Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 37: Today’s update focuses on each of the Strategic Fronts in the UTW. BLUF, Ukraine has defeated Russian forces along the Kyiv-Chernihiv & Sumy Fronts. East Ukraine is now the focal point of operations. #Ukraine #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar

2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees exceed 5.4 million, with 6.5 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. As Russian forces pull out of NW Kyiv, the brutality of their occupation is more apparent. Russia continues to block aid convoys access to Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1509992795137789955?s=20&t=LvQq-xhP8TUm4EFS53RoXw

3/ Weather assessment. Thunderstorms & wintery mix remain in the forecast & will continue to adversely affect aerospace and ground operations. Poor weather may hamper Ukrainian attempts to disrupt the Russian retreat from Kyiv. Temperatures generally will remain between 17/ 0 C.

4/ Kyiv-Chernihiv Front. Russian forces along the Kyiv-Chernihiv Strategic Front have been defeated. The past 48 hrs. have seen an orderly Russian withdrawal from NW & west Kyiv toward Belarus. The siege of Chernihiv has ended. East Kyiv is also free of Russian troops. #Kyiv

5/ BLUF, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have out fought & out generaled the Russian military. The Ukrainian victory in Kyiv and NE Ukraine will undoubtedly become a case study in urban defense, area defense, and deep operations in an extended battlefield. forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…

6/ Sumy Front. Russian forces along the Sumy Strategic Front have been defeated. Russian forces are abandoning equipment that is not functional to speed up their retreat before follow-on Ukrainian counterattacks are able to isolate retreating Russian formations. #Sumy #Chernihiv

7/ The defeat of Russian forces in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, & Sumy Oblasts illustrates Ukraine’s successful employment of an economized force centered on light infantry, mech & artillery groups, and a mix of UAVs and air strikes to shape an extended battlefield for deep operations.

8/ Kharkiv-Donbas Front. The Russians seek to secure the political objective point of the entire Donetsk & Luhansk Oblast up to their administrative borders. If the Russians can exploit their Izium victory, they may be able to move deep in the rear of UAF positions along the LOC.

9/ Southern Front. Russian attempts to renew operations toward Mykolaiyv have not been successful. Russian focus in on the establishment of a “Kherson People’s Republic” to meet the Kremlin’s endstate for the territorial conquest of southern & eastern Ukraine. #Kherson

10/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS operations over the Donbas continue to increase. Air strikes are not only directed against military targets but are expanding to destroy more civilian infrastructure across the Donbas and interdict aid convoy & humanitarian corridor routes.

11/ MANPADS remain the most common form of air defense in the Donbas. The Ukrainians needs to either redeploy or procure more robust air defense systems capable of providing cover to civilian infrastructure, otherwise VKS air sorties will cause significant losses in the region.

12/ Information War. It is hard not to become overly emotional at the sights of images emerging from the formerly Russian occupied areas of west & NW Kyiv. The willful devastation coupled with stories of murder and rape cannot be ignored.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1509950577341603844?s=20&t=LvQq-xhP8TUm4EFS53RoXw

13/ As hard as it is to look at, and mentally process, these inhuman acts must be documented and reported. Documentation is necessary for the prosecution of war crimes. Reporting is vital to make the case Ukraine needs sustained assistance to win the final victory.

14/ Although the past week has seen a series of Ukrainian victories, they war is far from over. Ukraine is still in a perilous position, although it is winning it could still lose. The fight for the Donbas will be vicious. Russia is staking everything on success here.

15/ Unlike the first month of the war, which saw multiple unfocused and under resourced offensives, the fight for the Donbas will be intensely focused and resourced by Russia. The tactical situation, though not ideal, still favors Russia in the Donbas.

16/ We will likely see more violent crackdowns against Ukrainian civilians resisting Russian occupation. More savage assaults on urban centers, increased use of thermobaric or illegal munitions (i.e., more white phosphorous) and potentially chemical weapons.

17/ Now comes the truly gut-wrenching part of the war, one in which Putin & the Kremlin will use every tool at their disposal to reverse the defeat in Kyiv & NE Ukraine in a ruthless attempt to salvage some notion of “victory”. Now is the time Ukraine needs the West the most.

18/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

19/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.