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Apr 11 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
#Ukraine_Moldova: Kyiv insists that Russia can engineer the Transnistria provocation. I have explained to several Western journalists that such a scenario is not plausible. Here are my main arguments that I didn't change since Russia has started the war: ⤵️
1) Russia cannot guarantee military and other supplies by land; Odesa is under the control of the Ukrainian authorities; 2) If something happens by air, the Ukrainian side will get those involved and the Transnistria region at risk of being affected and causing huge damage ⤵️
to critical infrastructure; 3) The local elites of the breakaway region are not interested in being dragged into the war and will do so only if Russia takes control of Odesa. What is also important to note is that ⤵️
Chisinau must engage in dialogue with the separatist authorities and clarify emerging disputes over imports to the region. To rule out any negative scenarios, while the Russian aggression in Ukraine continues, ⤵️
it is convenient to downplay the existing tensions in the dialogue with the separatist administration and not vice versa.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 9
#EU_Ukraine_Russia: Von der Layen made it clear that the sanctions serve to punish Putin (who should pay a high price). He highlighted several aspects: 1) After the 5th package of sanctions, a new one is being prepared ⤵️
(the same was communicated by the Austrian Chancellor Nehammer); 2) The EU applies a system of "continuous" sanctions (which do not have to be reconfirmed periodically); 3) EU states have seized more than 225 billion euros of private assets (exports to Russia decreased by 70%,⤵️
more than 700 foreign companies left, etc.); 4) Von de Layen emphasized that while Russia is facing economic decline, Ukraine is moving closer to the EU; 5) The EU offers a new financial assistance package (in total, about €1 billion):⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 5
#Russia_Sanctions: The EU presented the 5th package of sanctions that has 6 pillars:
1) coal import ban (worth €4 billion per year);
2) exclusion from the EU market share of four key Russian banks, including VTB (23% market share in the Russian banking sector);⤵️
3) ban on Russian ships entering EU ports (exemption of essential elements: agricultural products, food, humanitarian aid, energy resources); and ban on Russian and Belarusian road transport operators;⤵️
4) export bans (worth €10 billion) on quantum computers, advanced semiconductors, sensitive machinery and transport equipment;
5) new import bans (worth €5.5 billion) on wood products, cement, seafood and spirits; and close the loopholes between Russia and Belarus;⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 5
#Russia_Sanctions: The EU will adopt tomorrow the fifth sanctions package combining trade, financial and individual sanctions. The following actions are considered: 1) prohibit the supply of semiconductors, high-tech equipment and LNG production equipment to Russia;⤵️
2) ban Russian imports of wood, cement, rubber, chemicals, "high-end food products" (including caviar), and spirits (vodka); 3) block all transactions with VTB Bank and three other (unnamed) Russian banks; 4) new individual sanctions to the oligarchs and their relatives;⤵️
5) prohibit the entry of Russian trucks and ships. The ban on importing energy is off the table. The chief of EU diplomacy Borrell points the finger at the ⤵️wsj.com/articles/europ…
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 4
#Russia_Sanctions: Germany and others demanded that Russia fulfill the gas contract in terms of currency of payment. That means that most of the EU states want to save the contractual provisions on gas supply not the viceversa. Consequently, an EU ban on energy imports⤵️
from Russia is unlikely (at least until the end of 2022, when some hope the war to be over and the need to cut off the energy imports to disappear). The EU's sanctions package, fueled by the evidence of atrocities of Russian army in Ukraine, may include a ban on the use of⤵️
European ports (except for the supply of agri-food, nobody wants a food crisis) and the disconnection of SWIFT for Sberbank and other smaller banks (not for Gazprom Bank, which is still important for the payment of gas).⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 3
#Russia_Sanctions: The new sanctions are justifiable and unavoidable. The question is whether they will affect energy imports from Russia or not. Also, will the new sanctions stop the war before the socio-economic consequences turn against the EU states? I see that Putin is⤵️
betting and willing that the EU states cut down the Russian oil and gas imports. Russia will lose revenue, but knowing Putin's cynicism, he is likely to expect the effects on Europeans to be harsher, even to the extent that they will start anti-government protests.⤵️
The perverse scenarios in Putin's head could even contemplate that with Europe destabilized, he could do whatever he wanted in Ukraine. Sanctions are necessary and should be applied,⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 3
#Russia_War: The evidence of Bucha is enough to invoke that Russian forces committed war crime by targeting civilians. Genocide apparently does not apply as the crimes were not committed by military forces originating from the territory where the killing takes place. Russian⤵️
forces are an aggressor who killed Ukrainian civilians. The Genocide Convention specifies two main elements: 1) A mental element: the "intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such"; 2) A physical element, with five acts:⤵️
a) Killing members of the group (ethnic, religious etc.); b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; d) Imposing measures⤵️
Read 4 tweets

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