Thread by @hashoveride

Both @DigiEconomist and @CambridgeAltFin make their data available to the public. I have had both data sets integrated into my Bitcoin model since early 2021.

Here's what happens when you combine their electricity estimates with historical network hashrate data.
🧵👇

https://twitter.com/DigiEconomist/status/1512807420472528900

Both data sets assume that the Bitcoin mining network now is LESS efficient now than it was two years ago in 2020.

@DigiEconomist model was showing that at the time of the China Mining ban, the #bitcoin network was operating at the AVERAGE efficiency of a 5 year old Canaan 741.

Due to the undisputed fact that #bitcoin miners become more electrically efficient over time, the only way for this inefficiency to increase is to replace newer more efficient machines with older less efficient machines.

So we are to believe that

1. #Bitcoin miners are destroying the planet out of monetary greed

AND

2. #Bitcoin miners are deracking newer, more profitable machines for older, barely/not profitable machines during one of #BTC mining's most profitable periods?

#WhichIsItAlex?

Not only is this an absurd position, it directly conflicts with @DigiEconomist own paper, "Bitcoin's growing e-waste problem" which claims that the useful lifespan of a #Bitcoin miner is ~18 months.

#WhichIsItAlex? 18 Months or going on 61 months?

By drastically underestimating electrical efficiency you drastically overestimate electricity consumption by multiples of.

This is clearly evident in both the @DigiEconomist and @CambridgeAltFin models, but significantly more so in @DigiEconomist.

Reverse engineering @DigiEconomist data at the time of writing this, the est. w/TH of the entire Bitcoin network is approximately 115 w/TH.

This is 15% less efficient than the original #bitmain S9 released in July 2017 and 44% less efficient than an S9 with @braiins_systems.

Interestingly both @CambridgeAltFin and @DigiEconomist maintains more than one estimate for electricity consumption.

Notice how in the Cambridge model the upper, lower and middle estimates vary but all follow the exact same pattern/trend.

Now look @DigiEconomist. There are two estimates but they dont follow the same trend. Why is that?

Well the lower estimate actually follows the stated methodology on the website.

The main estimate that feeds all the statistics is more or less a series of straight lines.

It is this main estimate which is used to create all the summary statistics which are overstating consumption by multiples of.

You can read more about this here:
bitcoinmagazine.com/business/clima…
bitcoinmagazine.com/business/not-s…

Let's debate @DigiEconomist