Tiho Brkan Profile picture
Apr 8 8 tweets 3 min read
1/ Alternative investments are becoming ever more popular.

With more sponsors looking to cash in on the trend, an overwhelming amount of deals have an unattractive alignment of interest and a clear principal-agent problem.

One way to fix this...
2/ ... is by making agents (GPs) move closer to principals (LPs).

This requires a meaningful amount of #skininthegame (meaningful commitment as a % of the deal).

Forget industry standards like 0 to 3% commitments, which GPs often quote since it favors them (#confirmationbias).
3/ Our job as LPs (HNWIs & FOs) is to look for anomalies and no-brainer opportunities — not 99% of the cookie-cutter deals.

On Twitter, it seems most GPs are in an #echochamber.

They spend all their time discussing what they prefer, without giving a second thought about LPs.
4/ You cannot blame them, I guess. They are operating from a short-termism perspective.

Times are good and raising capital is like taking candy from a baby.

Nevertheless, there is no point in only offering (constructive) criticism without giving examples of solutions.
5/ As already mentioned, alignments between GPs & LPs work well when GPs become principals, instead of remaining "hungry-fee" agents.

Here are two fantastic private equity funds in Europe, with stellar track records and highly competent management.

Notice the alignment?
6/ GPs on the left are committing £10 million (10% of the fund).

GPs on the right are committing a staggering €120 million (17% of the fund).

Industry-standard GP commitments are 1-2% of the fund, while the fees tend to be ridiculously high.

We always pass on those.
7/ With their actions, these rare GPs are clearly stating that which words can never do:

• we believe in the bets the fund is making
• we want to participate in the upside
• if wrong, we also feel the downside
• we give 100% because a LARGE part of our money is on the line
8/ Summary:

When it comes to indirect opportunities, where you are NOT buying individual stocks or doing your own real estate deals,

You're betting on the jockey, as well as the horse.

Ask yourself if there is a clear alignment between the horse owners and the jockey?

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More from @TihoBrkan

Apr 4
Hedge funds remain net-long the $USD, but collective positioning has not yet reached the historical extreme (circa $16.5B according to the latest COT report).

Since 2008, extended net-short bets have put a floor in the greenback, resulting in powerful short squeeze rallies.
The Euro $EUR has been stuck in a technical consolidation triangle for years!

Essentially, there is indecision by both buyers and sellers at present.

Well-defined support and resistance zones limit directional movements, for now.

Watch for a break in either direction.
Japanese overindebtedness, its manipulated bond market, and its currency are making a lot of news as of late.

There is an important support level for the $USDJPY around these levels.

If it does not hold, a major crisis could be starting. It's worth paying attention!
Read 5 tweets
Apr 2
Brisbane was an Australian residential real estate hot spot in 2021, rising faster than any other capital city.

Various data outlets reached a consensus that median prices rose by 30%, while some hot suburbs managed to grow by 40% on an annualized basis.
Relative to more popular Sydney & Melbourne, prior to this boom (and even prior to Covid) Brisbane appeared to be underpriced to us.

Without pretending we have a crystal ball (like many others), we have been cautiously optimistic.

It is always prudent to review your thinking from some years back.

What were your views? Why did you hold those views?

How did the market play out? Were you profitable on an investment?

What did you get wrong and what blind spots did you miss?

Read 4 tweets
Mar 21
1/ Whenever we are discussing technical signals, remember:

a) we are dealing we probabilities, not certainties

b) using only technical signals instead of a "weight of evidence" approach is not recommended

c) consider picking a few individual quality businesses over indices
2/ First, individual investor sentiment has become very bearish.

Last time we saw such a level of fear was during the first Covid-19 lockdown.
3/ Financial advisors and newsletter editors are now net bearish, too.

Net bearish basically means pessimists outnumber optimists in the stock market right now.

This is quite rare and that's worth considering.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 14
Munger was never the world's greatest timer & his bet on $BABA proves it, again.

But he is allergic to short-termism. His bets will go on even after he passes away.

Short-termism refers to an excessive focus on short-term results at the expense of long-term interests.
Munger's patience and ability to sit tight are characteristics not easily found amongst many active "fast-money" participants.

Ironically, they have already ruled his bet as a mistake only 6 months in. Talk about hyperbolic discounting and short-termism desire for quick cash!
Of course, with hindsight bias, it would have been wise for many great investors to sell their growth bets earlier — irrespective of their location in the US or China.

While Munger & Alexander are down big on $BABA, Coleman is down big on $JD, Li Lu on $FB & Dorsey on $WIX etc.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 7
1/ A quick update on various public securities:

US large caps have shown strong resilience (so far), and US small caps performing even better (late Jan low not breached).

European equities, due to geographical links to Ukraine, are much weaker. $SPY $IWM $IEUR
2/ Commodities go parabolic during wars. This time is no different. We think they will top soon.

Oil @ $140 this morning; Wheat is gapping up by a daily limit; Gold's @ $2,000.

Russia & Ukraine export circa 30% of the global wheat, Russia is a major exporter of oil & gas.
3/ Euro and the Pound have been weakening against the $USD, while the Swiss Franc remains a safe haven.

Interestingly, the Aussie Dollar is gaining (massive short squeeze due to large hedge fund short). Traders probably assume the AU economy will be relatively unaffected.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 19
US residential real estate:

• mortgage rates spiking; market discounting Fed's hikes; could go higher if QT

• oversupply is coming; 1.54m homes under construction (single & multi); most since 1973

• median house prices seem to have peaked already

@PPGMacro charts
We are on record saying that 2021 was probably the worst time to be overly bullish while following the crowd — buying that which was popular:

• tech & growth stocks
• residential real estate
• venture capital

We are also on record for saying that US housing shortages are a false narrative.

We saw only a temporary shortage created by artificial monetary policy.

When the cheap money punch bowl is taken away, demand will collapse and oversupply will remain.

Read 4 tweets

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