Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #skininthegame

Most recents (24)

Aside from the pathetic modeling behind the "herd immunity": it is morally repulsive.

Civilization RESIDES in the enforcement of intergenerational golden (actuallly, silver rules): don't treat your parents the way you don't want them to treat you!

From #SkinInTheGame #Incerto
2) I meant don't treat your parents the way you don't want *your children* to treat you!

Actually the "triage" (sacrificing the old) is a new European thing introduced in Italy; Roman society worshiped & protected the elders. Same with Eastern societies. (Senatus=Sheikh=elder).
3)Other fallacy is by the *tradeoff idiots* who don't get:
a) even if governments did nothing, airplanes & restaurants would be bust by now as # pple are doing bottom-up quarantines
b)hospitals would be overwhelmed
c)millions of young sick (many w/permanent damage)
d)+uncertainty
Read 3 tweets
2) Zoom capped us at 100. Sorry. Anyone know how to let more in? HK, Norway, Belgium, Bolivia, Argentina ....
3) says it all
Read 16 tweets
Private debt markets — especially those we focus around, namely real estate debt — tend to seize up during volatility periods associated with stock market panics.

Unless there is an important reason for real estate owners to refinance in that given moment of volatility...
...you tend to see most asset owners hold back from the market place and pass on doing any activity for the time being.

This shrinks the volume of private debt markets dramatically, something we are about to see in the coming months for the space we focus on.
Will the real estate private debt markets go through the kind of forced selling that we saw in the 2008 & 09 period?

It's hard to say. I don't like using a crystal ball.

However, it is quite apparent to us that, for the most part, real estate leverage has been a lot lower...
Read 20 tweets
1/ We are opening doors to a limited amount of partners — HNW individuals, family offices & accredited investors.

If you’d like to find out how to co-invest alongside our family office & benefit from our deal-flow pipeline, get in touch by visiting TheAtlasInvestor.com.
2/ Our investment philosophy:

As central banks keep interest rates artificially low, the future expected returns of stocks & bonds look to disappoint after a long bull market.

It has become increasingly important to diversify your capital with alternative opportunities.
3/ To date, direct investing was accessible to only the wealthiest individuals who had private relationships and could meet the large investment ticket sizes (amounts).

That is not the case anymore.

The alternative asset sector has become more accessible.
Read 8 tweets
1/ SPX e IBOV: Contra fatos não há mais nenhum argumento! Índices caindo em linha reta!!! E perderam hoje os alvos de FIBO de 100%, onde o mais esperado seria pelo menos um pullback até alguma retração ou mesmo na cabeça do pivot de baixa ou o espelhamento q deram início à essas
2/ projeções de baixa! E nem as poderosas MMA200 conseguiram segurar, ou neste caso, animar os compradores à uma aposta! Bem, agora que esses alvos foram perdidos dramaticamente na hora final dos pregões, os novos alvos são em 100.000 pts para IBOV e 2.920 para SPX! E, de novo,
3/ o mais esperado pela AT p/ amanhã seria um repique pequeno, ou um pullback até os alvos anteriores perdidos (linhas pontilhadas amarelas) em 104.600 e 3.030. Mas depois de hoje, nem nisso podemos ter muita esperança, para apostar nessa possibilidade. Enfim, os 100.000 pontos é
Read 26 tweets
1/ Eu gosto de carnes vermelhas ao ponto! Mas hoje fiz questão de comer mal-passada, com muito SANGUE!!!
Estou puto?! Sim, estou! Simplesmente quase toda a “Faria Lima”(ou seus representantes) cagando para as FINANÇAS COMPORTAMENTAIS e vindo com frases “Buffettianas” para os seus
2/ cotistas, diante do provável cenário de BEAR MARKET que se avizinha. Eu tenho certeza disso?! Claro que não! Já errei o timing uma vez, qdo o SPX atingiu seu primeiro alvo de FIBO no Mensal, e que só não vingou porque o borra-botas do Jerome Powell parou de subir os
3/ juros diante do derretimento de -19,75% no 4TRI/2018, e deu um cavalo-de-pau em Jan/2019, voltando a cortar juros. E depois dessa, estou vacinado (ops, que trocadilho infame!), pq sei que esses debilóides podem fazer o diabo para segurar o Mercado! Afinal, para o FED, “o que é
Read 10 tweets
Blogs, podcast, webs, perfiles, youtubers... En las #RRSS abunda la piedra filosofal de la #rentabilidad. Pero este mundo es complicado y eso no es lo que yo he aprendido estos años. Son ideas de mi #experiencia que no van a ningún lado ¿Me acompañan? Va HILO👇👇#Iparfilms (1/13)
"Cualquiera puede ser un ´héroe" y el mejor #trader del Universo pero, ojo cuidao; lo que Natura no da Salamanca no presta. Así que antes de hacer experimentos, fórmese, lea, investigue y aprenda continuamente. #formacion #Batman (2/13)
Existe una diferencia abismal entre gestionar su dinero o el de otros. Yo gestiono el mío. #SkinInTheGame (chupito!) Y mis errores son míos. Para gestionar una #cartera hay que hacer algo tan sencillo como complicado, cometer los menos errores posibles. #Munger dixit. (3/13)
Read 13 tweets
I can understand pple blaming me for not being in Lebanon during these difficult times...
...except that I am in Lebanon.

Indeed we should blame the diaspora pundits for lecturing & bullshitting w/o coming to show their face #skininthegame. I've been coming back every 3-4 w.
2) It is just that I am not interested in TV crap/conferences to minimize noise. Nor am I interested in selfies with rioters.

#Lebanon
#لبنان__ينتفض
3) One TV intervention per decade, so far. My summary and solutions are here, with the TV lecture at USJ. I explained and introduced the notion of "Ponzi" & the train left the station.

My summary is here
Read 3 tweets
@JurchisRazvan @paulportesi Stable regularities in those activities? Not at all, on the contrary a lot of heterogeneity.

Feedback, well you have different time scales feedback. Yes you have an immediate feedback but then you have longer...i.e. do you take a single rope or twin ropes for a climb?
@JurchisRazvan @paulportesi You may find what the repercussions of your choice will imply in hours or days after making it. But if you climb a lot you do develop the intuition if when one option is better that the other. I think the real important think for develop intuition in that the activity force or
@JurchisRazvan @paulportesi Implies having #skininthegame.

In my perspective this activities tend to require that because you have: incomplete information in the input parameters, uncertainty about payoffs, limited time, limited resources ... And ofcourse feedback.. real consecuences.
Read 8 tweets
Basically the indirect, proxy wars between the US & Iran were both offensive to the victims (Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc.) & allowed this indirect hostility to carry on for 4 decades!

By threatening to directly hit Iran, Trump, forbetterorworse, is making it simple: war or peace
2) I believe in FULL noninterventionism. But if two countries or regimes want to fuck with one another, they must do so directly and without involving bystanders.

#Localism
3) PROXY WARS: For instance you cannot believe how sick & tired the Lebanese are of Iran wanting to use Lebanon to fight Israel; why the fuck don't they fight directly w/o putting the #skininthegame of other countries' innocent civilians and NOT one's own?
That was 2 weeks ago
Read 5 tweets
Although activist @mona_fawaz has tried to dump on me (& got ran over),I MUST fight for her against the smear campaign by fascist propagandists that she's a "foreign agent"
#localists want to run their own lives,
not be trapped into US-Iran-Israel-SA globalism
#Skininthegame
@mona_fawaz #Localism implies opposition to US interventionism in world affairs (Syrian "rebels", Saudi Barbaria-Yemen, etc.) It does not mean supporting interventionism by OTHER regimes.

Most shills & low-intellect propagandists promote false dichotomies:"if not green, it must be pink".
Sorry, error: I carelessly mistook @mona_harb_ (who tried -and failed— to dump on me) for @mona_fawaz.
Read 3 tweets
LEBANESE DIASPORA
Stop bullshitting from distance. Take a few days off, show up, express your solidarity, help the economy by spending offshore $$, chat with people in the crowd, insult a few anti-#localists, and come back.

#SkinInTheGame
LEBANESE DIASPORA
Buy Lebanese products. They need your dollars.
Find a store near you.
I solved the quandary: I drink only American wine for Thanksgiving. Yet I want something Lebanese. Compromise: American wine made by Diaspora Lebanese.
Read 3 tweets
1. Será que quanto mais #SkinInTheGame melhor?

Você visita 3 gestores de ações.

Os 3 são igualmente competentes, estão neste mercado há muito tempo; têm equipes parrudas, experientes, trabalhando juntos há muito tempo também.
2. O estilo de gestão é similar, o passivo está bem diversificado e a performance é irritantemente parecida.

Há, entretanto, uma única questão que dissonante entre eles:
3.
Gestor A tem 99% do patrimonio pessoal investido no próprio fundo
Gestor B tem 90%
Gestor C tem 80%

Você só pode escolher um. Qual deles você escolhe?

Naturalmente, você escolheria o de 99 por cento, certo? Afinal, é o cara mais comprado no que faz.
Read 13 tweets
This whole Neo Hinduism hocus pocus is what I call a classical category error. The problem with all these problems stems from trying to fit Indic Darshanas into the Abrahamic paradigm. Another reason why I don't call myself an atheist. It is a category error.
The natural evolution of Darshanas in India & their interaction over the centuries is very different from the evolution of Abrahamic faiths. But the global academic orthodoxy uses their terminologies. We have to explain our Darshanas using our terms & only one lens (evolutionary)
The moment you unclutter your mind with this epistemic problem you see things clearly. It's just creating a switch in your brain. When you discuss Abrahamic religions you use their methods and when you use your Darshanas you use your terms.
Read 10 tweets
1. DESIGUALDADE VS DESIGUALDADE

O livro "Arriscando a própria pele" do Nassim Taleb é uma obra de arte. Fica muito claro como #skininthegame funciona, e pq certos tipos de gente odeiam esse conceito. Recomendo todos a ler com calma. O capítulo 7, em específico é excepcional.
2. Transcrevo algumas partes, para se pensar:

Há desigualdades e desigualdades.

A primeira é a desigualdade que as pessoas toleram, por exemplo, o entendimento de um indivíduo comparado ao de pessoas consideradas heróis - digamos, Einstein, Michelangelo...
3. ... ou o recluso matemático Grisha Perelman. Não é difícil reconhecer a superioridade deles. Isso se aplica a empresários, artistas, soldados, heróis, Bob Dylan, Sócrates, o atual chef-celebridade local, algum imperador romano de boa reputação, a exemplo de Marco Aurélio;
Read 37 tweets
@BretWeinstein @David_S_Wilson Caro Bret,
This explanatorizing is mired in 1960s Mickey-Mouse verbalisms devised by British (possibly drunk) naive statisticomaniacs.

Because of scaling, arguments for the survival of individual(s)≠survival of groups. So you need to explain groups qua groups.

@yaneerbaryam
@BretWeinstein @David_S_Wilson @yaneerbaryam In other words:
+ Studying the psychology of individuals will never allow you to understand that of the market (determined by extremes, not sum).
+ Rationality for indiv. does not translate into "rationality" for group.
Saying it the way it is:

Evolutionary biologists are dumb.
Read 4 tweets
1. Manual do "expert" de mercado perdedor:

- Não se exponha no mercado, assim fica a dúvida se vc é bom, e ñ terão certeza de q vc é na prática ruim. Ñ tenha #skininthegame;

- Repita sempre q no o bull market todo idiota ganha dinheiro;
2.

- No bear market diga q estava na cara q iria cair, q havia muita gente despreparada no mercado;

- Seja irônico, escroto, fale difícil e mande as pessoas pararem de passar vergonha qdo falam c/ uma espécie tão superior qto vc;
3.

- Cite milhões de livros e bibliografias, mas nunca revele uma única nota de corretagem, senão vc enterra a sua reputação;

- Tire sarro daquilo q vc gostaria de ser, se preocupe mais com o formalismo e títulos, do q c/ o resultado;

- Na falta de argumentos, mande estudar.
Read 3 tweets
1/ Skin in the game?

Financial industry talks their head off about stocks, bonds, gold, small caps tech, growth stocks...

...but after you ask them what’s their biggest net worth allocation, 99% of them tell you it’s their house & private business selling you research.
2/ They all claim they eat their own cooking but really... their portfolio looks like this:

60-70% real estate (home) which isn’t even producing cashflow because they live there

20-30% private equity (partner / owner of a small business)

0-10% index funds, cash, etc
3/ So where is the skin in the game? Where is your risk? If you’re so sure about the stock market doing well next few years, or to the contrary, emerging markets collapsing — why don’t you sell your house and bet on it?

After all, you’re selling me your ideas.
Read 10 tweets
1/ Recent threads I've written all of which contain bits & pieces on general investing, real estate, short term trading, investor psychology, risk management, asset allocation, personal finance & general steps to wealth accumulation.
2/ Psychology of investing, the mindset necessary to become successful in this game and all the common traps & biases investors face.

3/ The four key pillars necessary to become a consistently profitable day trader and outperform the index in any market environment.

Read 12 tweets
"..the art of adventuring is not dying"

“Climbing is all about freedom, the freedom to go beyond all the rules and take a chance, to experience something new, to gain insight into human nature… For me, imagination is more important in climbing than muscle or daredevil antics.”
#skininthegame

"... anventuring... only if you are on your own, you carry all your responsabilities.."

"..sport is not adventure"

“Adventure has to do with private, personal experiences,”
Adventure implies difficult, dangerous (nature is dangerous) and the most important thing is exposure, you most very far away of any possibility in case of emergency... then you will live as humans beings i million years ago...
Read 4 tweets
And year after year the rich are different. #ergodocity
Anyone who does not distinguish between wealth generation via risk taking and rent-seeking will be blocked here. CEOs are rent seekers --so are B-School types. Innovators and entrepreneurs are risk-takers. Small business owners are risk-takers.
We need risk takers.
#Skininthegame
Practically, any CEO who "rose through the ranks" is competent at being an actor. No exception.

Entrepreneur or nothing.
Read 4 tweets
The press is gloating over the fact that Trump lost more than a billion in 80-90s.
IYIs don't get that it is what got him elected: losing money (your own, not others) makes you real, unlike some lifeless hack.
Life is risk taking. (Passage from #SkininTheGame)
There are many areas to focus on if you are after Trump: mainly the relationship with Saudi Barbaria and the fact that he bans Iranians not Saudis from coming here when it is the Saudis who are the terrorists.
Not his losses.
Shaming an entrepreneur for losing money is like shaming a veteran for losing a hand.

The acroparasites in the press are insulting the entrepeneurs the risk takers that are paying for their daily bread!
Read 4 tweets
RENT SEEKERS
We need to make pple aware that discontent related to inequality is mainly discontent about rent seeking and rent seekers.

Prevent rent seekers from exploiting this discontent by making it look like society need more IYIs like them to solve it.

#GiletJaunes
The problem isn't inequality, it's RENT SEEKERS without skin in the game.
medium.com/incerto/inequa…
3) Easy to deconvert someone from State worship via Martin Luther's argument that "God & clergy are different "tings"". Show them that bureaucrats-cronies-nudgeboys-virtue merchants & "State" aren't the same "ting" & "the State is among us".
Keep the State distributed!
#Localism
Read 7 tweets
1. "The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding, or better at explaining than doing."
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

É ou não é assim mesmo na maioria das vezes que lemos algum especialista opinando?
2. "You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on peer assessment."
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Há uma atividade profissional q se não tiver peer validation, não existe. Sem os colegas darem ok, nada feito. Isso é liberdade?
3. "If you do not take risks for your opinion, you are nothing."
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Essa é clássica. Talk is cheap.
Read 7 tweets

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