I apologize and retract it. Pls replace it w/ this new version. I accidentally included age 18-19 non-COVID deaths before. Now, it is only kids under 18. I'm truly sorry, and hope you will still accept the corrected version. 🙏
Source data is from the US only, and highest COVID death rate (2022) is based upon the same rate all year as it was Jan 1 - Feb 6. Likely (hopefully), this will drop as wave troughs are added to 2022 totals, but nastier variants or reduced protections could keep kid deaths high.
Albertans, did you know that your risk of catching COVID in the *next month* is likely higher than it was for the entire Delta wave? New cases are projected to infect over 3/4 of a million more people by late Feb! Don't lower your shields yet. #ShieldsUp
To be clear, this is not a projection of confirmed cases, faced restricted testing. Some of these cases may be asymptomatic & may not be aware of their condition. Some may end up with Long-COVID after asymptomatic infection. Chart is to end of Jan, 3 mill, in a pop of 4.4 mill.
It is not safe to reopen with transmission so high, hospitals overwhelmed and surveillance all but cancelled. Wear the best mask you can, delay optional interactions if possible a few more weeks. Insist and clean, safe air.