Thread by @CFieschi

🇨🇵In case anyone had forgotten-- 1st round of #FrenchElection today. There has been a lot of scary talk over the past few days about #MarineLePen. Here are a few thoughts (bit of a thread!). Macron and MLP are neck and neck. They were pretty close in 2017 and came in within

3 points of each other. This time it may be closer. Most serious polls place Macron on roughly 26.5 and MLP on 23. Bus some suggest it may be tighter--and refer to it being 'within the margin of error' (i.e too close to call). It's important to keep in mind that, even if MLP were

to achieve a higher score than Macron in this first round. It doesn't change much. They both go forward to the second. One might argue also that a high score could entail a bigger mobilisation against her in the second round. So why do things feel scarier this time around?

One reason is that a face off with Le Pen was what Macron had wanted all along because it was likely to be a cakewalk for him, like in 2017, and that is not quite what polls suggest. Polls suggest he'll beat her (serious #cevipof #ipsos poll says 53/47) but not by a huge margin

(as a reminder in 2017: Macron came in at 66 and MLP at 34). Why is MLP doing better? Because she has softened her image (for anyone who might have drunk that Kool-Aid, go read her programme--hair-raising far right stuff. She's just smart enough not to talk about it on prime time

TV); The presence of extreme right #Zemmour has done much to make her sound respectable in comparison; she has run a campaign tailored to her strengths (local, small scale) this time around; and she managed to simply weather the initial Putin storm (which might have sunk her

given her ties to him) simply by ducking the issue. In a word, she discovered there is mileage in being low-key). Macron on the other hand came in late to the campaign and is associated with the war in #Ukraine and rising prices. A section of voters fear that sanctions are going

to hit them hard and Macron is held responsible. Above all, Macron is truly loathed by sections of the French population. This is a big contrast to 2017 when Macron had no enemies. He now has a loyal base, but lots and lots of haters. And while the war in Ukraine initially

boosted him, that has worn off (see sanctions fears above).
So is there a significant possibility of an MLP victory? My spidey-sense sense says no. But there is a small possibility of one (7% or 8% - - as a comparison @FiveThirtyEight gave Trump nearly 30% in 2016), but an MLP

victory would be such a cataclysm for France and for Europe (and by extension the current security situation) that it is worth monitoring very very closely.
So what should we watch?
First, Macron's capacity to really campaign in the next two weeks. To call out MLP on her ties

to Putin and to paint a picture of the economic cataclysm that her victory would be for her voters. This was not enough during the #brexit campaign - - they need to do better. But as $$$ is a key concern for MLP voters, it could work. Second, how Macron fares in the main debate

against MLP will be crucial. Last time she came out of that having lost. Can he do it again when his campaign has so little momentum (he's been busy with other stuff)? Finally, we need to watch turnout on April 24th. This is notoriously hard to predict, but it will matter.

However the low turn out (expected) could go either way--people who hate MLP and Macron may stay home because they resent having to vote for Macron to block MLP. And that kind of thing is wearing thin. And that would be bad for Macron obvs. But traditionally abstaining is

the hallmark of younger voters - - who are now MLP voters. So she could suffer from that.
FWIT, I personally think MLP will lose--though not by the same margin as last time. But it hugely depends on Macron's performance in the next crucial two weeks ahead.