Share this page!

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Twitter logo
Apr 5 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Technically speaking, CONSPIRACY THEORISTS have their posterior beliefs invariant to their *prior*, regardless of the information provided. They lack a mechanism for updating their knowledge.

In #TheBlackSwan, showed how 2 persons shown exact same information fail to converge.
2) Voila
3) And, when in a group, you will lose more friends by changing your mind (regardless of the strength of evidence) than if you had different opinions to start with. Apostasy is vastly worse than unbelief. Life is path dependent.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @nntaleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Apr 3
FINANCE QUIZ DU JOUR
A call struck at K=120, for t= 66/252 trading days (.26 of a y) has a delta of .04 and a price of .1595 ($15,950 per million) when the underlying S=100. It is dynamically hedged daily at end of every day (total 66 x).
You spend $15,950. What is the max risk?
2) Correction: $1,595 per million notional, was off a decimal.
3) Not pretty. About 18 times premium lost under the nasty path: a grind up to the strike where you keep shorting more stock and losing on the hedge.
\lambda is the vol multiplier; worst is when lambda is about .3 and S ends up at strike, 120. Breakeven is at 1.2 times vol.
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Mar 30
Like many Covidopaths, @GuruAnaerobic has no ability to understand science. Same w/commentator @normonics whose stat/math skills are middle school level.
Effect of Metformin is for 3 MONTHS, max ONE YEAR before conception, not the effect of "decades".

ImageImage
2) Here is the clueless comment Image
3) The point is that assuming Metformin is the culprit, you don't need decades to detect a birth defect since it shows... at birth.
With a not-so-large sample of Metformin users it would have shown immediately under scrutiny. But Vaccines have tons of scrutiny.
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Mar 26
From Pax Romana to Pax Ottomana to Pax NATO (thread):
Antifragile showed scaling mechanisms: city states/small units outperform large nation-states:
Switzerland>>Germany
UAE>>Saudi Arabia
Taiwan, Sing, HK >> China
Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, etc.>> Yugoslavia
Cyprus >>Greece
1/n
Cline @digkabri showed how centralized nation-states were shellacked during the Bronze age collapse, but Phoenician city-states thrived.
Phoencs are blamed by marshmallowsoftscholars s.a. @josephinequinn for not existing because they did not have an administrative unity.
2/n
Small states are weak militarily so that they rapidly become vassals.

The Ottomans were (until the end) unintrusive, just wanted payments. Pax Ottomana: like a mafia don you pay the piso & get order.

Some like Anc. Egypt/Ming China/Czarist Russia were centralizers.
3/n
Read 7 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Mar 3
CRYPTO & SANCTIONS

To simplify, if governments declare that a certain #BTC address is tainted (that is put on a sanction list), any additional transaction flowing from it become tainted as well, as in a polluted chain. #BTC is not fungible.
2) Please stop naively answering with various mixers, as if you rediscovered apple purée & nobody knows about the variety of loops in laundering. And no, Monero is not fit to be a store a value if the act of using it makes the transaction suspicious.

3) Anti-money laundering: largely in monitoring end points of the banking system; you can't deposit $100K in your checking account unless the source is also "inside". This will extend to exchanges.
Now someone can sell you #BTC "inside" ag. monero or cash but amount must be tiny
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Feb 28
Muscles you gain using machines will only help you with ...machines
+ No machines, only free weights.
+ No lifting that's not FULL BODY (Olympic lifts, clean-press, squats, deadlift, farmer's walk). Avoid benchpress.
Rippetoe @SS_strength needs to give Putin a call & yell at him!
2) Benchpress? I hardly know anyone at the gym who benchpresses & doesn't have a shoulder problem. It's not a movement found in nature.
Also squats: very heavy weights cause knee problems UNLESS your form is perfect. Perfection is not of this world. High # of reps solves it.
3) Only problem with weightlifting: unless you compensate (disproportionately) with aerobic exercise you end up looking like Alexeyev & develop arterial stiffening (he died of MI).
My own case: I gained 42lbs from 10y of weighligting (21 muscles/bones, 21 fat), then lost back 25. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Feb 26
HOW TO ANSWER KREMLIN SHILLS

I- Ukraine & Russia are the same people.

Answer 1: Assuming it's true (it's not), do Swiss Germans need to join Germany ? Austrians ? Shd the US invade Canada ?

Answer 2: The argument was used by Imperial Russia to subjugate Poland. & All Slavs.
II- "It's a NATO/EU aggression against Russia".

Answ 1: Ukranians are free to decide. For some reason they prefer democracy & freedom to autocracy.
Polls show a majority want to be part of EU, protected by NATO (now explainable).

Answ 2: How many want to move to Cuba ?
III- You can detect a Kremlin shill (or useful idiot) with the argument that the Ukranian regime is "Nazi" or that the 2014 revolution was a Western "coup".

(You can't both say that Ukranians Nationalists are Nazi racists & Ukr and Russ are same pple).
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @nntaleb has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @nntaleb!

Read all threads by @nntaleb

:(