Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 42-46: The past 100 hrs. have seen increased Russian focus on the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Ukraine has mounted a series of successful counter attacks against Kherson, threatening Russian control there. #UkraineRussianWar

2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.1 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Russian forces allowed 3,425 civilians to be evacuated from Berdyanak & Mariupol, while another 529 civilians were evacuated from Melitopol.

3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average above 10 mph. These conditions will degrade air & artillery strikes, while ground movement will be slowed.

4/ Kharkiv OD. Russian activity in the Kharkiv area has consisted of air, artillery, & missile strikes fixing Ukrainian forces in place while SOF raids target critical infrastructure. Russian forces in the area are screening movement south to Izium. #Kharkiv

5/ The Ukrainian General Staff stated in their 07 April Operational Update that 5x BTGs remain in the Kharkiv area. Tying down Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv denies their ability to allow for significant counterattacks in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk Operational Direction.

6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. The Donets River Line, Severodonetsk Salient, and former LOC running SE to SW from Popasna to Donetsk now constitutes the principal Battle Zone of Russian operations. Expect continued assaults to achieve decisive results. #Donetsk #Izium

7/ It is still assessed that Russian forces will likely attempt to create a cauldron out of the Severodonetsk Salient & portions of the LOC to be reduced by artillery and air strikes. This approach would minimize the need for a large ground force to take & hold territory.

8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Limited attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces continue between the line running from Vasylivka to Volnovakha. #Zaporizhzhia #Melitopol

9/ Mariupol. Ukrainian forces have lost the ability to maintain a contiguous defense of Mariupol, meaning Ukrainian forces are now isolated in unsupportive pockets of resistance. It is likely that Russian forces will reduce the smaller pockets before a final assault on Azovstal.

10/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS air sorties continue to be conducted during hrs. of limited visibility to avoid SHORAD systems. Russia & Ukraine increase missile strikes against critical infrastructure. Russia is using suicide drones. liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-apri…

11/ Chem-Bio-Nuclear. Russians in Rubizhne have been targeting chemical planets causing damage to storage cylinders with 4 tons of nitric acid. It is possible Russia intends to claim the fallout from a strike like this is a deliberate attack by Ukraine. liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-apri…

12/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian forces in the Severodonetsk Salient take heavy losses for little gain. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, eight attacks were repelled along the Donbas LOC with numerous Russian tanks, armored & unarmored vehicles being destroyed.

13/ Information advantage. British PM Johnson & Pres. Zelensky tour Kyiv. Ukraine continues to display keen diplomatic savvy in building new partnership & expanding on old ones to gain access to critical resources to sustain its national defense.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1512897668246384640?s=20&t=LSE-Ffyun4LlzuR7k-wOFg

14/ Occupation Resistance. Ukrainians in occupied areas of the Kherson & Zaporizhzhia Oblasts continue to resist Russian attempts to establish control. Russia continues to detain suspected resistance leaders.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1513128236494069761?s=20&t=LSE-Ffyun4LlzuR7k-wOFg

15/ Overall Assessment. There is still time for Russian forces to potentially set conditions for some measure of success in east Ukraine. Without a clear victory by late spring 2022 both sides will be faced with the reality of a prolonged war either can afford to wage or lose.

16/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

17/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

18/ Omission Correction – Odesa/Kherson OD. Russian forces are coming under increasing pressure both inside Kherson & outside from Ukrainian counterattacks from the west. Russia is in danger of losing a key decisive strategic point if they are unable to successful defend Kherson.