Duo Nine ⚡ YCC Profile picture
Apr 15, 2022 18 tweets 11 min read Read on X
1/ Time to look at the main stablecoins, including people's favorite #UST which looks rather weak.

There is one undisputed winner, despite any criticism.

The reason? Adoption, liquidity, and volume.

The rest are kings in their niche. A thread 👇

#USDT #USDC #BUSD #DAI #UST Image
2/ Ranking by market cap is easy (see pic), but that barely says anything.

What is more important is volume and where this volume comes from!

Let's do a ranking by 7-day volume divided by mcap.

See next tweet for the results. 👇 Image
3/ WoW look at that #UST adoption... barely any. Even DAI looks better.

1. #USDT = 4.78 (392 bil volume / 82 bil mcap)
2. #BUSD = 1.59 (27 / 17)
3. #USDC = 0.58 (29 / 50)
4. #DAI = 0.28 (2.5 / 9)
5. #UST = 0.20 (3.4 / 17)

Clearly, USDT and BUSD are in their own class.

Why? 👇
4/ Binance, the largest exchange in the world, drives most volume for USDT & BUSD (their own stable).

Binance listed UST. Yet, KuCoin drives more volume. Seems people are not that interested.

But what about... DeFI for UST?

As a decentralized stable volume is there right? 👇 Image
5/ The largest DEX on Terra pulls $100 mil volume per day on the Luna/UST pair (pic).

Not bad, yet DAI also pulls similar numbers across Uniswap (70 mil) + Curve where fees are much higher since they use the ETH network (pic).

Remember, DAI market cap is HALF of UST!

Huh? 👇 ImageImage
6/ Of the five stablescoins we have, UST is the weakest.

Its market cap (17 bil) is inflated and sits in Anchor doing nothing (over 70%).

In contrast, BUSD, with a similar mcap pulls over 3 bil in volume per day!

UST? 400 mil / day. But at least UST is decentralized, right? 👇
7/ Not when 12 bil in UST (out of 17 bil) sits in Anchor protocol. That is not decentralization, sorry.

UST = king in Terra ecosystem. But that's it.

So what is the alternative and who's the real winner here?

Let's look at DAI and work ourselves up to USDT. 👇 Image
8/ #DAI is a decentralized and overcollateralized stablecoin (pic)

Most of its volume is from Binance + Coinbase + DEXes like Uniswap

A nice balance

Yet, it has two shortcomings: it can't scale easily (depends on borrow demand) + is capital inefficient (collateral needed). 👇 Image
9/ But at least DAI is a sound & proven stablecoin that can back up its mcap with real collateral in times of need (pic).

You can't say that about UST! Got to be careful there.

DAI = king on DEXes as a decentralized stable

Now let's look at centralized stables. 👇 Image
10/ #BUSD is basically PAX Dollar (#USDP) with a different name. Binance used PAX to issue it.

It's centralized and 90% of the volume is on Binance.

BUSD = king on Binance, nowhere else

That is it. PAX is a proven name in crypto, so should be safe.

USDC next 👇 Image
11/ #USDC is issued by Circle and most recently BlackRock announced they will manage USDC!

BlackRock is the largest asset manager in the world with $10 trillion in assets under management (AUM).

If there is a stablecoin challenging the top spot, this is it.

Can it flip USDT? Image
12/ It's only a matter of time. USDC is positioned to become the de-facto digital dollar.

Plus, USDC has massive adoption in DeFI (ironic as it may sound) and centralized exchanges.

See that pic? Uniswap DEX has 3 spots in top 10 for USDC, plus Binance and Coinbase.

But... 👇 Image
13/ No matter how you look at USDC, it remains a centralized, censor-prone stablecoin.

This means your USDC in your own private wallet can be frozen = your address on the network can be blacklisted together with all your USDC.

So you go back to... DAI? Think twice 👇 Image
14/ For decentralization maxis, DAI has too much exposure to USDC as backing.

Check the pic, 51% in DAI is backed by USDC.

However, you can now tell there is a 'special' synergy between USDC & DAI. Indeed.

They are the best stablecoins, centralized & decentralized.

Hmmm 👇 Image
15/ USDC is positioned to be the top stablecoin & its use cases will equally be applied in decentralized + traditional finance (DeFI/TradFI).

USDC at 50 bil will soon catch up on USDT at 82 bil which does not enjoy the same trust in DeFI.

USDC = king of stables

So USDT? 👇
16/ #USDT continues to pull the highest volume + liquidity across centralized exchanges, but not on Coinbase (which focuses on USDC)

Nor will you see any DEXes using it

Clearly, USDT is on borrowed time as the top stablecoin

USDT = king on (some) centralized exchanges

Next 👇 Image
17/ Plus, Tether has major trust issues as it was very obtuse about its backing for USDT in the past

Audits are scarce and even so, people don't trust those numbers.

Why use USDT when you can use USDC?

There is only one place at the top & BlackRock is the top.

Tick, tock. 👇 Image
18/ If you liked this thread, #retweet the first post to get more of this content in the future! 😍

Stay in touch + follow @DU09BTC:

Discord: bit.ly/3n2gng0
TradingView: bit.ly/3FUjwHj
YouTube: bit.ly/3p8vPdf
Newsletter: bit.ly/3BuXf13

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More from @DU09BTC

Jul 20
BREAKING: You don't have an exit plan, do you?

The market pumps, Trump gets elected, you're looking at Lambos, but there's one thing missing.

You didn't sell. Here's how to do it with conviction!

A long-ass thread (1/19) 🧵 Image
2/ There are five actions you must take to win at this game:

1⃣ Have an exit plan.

If you don't, you will miss your exit window and end up like the guy in the picture.

Lets explore that next and hit a follow @du09btc to never miss out. Image
3/ That guy didn't sell and his $4 mil paper profits turned into 77k.

I'm here to teach you how to avoid that rookie mistake.

TLDR: Sell whenever it is life-changing!

The long version starts next. Image
Read 19 tweets
Apr 9
🚨 There is a hidden war on Solana between big players.

Users have no clue, but the consequence of that are endless failed transactions!

There is only so much space available and the ones with the bigger guns win.

Here's what they don't tell you. A thread (1/10). 🧵 Image
2/ Big players on Solana are at war. How?

They DDOS each other for block space priority.

The victims of this war are Solana users. You can't get your transaction confirmed because big players take up all that space for themselves to come on top.

Here's how they wage war. 👇 Image
3/ A specific Solana wallet can be attacked by spamming it from +100 different bot wallets.

You DDOS it every second with the smallest Solana unit = a Lamport or 0.000000001 SOL!

What happens next will surprise you. 👇 Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 2
🧵 Issuing $100 mil DAI to farm USDe is one thing, issuing billions is asking to get hurt.

Why does MakerDAO plan to risk it and mint $1 bil DAI to farm Ethena yields?

Can DAI depeg when USDe inevitably falls under $1?

A bold move or something else? A thread (1/20). 👇
2/ This post was inspired by AAVE Chan founder @lemiscate who raised the alarm.

TLRD: He's right. MakerDAO actions are reckless and fueled by greed.

But if you take a closer look at the risks for DAI, a new image emerges. 👇

3/ MakerDAO is printing free cash right now, at your expense, of course.

They issued 100 mil DAI which can only be accessed by borrowing it against USDe/sUSDe collateral.

At a HUGE costs for users & mega profits for Maker - 66% APY on 100 mil!

What's really happening here? Image
Read 21 tweets
Feb 20
1/ What Ethena has built is impressive & hard. A short 🧵

The reason every big name is on board is the opportunity for profits.

For every perpetual long in crypto, Ethena will be the counterparty farming the ETH funding rates you pay.

A day after launch, USDe TVL is $300 mil Image
2/ Ethena is impressive due to its scale, complexities required and parties involved, but also benefits.

USDe is a synthetic stable 100% backed by a delta neutral ETH position farming yields:

50% stETH (spot), 3-6% APY
50% ETH short position, funding rates <30% APY

Nice eh? Image
3/ Exchanges (DEX & CEX) are happy because of all that liquidity & volume & fees.

USDe stakers (sUSDe) are happy because the yield is real.

USDe users are happy because they have a censorship resistant stable + ETH users see prices go up.

But at what risks? Plenty of that. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 6
🚨 Are Liquid Staking Tokens (LST) creating a ponzi?

▫️ I stake ETH and get stETH
▫️ I re-stake stETH and get lpETH
▫️ I re-stake lpETH and get xxETH
▫️ ...infinity...

stETH lost its peg vs ETH in the past!

This will turn into a giant crash one day.
Image
Image
You cannot create more value from NOTHING!

Restacking and LST tokens start to sound like ponzinomics to me.

Every cycle of re-stacking is just MORE LEVERAGE on the original asset, i.e. Ethereum!

When the peg WILL be lost, it will be BRUTAL.

Plan for it if you use LST. 100%!
Oh and if you think your ETH is safe in stETH, it's not!

You can lose all your ETH by staking. The risk is real and material.

The bigger this LST bubble gets and the deeper you go in the cycles, the higher your risk of losing it all.

If you value your ETH, don't do LST. 👀
Read 4 tweets
Dec 15, 2023
🧵 The best trader in the world is Jim Simons.

Average yearly return of 66% for 30 years. His Medallion Fund is open only to his staff.

His secret? Mechanical trading using computers and gazillions of data to predict the future.

He lived in 2023 back in 1988. But there's more! Image
2/ To join him you need a degree in computer science, mathematics, physics or statistics.

Out of 300 employees, 100 have a PhD in the above. If you're a Wall Street trader you wont be hired.

In the beginning, he failed as a trader using traditional methods. Image
3/ As a math genius, he knew he could build an algo to beat everyone else and remove emotion from trades.

“If we have enough data, I know we can make predictions.”

His algo works best at $10 bil before returns decline.

Their data set grows by more than 40 terabytes a day. Image
Read 11 tweets

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