Thread by @minna_alander

What could/will be the implications of a Finnish and Swedish NATO membership ?

Some speculative thoughts from both a Finnish/Nordic and NATO perspective (1/10):

With a very heated debate and the skyrocketing support for joining NATO (from around 20% to almost 70% within 2 months), there are valid concerns in Finland that joining in such a haste might not be ideal as 🇫🇮 has not had time to prepare its own NATO policy. 2/10

However, 🇫🇮 & 🇸🇪 joining NATO will make Nordic defence cooperation (#NORDEFCO*) more straightforward when all Nordics are NATO members.

Finland will naturally closely coordinate its NATO policy with its Nordic partners. 3/10

*NORDEFCO atm: Finland and Sweden EU but not NATO members, Norway and Iceland NATO but not EU members, Denmark member in both but opt-out in EU’s CSDP. 4/10

For Finland, it simply makes sense to join NATO now. If one major reason not to join was maintaining good relations to Russia, that is now obviously history. 5/10

https://twitter.com/pesumatti/status/1514522468773502979?s=21&t=GigF9uHhaKTbD0mwmQzn1Q

Another argument against NATO in the 2000’s was the US attempts to use NATO as a kind of global “regime change police”. That did not materialise and NATO’s role is going “back to the roots” again due to the necessity to (re-)contain Russia. 6/10

https://twitter.com/pesumatti/status/1514522471080284162?s=21&t=BSmcJmu7ukLmn61k44VaeQ

Some voices in 🇫🇮 fear that we’re already too late to the party and NATO will not deliver what we need if (a) Trump(ist) will be elected in the 🇺🇸 in 2024. Add the worst-case scenario of MLP as 🇫🇷 president withdrawing from NATO’s integrated military command structure and 🥶 7/10

With 🇫🇮 & 🇸🇪 in NATO, 1/4 (8 of 32) members would be from the Nordic/Baltic region. Given the rising significance of Baltic Sea security due to Russia’s aggression, it could mark a shift within NATO to a focus on Northern Europe. 8/10

…Especially if Germany can be convinced of the strategic relevance of the Baltic Sea region when #Zeitenwende starts happening and the UK will be integrated more tightly into NORDEFCO, and if 2024 the US and 2027 the latest France will withdraw from the centre of NATO. 9/10

It’s understandable that some people are nervous about the new 1300km long piece of NATO/Russia border. However, although Art. 42.7 TEU is somewhat of a toothless tiger, even without Finland in NATO, other EU ms wouldn’t be able to stay out of it if 🇷🇺 were to attack 🇫🇮. 10/10