Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #skininthegame

Most recents (24)

2021 has been a great year for our #BASON predictions @OraclumIS

Why?

Because in 2021, over a period of 22 weeks, we have made stunningly accurate predictions of the #markets, and made a whopping 107% return from these predictions!

A quick thread 🧵on how we did this 👇
1/ First, how does #BASON work?
We ask people where they & their friends think the markets will end up at the end of each week, while applying network analysis to control for their groupthink bias.

Here’s a video explaining it:
2/ We’ve been running the whole thing as a survey competition where we asked stock market enthusiasts to give their predictions on the weekly movements of Dow, S&P500, BTC, WTI oil price, and the 10Y yield + 4 stocks: $AAPL , $TSLA , $GME , $AMC
Read 17 tweets
Uipath Insider Trades $4.5M In Company Stock finance.yahoo.com/news/uipath-in… via @Yahoo || This seems the reason for today's $PATH drop. Similar #TOST drop last few days (although the #Toast insider selling agreement is a bit convoluted, at least to me :-)
I am thinking a balanced approach for insider (especially founder) selling. On one hand, they should be able to sell some stocks to maintain their lifestyle (this is same for everyone, not same level, I mean the need of cash for lifestyle). At the same time, I think they... /2
should have #skininthegame by owning most of their net-worth in the company stocks. A similar rationale for CEOs who get a lot of company stock options. But the game was usually rigged in the latter scenario because CEOs / companies' stock buyback to pop up stock price. /3
Read 4 tweets
Todo lo que necesitas saber de Insider Trading en 50 Tweets

◾️ Qué es legal y qué no lo es
◾️ Casos reales
◾️ Mejores herramientas para seguir insiders
◾️ Evidencia de resultados
◾️ Alternativas para invertir con insiders
◾️ Mi opinión y algunas recomendaciones

¡Vamos allá!
1. En 2001 ImClone se desplomó cuando se anunció que uno de sus medicamentos no había obtenido la aprobación de la FDA

Meses después la SEC denunció a múltiples empleados y familiares por vender acciones de la empresa justo antes de aquel anuncio

sec.gov/news/press/200…
2. En 2015 un empleado de Amazon compartió los resultados financieros de la empresa con un amigo antes de ser publicados.

Este amigo ganó $115,997 negociando acciones de Amazon gracias a esa información.

La SEC se enteró y también denunció los hechos.

sec.gov/litigation/lit…
Read 51 tweets
Tesis sintetizada de inversión en solo 10 puntos.

¡Hoy hablaremos sobre Monster Beverage ( $MNST )!

Empresa ligera de activos, antifrágil ante la pandemia, con un capital allocation increíble y una de las líderes del mercado de bebidas energéticas a nivel global.

¡Comenzamos!
1) El negocio

Comercializa, vende y distribuye bebidas energéticas y concentrados para bebidas energéticas para múltiples marcas por todo el mundo.

El 90% de ventas de la compañía provienen de sus marcas propias como son Monster, Reign, Burn... entre otras muchas.
2.1) Su alianza con Coca Cola

La empresa no fabrica directamente el producto terminado, sino que subcontrata el proceso de fabricación a embotelladoras y empacadoras externas.

Esto hace que la empresa sea ligera de activos y mucho más rentable.

Por no hablar de su alianza...
Read 18 tweets
Tesis sintetizada de inversión en solo 10 puntos.

¡Hoy hablaremos sobre Constellation Software ( $CSU.TO )!

Para mi, una de las mejores empresas del mundo por tener un CEO que es un fuera de serie y por ser una compañía antifrágil con un gran modelo de negocio.

¡Comenzamos!
1.1) El negocio

Su negocio principal es el de adquirir, administrar y construir negocios de software de mercado vertical (VMS en inglés).

Se centran en empresas que proporcionen soluciones críticas a sus clientes y que abordan necesidades especificas.
1.2) El negocio

Se dedican a adquirir negocios con potencial de crecimiento, a administrarlos de manera correcta y a construirlos para que sean vacas lecheras generadoras de FCF para el grupo.

Este proceso se repite una y otra vez.
Read 29 tweets
Here’s some clarity re #KR1’s share register:

Nominee co’s are set up by major brokers/custodians/etc. to aggregate individual sharehldgs, both large & small...eg in reality, Vidacos does NOT own a 25.5% stake.

And no, #WarrenBuffett does NOT have a direct/indirect hldg in KR1!
This nominee system does NOT absolve individual/inst’l investors of req’t to report major 3%+ stakes & any significant chg in hldgs...which you can track via #KR1 RNS:

investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?sea…

Ideally, KR1 wd also break out these stakes (on a look-through) basis for investors...
And I highlighted major #KR1 stakes in my Nov post:

wexboy.wordpress.com/2020/11/21/kr1…

Largest hldg belongs to KR1 team itself (& Smaller Co Capital)...tht’s 15%+ in KR1’s fully diluted share capital.

That does NOT inc. 80% of their 2020 bonus to be granted in shares...

#skininthegame
Read 15 tweets
La jugada de @GBMplus, Robinhood y otros brokers de limitar las acciones procurando "proteger" a sus usuarios solo puede terminar mal...
#AbroHilo
A ver, primero entendamos que el motivo de esto con #GameStop
y #wallstreetbets es un resentimiento general a los grandes jugadores del sistema por utilizar las reglas a su favor y conveniencia...
También tenemos el hecho de que los fondos están en una situación de Asimetría Negativa: Tienen mucho que perder, los inversores individuales, NO.
MÁS INFO en este #Hilo
Read 16 tweets
A couple of days ago, Skallas wrote that true @nntaleb fans don’t quote his ideas all the time, but instead apply them to everyday life. A childish discussion, but I felt the need to say something about it because the “Taleb obsession” theme recurs often. This is my story. 👇
A few years ago, my father decided to begin manufacturing a liqueur made out of rose petals. In order to realize his idea, he took a couple of loans from the bank and became indebted to his business partners.
He had a good concept, but he failed to anticipate one small thing – that he would pass away. One afternoon while we were sitting at the table, he just died. At 53 years of age, it took only 3 minutes. An aneurism. #BlackSwan
Read 17 tweets
#pensioen Pensioenakkoord is in grote lijnen uitgewerkt. Met de "standaardmethode" kunnen pensioenen worden omgezet in kapitalen. Klaar is kees! Waarom doet de polder nu ineens zo moeilijk?
Vallen de uitkomsten bij nader inzien tegen?
fd.nl/economie-polit… #FD #Pensioenen
Als buitenstaander probeer ik maar wat. De ouderen verwachten dat hun huidige pensioenniveau op peil blijft, dus géén kortingen maar wel een redelijke kans op indexatie. Moet kunnen, is hun verteld, zodra het nieuwe pensioenstelsel er is en die vervelende rekenrente weg is. >>
Maar bij een dekkingsgraad van zeg 90% krijgen ze elk bij overgang van het oude naar nieuwe stelsel een kapitaal van 90% van de waarde van hun pensioenen mee — tenminste, bij gebruik van de standaardmethode, die gebaseerd is op actuele marktwaardering.
Read 10 tweets
End 2020 Portfolio Update:
Performance Me/S&P
YTD: 121.23/16.24%
All Time: 208.19/34.08%

Top 10 (46.5%)
1 $SHOP 6.3%
2 $ZM 5.6%
3 $ETSY 5.6%
4 $TTD 5.6%
5 $TWLO 4.7%
6 $TDOC 4.4%
7 $TGT 4.3%
8 $SQ 4.3%
9 $WORK 2.9%
10 $OKTA 2.8%

Cash: 4.35%
All Holdings: bit.ly/3fRx9JT
Q4 Transactions:
Add
$AAXN, $ADSK, $APPN, $BAC, $DIS, $DOCU, $FSLY, $MA, $NVDA, $OLLI, $PINS, $SLP, $SPCE, $SQ, $TEAM, $TCEHY, $TDOC, $TTD, $ZM
Drip
$AAPL, $BAC, $CTRE, $MA, $MRK, $NTDOY, $NVDA, $SLP, $SBUX, $TGT, $XLNX
Started
$ACUIF, $KHOTF, $KNSL, $U, $YSAC
Exited
$CGC, $LYFT
#SkinInTheGame Update
Total Positions: 62
All holdings and position size in the picture
Read 3 tweets
Back in March, ppl understood that its not current #'s but future trajectory that matters. Last month, infections in US & Europe rose so rapidly that daily deaths projected to double by Nov end. Action is required now, not in another 11 weeks with a new president. ht @ExanteData Image
Better treatment but w 'epidemic momentum' deaths will go past 2000 in wks.
"I expect the US to be reporting over 2000 deaths/day in 3 weeks time. Importantly, this doesn't assume any further increases in circulation & is essentially "baked into" currently reported cases"-@trvrb Image
China in January was in much the same situation as US T'giving. A larger migration of 400 million ppl that would have been a catastrophic superspreading event. But public health prevailed on politicians. Excellent comparative thread by an epidemiologist ⬇️
Read 15 tweets
$UNI #uniswap pool subsidies is a defense from vampire attacks.

The problem with the current subsidy is that it comes at the expense of the $UNI holders. Farm and dump is a problem.

My analysis and suggestions for the current situation.

#skininthegame
👇👇👇
The current subsidy pool choices, Stablecoin - $ETH are fantastic! It serves not only #Uniswap, but provides the deepest liquidity in DeFi.

This pool choice combined with Uniswap's network effect is healthy for the entire ecosystem.
If Uniswap doesn't incentivize Stablecoin - $ETH, then someone else will. It's a competitive environment, compete accordingly.

Incentivizing minor pools turns things extra political and invites quarrelling. I don't think it's a good idea.

Incentivize the most agnostics pool.
Read 7 tweets
With the company's latest earnings report last week, Elon Musk satisfied the requirements for his 4th stock option tranche.

Here's how it all works...

[THREAD]
1/

At the beginning of 2018, Tesla filed a proxy statement, outlining the proposed comp plan for Musk.

He wouldn't receive a salary, options, RSUs, etc. Everything would rely on this comp plan.

Source:
sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
2/

The plan consists of 2 parts:

1) Operational goals (16 of them)
2) Market cap goals (12 of them)

Here are the operational goals:
Read 18 tweets
1. #Lebanon is entering a very dark period with #COVID19, as we expected. The next 2-3 weeks will have more regular daily deaths of 10-20 people. Little can be done to change that. If nothing new happens, the weeks after that will be even worse.
**What is to be done?**
2. National lockdown? Ideal in some ways, but realistically unlikely. Compliance varies heavily, people exhausted by overlapping crises have limited compliance, central authorities have limited enforcement capacity.
Only alternative➡️Green Zone Strategy ...
3. Green-zoning would categorize Regions as Green/Yellow/Red, depending on #COVID19 community spread. Effectively, it means selectively imposing restrictions at sub-national level. Green zones have zero community transmission, life&work w.least restrictions, near-normal...
Read 22 tweets
Educating neighbors Uniswap accounting 101.

Balances are vectors, and K-value is the product. Fees are additive to the vector.

To figure out fees collected is to figure out the proportion of vectors using K2 vs K1.

#Uniswap $UNI #Ethereum $ETH 🔹️
Now onto the more political aspect of crypto: " $UNI is a wOrthl3ss ToK3N. "

Few understand.
All will horde.
The pure form is simple to explain, the working form factors in many moving parts, including repeated deposits and withdrawal constantly interrupting good accounting.

Nothing motivates accurate accounting more than real money on the line.

#skininthegame
Read 4 tweets
1/ Thread on the US technology sector. $QQQ $XLK

Every man & his dog know tech is outperforming other sectors, the market cap of several tech companies has exceeded the GDP of many countries & the retail investors are jumping on the easy money bandwagon.

So, is tech a bubble?
2/ The short answer: I don't know.

The long answer?

Let us have a look at charts, data points & trends to decide whether the Tech sector — at this moment in time — is a good long term investment opportunity based on the "weight of evidence approach."
3/ Before I start, it is worth noting that we aren't expert growth investor, nor married to this narrative alone.

So while we lack expertise & god-given status, we allocate capital to many different sectors (for diversification) based on a bit of common sense & objectivity.
Read 23 tweets
almost finished writing my script for the next @nonserviammedia (will have it recorded by wednesday, promise!) and leftists should read way more lit on military theory
probably one of the weirdest parts of post-post-modernism in a WEIRD country is that we've had the potential for massive reorganization of society using computers but it hasn't happened

this kinda gets brushed aside bc most people interact with industrial era institutions...
... most people experience decentralized autonomous through culture first and foremost and not at work or school b/c social media is the only freedom they have

if you aren't in a job that prizes autonomy u probs have a networked social life and a hierarchical work/school life
Read 6 tweets
Tesis sintetizada de inversión en solo 10 puntos.

¡Hoy hablaremos de Facebook ( )!

Empresa que posee las redes sociales con mayor número de usuarios del mundo y una de las líderes mundiales en el mundo de la publicidad online.

¡Comenzamos! Image
1) Su valor de marca ha caído con respecto al año pasado pero aún así sigue teniendo una de las 10 marcas más valiosas del mundo.

Actualmente su valor es aproximadamente de 147.190 millones de dólares.

Puro intangible al que habría que sumar el de Instagram y Whatsapp.

Image
2) Es la líder mundial en el mundo de las redes sociales.

No tiene rival cercano y eso se debe a sus redes conocidas a nivel global:

-Facebook (2449 millones de usuarios activos mensualmente)
-Messenger (1300 millones)
-Instagram (1600 millones)
-Whatsapp (1000 millones)

Image
Read 13 tweets
Hoy analizaremos una de las empresas cotizadas con mayor crecimiento de toda América Latina.

Me la habéis pedido muchísimos de vosotros y aquí tenéis un resumen de cuales son sus puntos más importantes como futura inversión.

Hoy hablaremos de MercadoLibre ( $MELI )

Comenzamos!
Es la empresa de comercio online más grande de América Latina tanto en usuarios únicos como en visitas.

Está presente en 18 países:

-Argentina
-Brasil
-Bolivia
-Chile
-Colombia
-Costa Rica
-Ecuador
-México
-Perú
-Uruguay

Entre otros muchos...

$MELI
La plataforma de MercadoLibre esta diseñada para proporcionar a los usuarios una cartera completa de servicios para facilitar las transacciones online en un mercado donde las posibilidades son enormes.

Mercado potencial de más de 644 millones de personas.

$MELI
Read 30 tweets
@berationable @TinFoilAwards Lots of people are against the *mandatory* vaccines and have their lives as #evidence of harm from how modern vaccines are manufactured (not from vaccines in principle).

Court decision protecting the manufacturers :

What would say that is #evidence of ?
@berationable @TinFoilAwards And in terms of vaccine harm, have you actually reviewed #evidence provided ?



What is your assessment on that?
@berationable @TinFoilAwards The 2 tweets above are about risks only.
Decision making is another thing.
Running a family is an expensive and risky business.

Even if a risk has low probability, if costs are unaffordable then a parent will not take them.

Are you running a family?

#tailrisk #skininthegame
Read 3 tweets
Oh my, @theheartorg and @Medscape are crushing it with not one but two great columns on the limits of testing for #covid19 --This is important on many levels, not just for the virus but also for literacy of medical testing.
Very Brief Thread -- I am excited
In the first column, my friend @anish_koka a doc w #SkinInTheGame writes on why we can't test ourselves out of the #COVID19 crisis. medscape.com/viewarticle/92…
He debunks the Hammer/Dance figures with help from @AndrewFoy82 who does an actual correlation line --
There is more than in this column than just debunking of analyses in which one circles the dots that fit their narrative. Take a look -- Now to the second column.
Read 6 tweets
Evrim Ağacı gibi genelde yakın olduğum yerlerin, karantina konusunda çok yanlı olduklarını düşünüyorum. Eleştiriler:

1/6 Herkese virüs bulaşırsa "24 milyon ölür" denmiş.

Ama kimse "aynı anda her yerde her şeyi açalım" demiyor. Tüm dünya için tek bir doğru politika olabilir mi?
2/6 Bu arada o 24 milyonun bir kısmı zaten ölecek, çünkü yaşlılar/kronik hastalar.

"0.05 x 7.8 milyar" gibi basit işlemler yerine, önce farklı yaş ve risk gruplarına göre yaşam beklentisi hesaplanmalı, sonra da bu baz alınarak, virüs yüzünden "KAYBEDİLECEK YIL" hesabı yapılmalı.
3/6 "İsveç, daha şimdiden komşularından çok daha fazla sayıda ölümle yüzleşmiştir"

Daha şimdiden? Zaten tüm amaçları "şimdiden" olması.

Farklı politika uygulayan ülkelerin BUGÜNKÜ ölümlerini karşılaştırmak manasız. (Sağlık sistemi kapasitesi aşılmıyorsa)

Peki ya aşı gelecekse?
Read 7 tweets
1/ It is strange being an epidemiologist, liberal, scientist who feels like we are making mistakes with absolutism of shutdowns. (and being lumped with antivaxxers, Trump etc. by my own people)
Many people out of work→ anxiety & depression & social discord →
@VPrasadMDMPH
2/ →alcohol & risk behaviors, no healthcare, kids no school (no internet)=key #socialdeterminants of health.
Those w/ no #skininthegame seem to ignore and say it is about going out
We are talking about people dying—with any decision—so have the conversation honestly
@drjohnm
3/ what do we need?
Minimize harms of #SocialDistancing to work & wellbeing
build #resilient society with universal basics
-internet
-healthcare
-fast $ payments when blocked from working
Pop studies of #COVID epi to know where it is before hospital testing identifies
(in 2021?)
Read 3 tweets
Hetkonen, tämähän alkaa jälleen kuullostaa 'laumaimmuniteetin' perään haikailulta. Onko rajoitusten purkamisen idea siis kiihdyttää viruksen leviämistä? Tällaista mielikuvaa en saanut pääministerimme puheista eilen. 1/
Vaikka alle 60v kuolleisuus on ollut alhaista Ruotsissa, on silti nuoria perusterveitäkin päätynyt tehohoitoon. Minkä etiikan mukaan olisi OK tehdä päätös, että esim alle 60v perusterveet pitäisi altistaa tällaiselle riskille? Kuva viikon 15 @Folkhalsomynd viikkoraportista.2/ Image
Vastaan jälleen tällaiseen ehdotukseen kärjistäen, että mikäli lääkäri Järvinen on sitä mieltä, että koronaviruksen hallittu levittäminen olisi hyvä juttu, miksi hän ei aloita itsellään? Huomaatteko ongelman tässä? #skininthegame 3/3
Read 3 tweets

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