Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #skininthegame

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1. Sabe pq o Mantega ficou 8 anos no governo e um gestor de recursos q vai mal em bem menos tempo do q isso roda, sai do jogo ou é demitido? Pq o 1o não tem #skininthegame, e o 2o tem. Precisa explicar ou provar isso pra entender?
2. Sabe pq o mesmo cientista político q errou todas as previsões nessa eleição continuará comentando na próxima eleição? Pq ele não tem #skininthegame. Quem corre riscos reais p/ cada decisão tomada, perdendo ou ganhando de verdade, se erra ou acerta, sabe do q estou falando.
3. Sobre Taleb:

“Idiosyncratically brilliant.” - Niall Ferguson

“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” - Daniel Kahneman

-----

Pessoalmente acho o cara um mal educado, mas assertivo.
Read 6 tweets
Today #RWRI 10, we discuss:
How the "calibration" ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong

1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won't survive, option traders can be right ~1%
#ergodicity
2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter.

Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space.

Survival=calibration.
Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is "more likely to go up", yet is very heavily short.
Read 5 tweets
Mesopotamia

Invented Metallurgy, Agriculture, Writing, Sailing, theWheel, Chemisty, Pharma, Astronomy, LAW,(co)algebra, Algor, Calendar, Maps, Metrics...

Maintained techno superiority for 4600/5000y of history.

So fraudster @stefanmolyneux now arbiter of their inferior "IQ".
#SkinintheGame dictates not talking about an idea (such as #SkinintheGame) shallowly, w/o a deep investment, here is my recitation of Hammurabi's code in ancient Babylonian (Akkadian) w/proper Semitic gutturals.

Yes, I know enough Babylonian to argue Molyneux is a fraud in it.
This inbreading/cousin marriage theory is another crackpot by IQ-genes-race pple who NEED to find genetic (not cultural) degradation.

First effect of inbreeding is systematic diseases. & you see MORE among Ashkenazis so stop the IQ link & crank-science.

Read 10 tweets
"IQ" THREAD

"IQ" measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs.

1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on "WHY is he asking me that?", which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John)
2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation.

Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones.
3- Look at the hordes with "high IQ" (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion.

Yuuge survivorship bias.

37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998!
Read 34 tweets
There has been an epidemic of generalizing every tiny individual & particular conflict in life into something large & systemic, tied to "exploitation", "race", "gender", "colonialism", & ancestral "privilege".

Same pple view the world top-down & see benefits in centralization.
3- There is a category of bubblegumheads (say @jaketapper ) who not only overgeneralize but misgeneralize on top: say turning the pullout in Eastern Syria as a US vs Putin.
Quite insulting for the citizens there with #skininthegame
Read 3 tweets
The problem is architects building structures to impress other architects --but plumbers don't act on impressing other plumbers.

Any activity where agents impress peers (architects, academia) rather than satisfying the needs constituents ends up rotting.

#SkininTheGame
There is an additional problem with architects and modernity: reduction in the fractal dimensions of our world.

medium.com/incerto/surgeo…
2- Ancestral architecture: no Euclidian geometry, high dimensionality. Even pyramids when close show rich micro-patters (Met in NYC).
Today's architecture is "smooth", Eucledian, & of low dimensionality.

I am most comfortable in a forest, a cave, or a Gaudi bldg.
Read 4 tweets
1- Ignore surveys.

Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line.

Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w/50 min wait.

Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences.

#SkinInTheGame
2- How to make a survey work by via negativa.

To assess if a book will survive, find an academic/someone who plays the system. If they say "well organized", "well written", or "original", odds are the book flops.

If they say "messy", "whimsical", the book will outlive him/her.
3- Current bibles: The Bible, Wealth of Nations, Das Kapital, Works by Aquinas, Montaigne, etc. They fail editorial criteria.

Editors don't understand books, Academics don't get scholarship. Why?

@rorysutherland : employees' objective is minimizing blame in case of failure.
Read 3 tweets
My lecture at the conference Dec 10-11 in NY will be exactly why statements like this one by @PTetlock are total BS.

Why forecasting without #SkinintheGame is nonsense, how to be rich you need to be a "bad" forecaster.

mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy

@spyrosmakrid
Except for that hitch they were great forecasters

My lecture at M4 (thread) explains why such statements by @PTetlock (and his work) on forecasting are total BS and how they worsen with fat tailedness.
Read 5 tweets
THE AGING OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

I've had a Tesla for 17 months, 13K miles. Not a single problem. Maintenance: only parts that experienced wear/tear were the windshield wipers.

The press represents PR from oil lobbies.

Electric cars don't age as fast as regular cars.
This property (electric cars don't age fast) I had noticed in the comparative price of used cars ("refurbished"). Logically, on average, the fewer the moving parts, the fewer the problems: not a lot of entropy.
Tesla might not be a flawless diamond, but you could smell a smear campaign by the usual culprits, the propaganda machine for middlebrow called the New York Times, heavily compromised in its subservience to Saudi Barbaria/Oil lobbies.

theguardian.com/technology/201…
Read 6 tweets
Le agenzie di #rating.
Vediamo di analizzare qualche punto, dato che il loro impatto sull'economia italiana non è irrilevante, che Salvini e Di Maio lo vogliano/credano o no.
1. Sono imparziali?
Lo speranza è che lo siano, studi empirici e la pratica dicono che non è proprio così al 100%, ma la situazione dopo la crisi del 2007-2008 è migliorata. In questo caso va dato atto alla regolamentazione di aver fatto qualcosa di buono.
Però, dal non essere perfettamente imparziali (come voi coi vostri figli), all'essere completamente corrotti ce ne passa. Anche se i media si concentrano su Moody's, S&P e Fitch (le 3 maggiori), va detto che le agenzie minori condividono quasi sempre il giudizio delle più grandi.
Read 19 tweets
1) Someone sitting in the comfort of a think tank office (with a fridge full of yoghurt drinks) dictating what aid people on the ground in Syria should receive in order to satisfy her grand principles.

#SkinintheGame.
2) The problem of Near East conflicts is that those with skin in the game have been sacrified for the sake of the principles of those with no skin in the game.

medium.com/incerto/peace-…
Read 3 tweets
Where a 100% left wing crowd agreed with my message:

+ Localism, bottom-up
+ Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies
+ No enterprise without #Skininthegame
+ No abstract scale-free universalism

A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist "left"
2) These "leftists" even agreed that":

The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists

The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators)

Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries
3) Many are actually IN FAVOR of having "pundits" inflict risks on others with impunity": those are members of the bureaucratic state.

Lawrence Summers @LHSummers EXPLICITLY opposed Skin in the Game in favor of "risk analysis" (debate in Las Vegas).

Read 4 tweets
Mr Gary Kasparov, @Kasparov63, I am currently in North Lebanon as I am writing these lines. Would you agree to come LIVE here if Assad is removed?

Yes/No please.

I am really fed up with bullshitters who don't pay a price to the consequences of their actions.

#SkinintheGame
Mr @Kasparov63 fails logical thinking/meta at many levels.

He derives his "expertise" & fame not from intellectual contribution or risk wizardry, but from moving w/ B&W pieces.

So we are entitled to wonder abt transferability of such knowledge to risk.

Again, I have NOTHING against chess players. Some have done great things (Nick Patterson, cc: @iosif_lazaridis), many traders, etc.

But I have pbm allowing someone who is JUST a chess player to both fail elementary reasoning & use chess for credibility.

Read 3 tweets
Karl Popper, in his Open Society, describes to a "T" the crowd of unelected patronizing "experts" who want to run the lives of people and call those who oppose them "populists". Beautiful Plato vs Socrates passage.
2) The biggest irony is that what Soros calls his "Open Society" activity is about as un-Popperian as it gets.
More Popper on the IYIs, the nudgers, the Platonic "experts".
Even gun control...
Read 4 tweets
1) We now have to face the fact that what is called "social science" and "evidence based" is scientifically shown to be equivalent to "bullshit vending". Except less elegant, of course.

Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame
2) 2 ½ years ago I proved MATHEMATICALLY p-values need to be lowered by at least 1 order of magnitude.

Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by.... 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted.
3) The REPLICATION CRISIS a VINDICATION for citizens SICK & TIRED of the Harvards w/a sense of entitlement treating practitioners as immature pple lost without their "science" when it is STATISTICALLY shown Harvards are no better than Ms Bré, fortune teller.
Read 4 tweets
1) The NYT vs #SkinInTheGame.

It is very dangerous to favor those good at explaining but not understanding over people good at understanding but not explaining.
2) Traditionally those "communicators" good at explaining are the charlatans, BS Vendors...

medium.com/incerto/surgeo…
3) The Propaganda Times (formerly kn0wn as NYT) article misses that those who can't do can't do for a reason, an epistemological reason: they often know the wrong things.

So we make pple who know the wrong things teach the wrong things for the sake of "pedagogy". This is fraud.
Read 3 tweets
Statistically flawed statement: no such claims can be made under high variance power law.

#SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology... or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin...
From work/discussion with @financequant: BTC doesn't even have a variance, steep power law.
3) To simplify, this is the #FooledbyRandomness effect: @paulkrugman is pontificating from NOISE, not signal, and the first thing one should teach students is to learn to make a difference between noise and signal.
Read 3 tweets
1/
I think @Noahpinion is basically arguing that because America is made up of whites (baseline crime rate) & blacks (5x white crime rate), adding illegal aliens (1.5x white crime rate) lowers the average RATE of crime by diluting the black population, even as it increases crime
@Noahpinion 2/

...at least, this is the only explanation that squares @Noahpinion 's statement that "illegal aliens lower crime" with the FBI crime stats.

Noah, is this a fair understanding of your position vis-a-vis how illegals affect crime in Germany and in the US?
@Noahpinion 3/

I agree with Noah here - the more you dilute African populations, the more the crime falls.

We could add 20 million Hispanics and lower it a small bit, or 10 million Swiss and lower it a LOT.

Read 11 tweets
My lecktchur on #skininthegame: No guts no glory, no risk no victory,
adapted from Racine: " A vaincre sans péril on triomphe sans gloire", itself adapted from Seneca:

Ignominiam iudicat gladiator cum inferiore componi et scit eum sine gloria uinci qui sine periculo uincitur...
I mean Corneille
Trishank @trishankkarthik summarized the tawk in a series of tweets: just note that I prefaced (par.) "as a scholar I don't want to a good speaker, good speakers are usually charlatans"

Read 3 tweets
CHAMPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGNE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Monsanto lost the trial.
It is not about Glyphosate. It's that the manipulation of science by corporations, the bullying of scientists does not pay!
They didn't just lose a case. They lost another 100.

Now I will go after the shills who contacted NYU.
Sweet victory....

It is particularly powerful that the legal system (torts) protects citizens, while regulators are in collusion w/industry: the EPA/FDA let Monsanto ghostwrite their rules. Regulators are bribed by industry as they get hired later as payback.

#SkinInTheGame
Read 7 tweets
The thing holding people back from education that would give them a high paying job is:

a. It’s expensive. (Yes loans exist, but)
b. It’s incredibly risky to rack up huge loans. What if it doesn’t work out?

Solution: Let institutions (schools) hold the risk #skininthegame
You would be amazed at how quickly schools would improve if they only got paid tuition when students are successful
As a student you only have one shot, and very limited information around careers/job markets. Student loans could financially ruin you *forever*.

Institutions have resources to research job markets very thoroughly and portfolio theory.
Read 3 tweets
Imbeciles are attacking @RonPaul on "racism" (from a gaffe) when in fact there is NOTHING racist in his political/economic program.
This is called "bigoteering", exploiting an error to demonize.

Charlatans focus on what people *say* not what they *mean*.

medium.com/incerto/the-fa…
bigoteering: coined by @tferriss
I coined pedophrasty, etc.
The idea of #SkininTheGame: watch what people do not what they (or their staffers) say.

Ron Paul opposed every war. Unlike these virtue signaling frauds who caused wars.
Read 3 tweets
What intellectuals don't get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY:

OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US

Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame

Gabish?
2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up.

Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions.
3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war.
& as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place.

So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles.
Read 7 tweets
If employees of UBS knew how to run simulations, they wouldn't be employees of UBS, but customers of the Private Banking group of UBS. How can't people think in 1 ½ order effects?
Giving Germany a 25% chance of winning is a very arrogant statement, it is equivalent to giving Germany ~100% chance of making it to the semi-final.

Don't listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability.
Very similar to elections. Under high variance, you go closer to 1/n probability per team, where n is the number of teams, with minor variations (except for the very bad teams such as Saudi Barbaria).
The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets.
arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351…
Read 6 tweets

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