Thread by @nirav_mainecdc

1/There are some signs that the the levels of #COVID19 in #Maine may be starting to increase.

First, the most recent set of wastewater surveillance results showed uniform increases in viral levels across the state. This is different from the episodic spikes we've seen before.

2/The latest wastewater reports are here:

maine.gov/dhhs/mecdc/inf…

and here:

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

3/Second, hospitalizations have increased. As of this morning, there are 104 people in the hospital in #Maine w/#COVID19. Of them, 30 are in the ICU and 4 are on a ventilator.

These are nowhere near the levels that we saw in mid-Jan '22. But they are a recent increase.

4/At the same time, testing metrics do not show a measurable increase...yet. The PCR positivity rate is 3.6%; PCR testing volume is 297/100K. Both are *better* than they were 2 weeks ago.

The number of #COVID positive tests reported to @MEPublicHealth is steady at 227/day.

5/What's going on? It may be that testing numbers and daily case counts are no longer a leading indicator.

The widespread use of at-home tests may mean that our leading indicators are now wastewater and hospitalizations.

6/Indeed, it could be that an increase in #COVID19 case numbers happens in parallel with an increase hospitalizations as hospitals run confirmatory PCR tests on inpatients.

7/It's too early to tell if these data points are signals or noise. Indeed, with epidemics, it's often only in retrospect that trends are identified and confirmed.

"Life is lived forwards and understood backwards."

8/These trends are consistent with data from other parts of New England, as well as the UK experience.

What can you do?

1. Get your booster shot(s).
2. Have a plan to access therapeutics if you get COVID. Know how to test, how to get evaluated, and where to access meds.