It is 46 days since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today I examine what the Chinese Communist Party might be learning from Ukraine, based on my @smh article on this topic. 1/23 smh.com.au/world/europe/w…
2/23 The reunification of Taiwan with China has been a feature of many speeches made by Chinese President Xi. In his 2022 New Year speech he noted that “the complete reunification of our motherland is an aspiration shared by people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.”
3/23 The past 6 weeks will have been a profound learning opportunity for President Xi and the PLA in their quest to return what they view as a rebellious province.
4/23 It is important to understand the nature of the learning that the Chinese Communist Party leadership might take from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Of course, caveats apply.
5/23 Our western orientation often means we project our own thoughts and preferences onto those we don’t understand. We must be careful not to 'mirror image' our competitors and potential adversaries.
6/23 Noting that danger, we should attempt to divine what President Xi might learn from Ukraine. Because in appreciating where the Chinese may learn and adapt, we also inform our national security strategies and military modernisation programs. 
7/23 The key lessons for Xi will be political. I will cover military lessons in a subsequent thread or article.
8/23 The experience of President Putin may convince Xi that he needs to invest more in understanding the motivations of the Taiwanese, and their willingness & capacity to resist forceful reunification across all dimensions – economic, military, information, etc.
9/23 Putin’s greatest errors were to assume Ukraine was not a real country, and that it would only provide token resistance to any Russian intervention. From here all of Russia’s strategic & military errors have flowed.
10/23 Therefore Xi will have to rethink Taiwanese motivations and their capacity to resist reunification. But to do so, Xi may also need to hear from a wider range of different opinions.
11/23 Whether this is possible in a system where Xi has become the centre of a personality cult and relies on a smaller group of trusted advisers to make decisions, is questionable. thetimes.co.uk/article/12-000…
12/23 Xi will have been surprised by the rapid and robust response by the international community to the Russian invasion. This has resulted in a variety of assistance mechanisms being provided to the Ukrainians from Europe, the United States and beyond.
13/23 This means any Chinese attempt to take Taiwan will have to be very fast – and seek a decisive victory before western intervention.
14/23 Xi will also take note that the West has been very reticent to commit any humans to fight on the side of the Ukrainians. This is related to the next lesson Xi may have learned.
15/23 Putin has issued veiled threats about the use of nuclear weapons if the west intervenes in the Ukraine conflict. It has ensured that no western military forces have physically crossed into Ukraine.
16/23 This will encourage the Chinese to further invest in their nuclear deterrent. The annual report to the US Congress on Chinese military capacity in 2021 found the Chinese had already commenced a build-up of their nuclear forces. media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/20…
17/23 If there was any doubt in the Chinese President’s mind about the effectiveness of their nuclear force, Ukraine has probably removed such doubts. asiatimes.com/2022/04/china-…
18/23 The Chinese will have watched the strategic influence campaigns of Ukraine and Russia closely. Ukraine has run a model program to influence western governments and solicit aid and diplomatic assistance since the invasion began in February.
19/23 Given the decline in external trust in the Chinese government in the past five years, this is an area that will receive significant attention from the Chinese Communist Party – for its international as well as domestic activities. poll.lowyinstitute.org/themes/china/
20/23 Finally, the power of charismatic leaders matters. Xi must live in fear of a Zelensky-like President being elected in Taiwan. Such a leader would unify their own people against a Chinese threat and gain international support before or during a crisis.
21/23 While the Chinese Communist Party may not be able to prevent the rise of such a leader, they will certainly now be more focussed on the removal of such a leader in the immediate lead up to any military invasion of Taiwan.
22/23 The Russo-Ukraine War has delivered a massive wake-up call to strategists and defence planners everywhere. This includes the leadership of the Peoples Republic of China as well as the People’s Liberation Army. It is perhaps as important as the 1991 Gulf War to them.
23/23 The political & military lessons from the Russian invasion are likely to have a major impact on Chinese strategic thinking & military transformation in the coming years. We need to understand these to inform our own strategic recalibrations. End
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